It's all about greed

Oil has collapsed - but gasoline prices in Russia will rise: how is it? Experts explain

For several weeks, the price of Brent oil is restless: after the October jump, now it goes even more sharply. If in October the barrel of oil cost $ 85, now it ranges at about 65. In the evening of November 13, the most sharp collapse occurred - the cost of a barrel in one day collapsed by almost 7%, that is, by $ 5. Experts explain what was happening by the introduction of American sanctions against Iran and told the “new” what such fluctuation in price for the Russian market means.

On the evening of November 13, OPEC published its monthly report, which states that in 2019, global oil demand if there is an excess of proposal will be lower than previous expectations. It was this publication, as experts say, that became a kind of “trigger” for quotes.

Recall that in early October, the oil price increased to $ 85 per barrel, which was waiting for an early deficit due to US export sanctions from Iranian oil. But then it became known that Russia, Saudi Arabia, as well as American Slantsy oil manufacturers increased production, compensating for possible damage. At the same time, the supplies of Iranian oil did not stop completely due to the exceptions that Washington made for 6 months for eight major buyers, including China and India.

Analysts now associate a drop in oil prices with a possible overabundance of the offer. In addition, on November 14, OPEC, in addition to publishing a report, announced the need to reduce prey - a decrease in production can be up to 1.4 million barrels per day. Donald Trump categorically spoke out against this, he wrote on Twitter: “I hope Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not reduce prey. Oil prices should be much lower, based on the offer. ”

Russians hope that gas prices from falling oil prices will decrease is not worth it.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said that "oil did not take it to such an extent that it was profitable to sell at the domestic market at current prices." And there is no need to worry, according to Kozak,: “There is no crisis and cannot be. Well, no, it may be, if oil falls up to $ 12 in world markets, then there will be a real crisis. ”

Vladimir Lyashchuk

Leading analyst Promsvyazbank

"Oil is still too expensive and will not knock the price of gasoline"

- In the future, we expect the quotes will soon return to the mark above $ 70 per barrel, and this will be facilitated by the OPEC Plus decision, which can be made on December 6, on a reduction in oil production by 1.4 million barrels per day. This will allow in 2019 to return quotes to the previous levels.

If the decision to reduce it is made, in the first half of the next year we expect a shortage. Accordingly, the quotes by the end of the year can return to a level above 70, but next year it is likely to decrease in the region of $ 63, and this will be an average annual price, since oil production in the States will increase. Accordingly, at the end of 2019, there will already be a surplus on the market. It is known that there is progress in achieving this agreement, and in the near future, perhaps the growth of quotations will be recorded. At the same time, there is a less likely scenario - the departure of quotations below $ 60 per barrel, and this will mean that the market does not expect an agreement. But we consider this option less likely.

Of course, with a decrease in oil quotations, the ruble weakens. However, according to our forecasts, oil will return above $ 70 per barrel - and this will support the ruble. And the price of gasoline for the domestic market will not fall, because the cost of oil is even too high now.

Marseille Salikhov

Head of the Economic Department of the Institute of Energy and Finance

"The decrease in Iranian oil exports will not be as large as it seemed"

- Usually such sharp jumps do not occur, this is a fairly rare thing. The factors that contributed to the reduction have developed over the past few weeks. The news came on Iran: that some countries were given the opportunity to buy Iranian oil calmly, without sanctions.

At first, there were expectations that on November 4 was coming, and the United States limits everything, and they provided a wide range of countries with such an opportunity. Of course, it is clear that they greatly limit volumes, now they will buy much less than before. But this was new information, to which the market did not particularly react - a decrease in Iranian oil exports would not be as large as initially it seemed to everyone.

On the other hand, the OPEC Plus meeting did not bring any news. And this is also a negative factor, because there were expectations that “OPEC Plus” would say something that “we are ready to reduce prey and so on,” and this brought nothing. These are the factors that contribute to the reduction, but the market did not particularly react to them then. And yesterday, apparently, an additional trigger occurred.

Typically, oil is traded in such a way that jumps occur on certain days, and then there are no large fluctuations for several weeks.

Mikhail Krutikhin

Partner of the Consulting Agency Rusenergy

"Prices for Russian gasoline are not related to oil, but are determined by the greed of the government."

- A bubble from excessive investments in paper oil has accumulated. The bubble was supposed to burst, so it burst - in one day they sold more than $ 50 billion of various paper barrels, futures, forwards. It became clear that OPEC was not going to lower the prey that everything is normalized in Libya, in the even position of Venezuela, no one wants to leave the market, and demand does not grow as we would like. It was necessary to drain it, it turned out like a handle and drain everything that is not necessary.

The realization that this would happen began on October 4, when oil reached a peak - $ 86 and almost 40 cents per barrel. And gradually, throughout October, there was a decrease, and then it broke through.

Prices for Russian gasoline have nothing to do with the price of oil in world markets. The price of Russian gasoline is determined by the greed of the government. How much the government will increase taxes, the price of gasoline will increase so much. From January 1, VAT will increase, an excise tax on fuel will increase, from July 1 an increase in excise tax is still planned. In such conditions, will the price remain in the same place? No, she will grow.