“When will this disgrace end? If you wait, then - for a long time "

Advisor to the First President of the Russian Federation Georgy Satarov that our fears are the reason for the irremovability of power

"When you succumb to fear of evil, you already begin to feel evil of fear."
Bomarsha, "Seville Barber"

I want to admit that there are many phenomena and entities in the field of politics that are incomprehensible to me. Absolutely incomprehensible. And I really envy many political scientists and journalists who understand everything. This is apparently because I am not a political scientist and not a journalist. Well, one example, let's say. For many, many years they have been explained to us that after Putin it will be worse. If there is no Putin, then the fascists, or NATO, or the Communists, or ... no, I can’t remember. But I clearly remember one of my sleep. Putin has been ruled for 127 years, and suddenly he dies. And you know who is on our head after it? You will not believe ... Martians! And they feed on human lymph. Ours with you. (Or did I read about this somewhere? Or maybe I dreamed that I was reading? Or did I dream that I dreamed of this?).

This is a certain world, in the center of which he, Putin, and around him rotates everything, both bad and good. And in this Ptolemye model of the world it is indispensable

Honestly, I don’t know what Putin wants, what he thinks about, what he is afraid of, what he dreams about ... But I still believe that he is very, very afraid to lose power. And this is not original. Many are sure of this. And what am I worse? And I guess that he himself does not hide from himself (sometimes) why he is afraid of the loss of power. And as it usually happens, he replaces these thoughts, constructing, in particular, a certain world, in the center of which he, Putin, and everything rotates around him, both bad and good. And in this Ptolemaic model of the world it is indispensable. Remember how he talked? This is when he said that human civilization is not needed if Russia is not in it. He meant himself. After all, he is simultaneously convinced that he is Russia, and Russia is it. More precisely, he was convinced of this.

In other words, Putin is sure that after him it will be worse. And therefore he must always rule. Logical? Yes, logical.

By this (if only by this!), By the way, he differs from Yeltsin, who renounced the throne, when he decided that now it would be better after him. Looking at Yeltsin as a close example of such politicians, I am perplexed. On the hell, we all need politicians, after which it gets worse than it was before their arrival? After all, it should be the other way around! Here the politician left, and it became better. So it was not for nothing that he came and was. If everything were like that, then we would have seen all the time as life is getting better and better. After all, if on the contrary, then it is just degradation and disappearance. Isn't it clear? Well, just think about it: what happens to the world, in which after the departure of each politician it becomes worse!?

But this article is not about Yeltsin, and not about Putin - it is about us sinners. Putin, as it seems to me, is on the drum that will be after him - better, worse or “all to heaven”, as he dreams. When he thinks or says that it will be worse, it is like autopsychotherapy. (This, by the way, reminds me of the ancient rites of burials in some archaic cultures, when, together with the deceased leader, they sent his wife, horse, servants, etc.) about the fact that after Putin it would be worse, and his propagandists - they have such a job. But why do many of us think so!?

Our psyche always attaches much more importance that has not yet occurred, loading them with the help of our imagination by many catastrophic consequences

Our fears

Here, for example, NN. Very cute, intelligent, well -read, thinking gentleman (or lady, no matter). And he writes some nonsense, repeating these propaganda nonsense. He (she) is not a fan of Putin; understands what is happening in the country; He knows that life here could be different, better. But he writes. I'll try to explain how I understand it. He (she) does not have a son, who was fucked up by propaganda and who died as a result in the DPR. He (her) did not put a bottle of champagne in the police station in the ass (well, then God was merciful). He (from her) did not select a business. He (she) is not a businessman, but a person of a scientific (creative) profession. And much more bad did not happen, from the known to him (her). And life is generally normally going: they publish, print, invite you to radio or scientific conferences throughout Europe. And my daughter has a good family. And they settled well (her husband was invited to Cern). But so much terrible can happen. For example, the Nazis can come (and one of the grandfathers was a Jew). Or at least the left. And then they will definitely not print, and they will not publish. And they will drive from HSE. NATO - no, this is garbage. Like Martians. And under Putin, neither the left nor the Nazis will come.

Here, I dare to assume, the NN works for this effect. He (she), reading posts on Facebook and news on Echo of Moscow, records all these events that are perceived by him (her) as abominations. But the more there are, the smaller they seem. Even the tragedies (Borya! They killed Boris!) Has over time, displaced by other numerous abominations, which we count not for months, but by the clock. After all, a rather solid and stable life serves as a contrast. And these all infinitely small abominations are poorly summarized to turn into something integral and capable of absorbing, covering this good and stable life of yours. Our intuition is poorly summarized by infinitely small values.

