How much the Russian economy is actually growing, why the collapse in the United States has ceased and what D&G angry the Chinese

The Ministry of Economy announced the growth of Russian GDP by 2.5%. Why shouldn't this figure be trusted?

Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. Photo: government.ru/(CC by 4.0)

Russian statistical departments continue to publish abnormally optimistic numbers that are difficult to trust. Yesterday we wrote about the implausible increase in the income of Russians and investments. And today, the chief economist of Alfa-Bank Natalia Orlova harshly criticized the statistics of the Ministry of Economy on GDP growth in October 2018 by 2.5%: "This figure does not reflect the real state of affairs."

• The growth of the Russian economy in October by 2.5% of the Ministry of Economy recorded in the monthly report “Picture of Business Activity”. This figure is explained by the growth of production in agriculture (11.9% in annual terms after a decline by 6% in September), industrial production (3.7% against September 2.1%) and construction (2.9% against September 0.1%). The Ministry predicts that according to the results of 2018, GDP will grow by 1.8%, in 2019-by 1.3%.
• This figure “does not reflect the real state of affairs,” writes Natalia Orlova in his review. The Ministry is based on the growth of industrial production and investment for the third quarter of 2018, but, according to the economist, these indicators are achieved due to large projects in mining - and this makes the growth structure weak and makes us doubt the acceleration of investments. But the main thing is the acceleration of GDP growth “contradicts the obvious deterioration of the consumer trend”: the growth in retail turnover in October (+1.9%) set the anti -record from August 2017, unemployment has grown and retail lending has fallen. All this means that the growth of consumption will slow down further, the economist concludes.
• Analysts interviewed by The Bell do not think that it was incredibly optimistic numbers that the Ministry of Economy and Rosstat began to publish closer to the end of the year - the result of political pressure, as it was , for example, before the presidential election in February. The vast majority of statistics do not indicate the possibility of such growth - but monthly data is extremely unstable and can then be adjusted, says Professor Rash Oleg Shibanov. The Ministry of Economy always considers this indicator superficially, and then significantly reviews, confirms the analyst IR “Opening Broker” Timur Nigmatullin.

What am I to me?

In 2019, the development of the situation in the economy will mostly determine consumption, Orlov from Alfa Bank is sure-and it, according to its forecasts, will grow by only 1.5%in 2019. This means that the entire Russian economy in 2019 will grow by only 0.8%. World GDP, according to the IMF, should grow by 3.7%.

Bell Club

MONEY

The collapse has stopped, but this is not the end

Like the previous sharp correction at the end of October, the current collapse of the American stock market, which began on Monday-Tuesday, did not last long-but it was too early to talk about the complete restoration. In the first hours of today's trading, indexes grow again: NASDAQ - by 1.37%, S&P500 - by 1%. The main victim during the collapse, Apple (lost 7% in two days), also in a small plus - 0.23%. Oil also shows the same weak signs of recovery - the Brent barrel at the time of sending the mailing listed by $ 1.8 and costs $ 64.3 (yesterday it was cheaper below $ 62).

How Sergey Galitsky lost money

Over the past four years, the state of the founder of the Magnit network, Sergei Galitsky, has decreased almost four times - from $ 14 billion to $ 4.1 billion, Bloomberg calculated . In 2014, the businessman took third place in the ranking of the richest Russians according to the agency, but since then the capitalization of Magnit, who, in 2016-2017, who gave leadership in the Russian market the competitor X5 Retail Group, fell from $ 30 billion to $ 5.4 billion. Galitsky himselfsold its 29% of the Magnit State VTB in February 2018 for 2018 for 2018 138 billion rubles (at that time - $ 2.4 billion).

Signals

Interpol is not ours

One of the most discussed international intrigues of the last week is allowed: Major General of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Prokopchuk lost the election of the head of Interpol; The head of the organization was the South Korean policeman Kim Jung Yang, who gained 62.3% of the vote. It was Prokopchuk who was considered the favorite before the elections, but his candidacy caused protests of Western countries. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged Interpol to vote against Prokopchuk, and Lithuania and Ukraine threatened to leave the organization in case of his victory. Interpol is not the most influential international organization, but Prokopchuk’s victory would help Russia freely issue “red notifications” (actually an international arrest warrant) to persecute its opponents, FT wrote .

PRACTICE

Dolce & Gabbana angry the Chinese

The advertising campaign of the Italian brand Dolce & Gabbana suddenly turned into a racist scandal and losses: before a fashionable show in Shanghai Dolce & Gabbana, she posted several videos in social networks, in which a woman of Asian appearance tries to eat Italian food. The Chinese did not appreciate the humor - the company accused the company of racism and the spread of stereotypes. One of the English -speaking blogger, who was indignant on Instagram, wrote in personal messages he was written by Stefano Gabbana. He stated that if the Chinese see racism in rollers, then these are their problems, and also reminded that the Chinese eat dogs and therefore can also be considered racists. The next day, the company deleted the videos, announced the hacking of official accounts (both the company and the Gabbani pages) and was forced to postpone the show. However, this is far from the first time with Gabbana’s account - for example, celebrities regularly listen to insults from this account.

The best businessaries about business

A small business that has switched to renewable energy in order to remain competitive, the story of one of the main designers of our time, stories about the super-fighting and super-worn managers of American hedge funds and the story of a person who revolutionized in educational television-Business Insider has gathered eight most interesting documentaries about the business that were released in 2018.

Fun

Yandex.Taxi without icons

Yandex.Taxi forbade drivers of premium and business class to leave personal items in sight in the cabin- including icons and rosary. Users drew attention to this rule: “God is everywhere, here I am bored. The icons in the car were banned, and this will not be able to etch me out of me, ”the driver told activist Mikhail Konev after crossing himself, passing by the Cathedral of Christ the Savior. The company explained that customers often asked for this (along with smooth ride and drinking water in the cabin).

Peter Mironenko