Translated material
Global revenge policy
NT continues the discussion about what Putin is counting on. Political scientist Alexander Morozov believes that the trouble is that the President of Russia abandoned the rational approach
What is Putin counting on? More precisely, what he is counting on now, when he is already assumptions that he plays well with bad cards on his hands and that he is good tactics - remained far behind.
This question cannot now be answered in old logic.
Change of paradigm
The whole post -war world policy was economical: it became a synonym for the actions of governments that provide macroeconomic stability and conduct a balanced protectionist practice, taking into account the interests of partners. This character of politics became especially vivid after the collapse of the two -block system - after the collapse of the USSR and the disappearance of the socialist bloc. To a large extent, the very word politics was replaced by the word “management”, and all its models considered all its models well in his well -known book “Load. Power and government in modern societies ” (1999) Dean Mitchel.
The Kremlin’s policy was also completely in the logic of economic rationality. But in 2014, the Kremlin made an attempt to destroy Ukraine as a state, having been struggling for almost a year for the creation of the so -called Novorossia. And this led to a radical turn of the entire domestic and foreign policy of Moscow itself. Where where? To another understanding of “political” in general.
Instead of arranging life, it is proposed to direct the efforts of the nation into an unknown future, to offer it left or right -wing political utopia, to divide it into vanguard and Aryagard. Give the vanguard a special, as if a unique understanding of his mission, create a special interpretation of common words for him. Such as sovereignty, culture, values, civilization and even freedom, dignity - almost any familiar political concept can be given an exclusive meaning, that is, such a meaning that deeply distinguishes “us” - from “all of them”.
The attack on Ukraine entailed the Kremlin’s transition to the ideology of the global revenge. Prior to this, there were different similar ideologies in Russia-a “special path”, “conservative revolution”, National Bolshevism, etc. But they were marginal. After 2014, they moved from the edges - to the center. This is the ideology of the conflict and the complete revision of global political architecture. No one can say whether this will lead to disaster or victory. And if to disaster, then how it will be overcome. And if to victory, then it will not be Pyrrhic.
The opportunity to act without any look is opened. It is impossible to predict the next step with some probability, since this policy acts already in conditions of continuous emergency
It does not matter in the new paradigm how much the resource regime has. Hyperactive policy is always pursued in conditions of radically smaller resources than the alliance of your opponents. Secondly, it does not matter that the bulk of the population continues to be in a state of philistine consciousness and is not passionate about the global leadership of the world. It always turns out to be drawn up by the vanguard into a situation of risk, victims and a high popular fate on the conditions that the movement dictates.
Thirdly, the opportunity to act without any look at is opened. There is no one in the world who would have large grounds for free, unilateral action.
It is impossible to predict the next step with some probability, since this policy acts already in a continuous emergency. The course begins to represent a series of errors balancing a friend, risky moves with an unknown result. At the same time, each such step is dictated either by the logic of the revenge , or the logic of restoration of the balance , or the logic of a preventive blow , etc.
Putin's movement
It is believed that Putin not only does not have his full -fledged party, but there is not even a political movement. But this is a mistake. It is. It’s just that now it’s not an industrial era with a large number of agrarian population. This is already a post -industrial world with a different role of media, networks and large cities - and with a different nature of political forces. For ten years, Putin created a “corporate state”, and then he finally rebuilt one attack against Ukraine and society under this corporate state. And immediately inside it that group of influence, which was called security forces , turned into a political movement from an ordinary corporation. To which representatives of other classes are also connected.
This movement does not create a party for itself, but it does not need it, as it was in the first half of the twentieth century. It manipulates various institutional forms, including as if party.
Putin does not rely on any calculation. He now leads his imaginary people on a map taken from another globe. On this globe, the EU has already broken up under the pressure of internal contradictions, the United States abandoned the previous role, and the technological lag does not mean anything compared to the presence of a large army of hackers
Now it is impossible to predict where this movement will go, which has learned a completely separate idea of national interest, sovereignty, threats, since it acts outside the connection with the logic of bargaining, the exchange and generally recognition of any rights of the other. It passes into a certain heroic state, which should overcome any resistance and go beyond any boundaries.
In relation to the goals of a state of emergency, it is appropriate to talk not about the calculation, but rather about the horizon. The calculation would immediately lead to the conclusion about the suicide of such a policy. Putin does not rely on any calculation. He now leads his imaginary people on a map taken from another globe. On this globe, the European Union has already broken up under the pressure of internal contradictions, the United States abandoned the role that they played after the Second World War, financial capitalism is in a vulnerable position, NATO no longer provides protection for Europe. Over 50 years, another 3 billion of the population and the demand for hydrocarbons of giant hydrocarbons has been added to Planet Earth, the technological lag does nothing mean compared to the presence of a large army of hackers, nuclear weapons no longer serve as a fundamental deterrence factor - and there are no “institutions” that we must reckon with.
And there are only people - with whom you can either agree (getting along) or not. There are reasonable people with whom we agreed around - 30, 20, 10 years ago or yesterday. Their faith, ideology, their personal history does not matter, and it is only important that we agreed with them.
Sovereign is completely free. He does not need to justify the beginning of the war with some calculation of the beginning of the war. The war is declared simply because it is sacred in nature. Each decision should be made as fate, fatum.
There is such a recent apocrypha. During the last presidential election, Grigory Yavlinsky met with Putin and told him: “Do you really realize what you are doing? You are leading Russia to war! " To which Putin in his manner, jokingly answered jokingly: “Do not worry, Grigory Alekseevich! We will win. "
This is the calculation.
Read the same:
Andrey Kolesnikov, "Patriarch of All Rus' is required"
Ivan Davydov, "President and his mission"
Georgy Satarov, “When will this disgrace end? - If you wait, then - for a long time "
Vladislav Inozemtsev, "it will not be worse"
Fedor Krasheninnikov “What is Putin hoping for? On a miracle! "
