The strait is unlocked, the incident is not exhausted

Putin once again checks the world community. He will draw conclusions at the end of this "exam"

Russia unlocked the Kerch Strait (blocked after the shooting and detention of three Ukrainian ships ). The freedom of international shipping has been restored. Is the incident exhausted? Yes, and no. Probably, in the near future, Moscow will return the captured Ukrainian ships and, I believe, crews. However, the sediment, as they say, will remain.

Revenge Putin

I am far from the idea that Vladimir Putin spends his days in the continuous observation of the satellite shooting of what is happening in the Sea of ​​Azov. But I have no doubt that the “go -ahead” was given to the Kremlin to capture Ukrainian ships. What is clear now?

The current action of the Russian authorities is, it seems, the answer to the detention of the Ukrainian border guards of the Crimean Nord Crimean vessel with the crew on board March 25 this year. Kyiv claims that Nord was engaged in illegal fishing in the territorial waters of Ukraine, and crew members (all the owners of Russian passports issued in Kerch) “violated the departure procedure” from the “temporarily occupied territory” of Ukraine.

Similar incidents happened earlier. Ukrainians detained Russians, and Russians - Ukrainians. However, the story with the Nord was special. The Ukrainian authorities decided to teach the Kremlin. Firstly, they decided not to return the ship, but to sell at auction. Secondly, the crew was exchanged for Ukrainian sailors detained by Russian border guards. But Captain "Nord" is going to judge for violation of the border. He has been facing five years.

Putin could not allow such humiliation and repaid Petro Poroshenko Storitsa, capturing not the old seiner, but three warships, albeit small. Now the skipper "Nord" can be exchanged for captured Ukrainian sailors

Putin could not allow such humiliation and repaid Petro Poroshenko Storitsa, capturing not the old seiner, but three warships, albeit small. Now the skipper "Nord" can be exchanged for captured by Ukrainian sailors.

The command of the border troops, which are part of the FSB, like the rest of the Russian security forces, knows very well: most of all Putin is afraid to seem weak. The conflict in the Kerch Strait is a clear demonstration that this most important (and most predictable) element of the Kremlin policy remained unchanged. And this is the most important in all history.

*Kerch Strait was blocked after the shooting and detention of three Ukrainian ships *Photo: Twitter

Exacerbation game

If you believe the Russian and Ukrainian military, published by the Kyiv portal LIGA.net, the Ukrainians really passed the 12-miral coastal zone, including the Crimean water area, which Russia considers its own, but Ukraine does not. But the ships of the Ukrainian Navy were already captured in international waters. That is, the task of Russian border guards was to aggravate the situation at all costs.

In recent months, Moscow has strengthened its military presence in the region. She regularly accuses Ukraine of various kinds of violations, pursues Ukrainian warships and civilian vessels, plus experimenting with the electronic warfare against the Navy of Ukraine, and, more importantly, with NATO naval forces in the Black Sea region.

Now the Russian government is testing a world reaction to violation of the fundamental principle of international law - freedom of international shipping. Blocking the Kerch Strait, albeit less than a day - a frank call not only to Ukraine, but to the whole world. The European Union performed quite harshly. But whether this statement will turn into specific measures is unclear.

The United States has so far remained silent, although, apparently, the Permanent Representative to the UN Nickei Haley will make a tough statement at the upcoming emergency meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to the crisis. NATO countries, it seems, will also hold a meeting of the North Atlantic Council and condemn Moscow. But in general, while Ukraine is left alone with Putin. The Kremlin will carefully monitor what will follow.

Sanctions from Moscow

The Kremlin sent Kyiv and another signal: it is worth closing the Kerch Strait (and Putin showed that it could easily do this) - and the Ukrainian economy will seriously suffer. After all, a significant part of the export of a neighboring country goes through the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. Moreover, the cargo turnover of the Mariupol port has already steadily falling, starting in 2014.

Whatever the current incident ends, the damage has already been done. Investors who could be interested in deliveries through the ports of the Ukrainian Azovya will now think, and already working in the region can leave.

The social networks were overwhelmed by the next war of the conspiracy theories in the range from “Poroshenko provoked Putin to raise his rating and remind the electorate that he was the Supreme Commander -in -Chief,” to “Putin gave Poroshenko’s slap in order to raise his rating, which fell after the decision to increase the retirement age in Russia.” Both that and the other are fantasies on a free topic. Poroshenko would not risk uncontrolled escalation, which could demand from him more decisive, truly military operations than the introduction of martial law. Putin’s rating is hardly greatly changed as a result of this conflict. In order for him to rise markedly, a longer and, of course, the victorious military campaign will be required.

Putin once again checks the world community. He will draw conclusions at the end of this “exam”.

Chronicle of events in the Kerch Bay

November 25

4:00 Kiev time (5 Moscow time). The boats "Berdyansk", "Nikopol" and the tugboat "Yana Kapu" approach the strait.

7:00. The Russian ship "Don", operating in the group of warships, along with Sobol, Mangust and Suzdalz, rammed Yana Kapu.

12:20. Two Ukrainian warships of the Gyurza class left the port of Berdyansk.

13:12. Russia lifted the Ka-52 helicopters into the air, and then (at 15:30) Su-25 attack aircraft.

18:00. The strait has already concentrated 8 warships of Russia.

20:20. Ukrainian ships were fired.

21:00. Russia captured Berdyansk and Yana Kapu along with crews.

Read about the Ukrainian and pestile reaction to the events in Kerch here

* Konstantin Eggert-international journalist, columnist Deutsche Welle