And one more chip. Our psyche always attaches much more importance to the events that have not yet occurred, loading them with the help of our fantasy by many catastrophic consequences, in comparison with any combination of abominations that have already occurred, but we did not directly cover us. Here is a funny example. When the politicians of England in the 18th century decided what to do with dissatisfied colonies in North America (with thirteen states), the overwhelming point of view was that the independence of these colonies would very quickly turn England into a third -rate European country. As a result, the colonies lost, and missed the real chance to create an alliance of England and the English independent states (which, by the way, there would be no point in uniting then). By the way, by the time this problem arose, the metropolis has already made a lot of abominations. And with England, by the way, nothing happened after the loss of the colonies. The first one entered the industrial era and constructed the empire, "which the sun did not go over." Stupidity? Certainly. But the history of civilization could follow a completely different path ...

People for the mass are generally afraid of change. And even more so - Putin’s nuclear electorate, elderly poor old women from villages and small cities and, in a considerable share, officials and security forces

So, if you, my wise readers, connect the last chip with the previous effect, you will understand NN. And maybe even sorry. But the result will not go anywhere: NN thinks about Putin’s departure, dreaming at the same time about free and honest elections (“Now, if he himself! After all, Alexander II could be the Liberation and Nicholas II Bloody). But NN belongs to the category of educated, intelligent, well -read, thinking. So what can we say about the huge number of people who are the vast majority of people who are not related to this thin layer, who were also not yet tortured in the police station; who did not have and no successful business, and will not be; In the niece of which a drunken priest did not crash at the wild speed on the landlord when she was standing at the bus stop; Living a simple and stable life to which they are used to. And they are afraid of any change. People for the mass are generally afraid of change. And it is not very clear why they (changes) still occur. And even more so, what can we say about Putin’s nuclear electorate - elderly poor old women from villages and small cities, as well as a considerable share of officials and security forces. For various reasons, they also believe that after Putin it will be worse.

And now the main question: “Can it get worse after Putin?” The answer is obvious - yes. Therefore, there is a more interesting question: “How does it depend on it“ will become worse ”on the life of Putin’s stay in power?” And here the unambiguous answer is difficult. Here are two different answers. First: well, it is clear that the longer it is in power, the worse it becomes in the country (this is just the point of view that I share). And it is clear that the worse in the country with him, the less chance that it will become worse without him. Well, just extrapolate this situation to the point “There is no longer right” to which this trend is striving for, and everything will become clear: if Putin has “nowhere worse”, then after it it simply cannot become worse. After all, “nowhere”! Logical? Logical.

And here is the second answer: let's think about what it means “getting worse” and strives for “nowhere worse.” This means, including that the most intelligent, talented, active; The opposition is rotting; Citizens are nome and limp; The surroundings of the aging dictator are saturated with bandits and scum ... All this leads to the fact that after him the weakening power falls into the hands of one of these scum, which makes with a demoralized country and with a degrading society everything that he wants. Worse? Worse. Logical? Logical. "Yeah!" - says gambling nn - "I said (spoke)!" By the way, Putin (God forbid him) at that moment anyway. And to us?

It follows that the unambiguous answer to the question "How will it be after Putin?" does not exist. And it is also clear that there are more options than the two that are described above. For example, because even Putin and even for a fairly large time is difficult to bring the country to a state “nowhere worse”. This is in me inborn pessimism. After all, life is complex, and therefore, no matter how bad it is, there is always an opportunity to make it even worse.

If Putin has become “nowhere worse,” then after him it simply cannot become worse. After all, “nowhere”! Logical?

Driving forces of change

But the main question is not whether it makes sense to experiment and wait in the hope of seeing with your own eyes how far this whole fan can go. I hope not to justify this. The main question is: “What (on whom) depends on how it will be after Putin?” Here is my answer. Not from Putin. Not from power. From us. From society. From active society. Moreover, the more complicated and bustle the situation in the country becomes, the more it depends on society. Society is more, more diverse, chaotic than power. And this is his strength, his adaptability, his innovation. His ability to find a solution to problems.

I say, I repeat, about an active society in which it is a shame to spend time and intellectual efforts on justification of inaction (such as the wise “nothing will work out”), in which it is customary to act without wasting time to convince others that “we need to do only as I do, not you”. There is nothing fatal for society (except passivity) than monotony.

I want to remind my favorite parable. The son comes to his father and asks: “Dad! Well, how much more should we wait for this disgrace to end!? ” And dad replies: "If you wait, then for a long time." I do not call anyone for anything and do not teach "what to do." But I know exactly what to avoid. And you yourself decide what and how you, everyone, personally, can and will be done. And there we'll see.

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