Military position

But there is no big war yet. Why does Russia and Ukraine lead the Kerch crisis? On the air, Roman Tsimbalyuk, Pavel Felgenhauer, Vladimir Fesenko, Alexander Gorny, Anton Naumluk

What are the consequences of the Kerch conflict of Russia with Ukraine? On which side is the world community? Is there any possibility of deepening the crisis? What does Vladimir Putin count on?

The program “Faces to the event” of the crisis in the Sea of Azov and the introduction of martial law in Ukraine is discussed by the correspondent of the Agency UNIAN Roman Tsimbalyuk, a military expert, the Novaya Gazeta observer Pavel Felgenhauer , Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, blogger Alexander Gorny, Radio Liberty correspondent .

Mikhail Sokolov is broadcast.

Video version of the program

Mikhail Sokolov: On November 25, Russian border guards with the use of weapons detained the Yana Kapu tug and two small artillery boats Berdyansk and Nikopol of the Ukrainian, who were heading from Odessa to Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. The conflict of Russia with Ukraine, the introduction of martial law in Ukraine will discuss our guests.

About the latest news now the plot of the Reuters agency.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on Tuesday evening supported the introduction of martial law. A special legal regime will operate for a month in areas bordering Russia and an unrecognized Transnistrian Republic. The bill was supported by 276 deputies, 30 opposed, one refrained. Thus, the parliament approved the president’s initiative, although in a slightly abbreviated form. Petro Poroshenko proposed introducing martial law for two months.

Petro Poroshenko: I emphasize that special measures will be involved only in the case of the ground operation of the regular troops of the Russian Federation outside the territory of the United Forces in the Donbass and outside the illegally occupied Crimea.

Particular excitement of parliamentarians caused a restriction of a number of constitutional rights, including selective, which involves the introduction of martial law - in anticipation of the beginning of the presidential campaign, this topic is especially relevant. Rada adopted a document guaranteeing that the vote will not be postponed and will take place on March 31.

Kyiv states that martial law is a response to the seizure of three ships of the Ukrainian Navy, which were heading on Sunday from Odessa to Mariupol through the Kerch Strait. According to Moscow, two boats and tugboat illegally crossed the boundary of territorial waters and did not respond to coastal guard requests. Border guards fired and detained ships.

The UN Security Council on Monday discussed the situation in the Kerch Strait. Representatives of Western countries called the incident "extremely dangerous" and called on Moscow to release Ukrainian ships along with crews. US Messenger Nikki Haley reproached Russia for "reckless escalation."

Mikhail Sokolov: I am looking now, there are different messages that the Interfax agency gives that the Ukrainian sailors found a summary of the Rules of Swimming in the Kerch pass. Apparently, something else would be strange for them to find.

The novel, what do you say, the Russian military has applied force, does this mean that Russia has committed an act of open and unprovided aggression against Ukraine?

Roman Tsimbalyuk: It is clear that we have elections in the country, passions boil. But in fact, the first position is that the results of voting on amendments to the Constitution for all disputes, when issues relate to national security, then even a cheerful parliament always finds ways to unite in the right moments.

When they are especially stated in Russia that Peter Alekseevich Poroshenko wants to introduce martial law in order to transfer the elections, any sane person, including the President of Ukraine, understands that if he now has a chance to win, and if he tried to cancel the elections, he will not be re -elected. I think that the team of the current president understands this. Now as for our ships.

This is not an act of aggression, but another act of aggression. The adoption of a law on martial law is essentially a military-political answer. Because not to react in any way, it is probably ridiculous. Russia once again showed that this is an aggressor country, excuse me, an unsuccessful state, which from the lips of the president says that we are one people, but in any case, the Russians shoot to defeat.

This Kerch example was very indicative. Why am I saying that Russia, as a country-commune, behaves absolutely unmotivated, what really was? The Kerch Strait, according to all the agreements that Lavrov, including Ukraine, refers, has the right to use it. Our ships left the port of Odessa, headed to Mariupol, they requested a passage, but the Russians decided that the Sea of Azov seemed to be common according to the documents, but only Russia had the right to use it. They pulled out a barge to the middle and closed the passage, planes began to fly and so on.

Mikhail Sokolov: The situation simply turned out there, it is not very clear: 12 hours passed between this event and the capture of ships.

Roman Tsimbalyuk: They stood there, waited for them to do. The forces are unequal, no one is going to blow up the Russian fetish of the Crimean bridge, they turned around and went back. In the end, they were caught up, fired, wounded by Ukrainian troops and captured. They attacked them in neutral waters. This suggests that Russia is none other than an uncontrollable country. Now they talk about the fact that our president wanted to introduce martial law in order to transfer the elections. Therefore, unfortunately, Russia takes an active part in our election campaign. The Russian President has a direct impact on this.

Therefore, according to his press secretary, Vladimir Vladimirovich almost personally gave the order to shoot. If he was in the know and did not agree, then, probably, somehow influenced it. On the other hand, he always emphasizes that, as the Commander -in -Chief, he bears responsibility for this. The situation is simple and banal. In fact, nothing has changed from the point of view of the domestic political situation, we have minus three ships and 24 prisoners of war. This is Russian know-how to judge prisoners of war.

Mikhail Sokolov: In the Soviet Union, prisoners of war were judged, by the way, there were many falsified processes. Vladimir, I wanted to ask you what the effect of this story today, I mean the political effect? Many are surprised at this: why was it necessary to introduce martial law right now, but before it was not introduced after bloody battles for Ilovaisk or Debaltseve, when Russian, Airborne Forces, Consolidated detachments and tank units participated directly in these clashes? What fundamentally changed?

Vladimir Fesenko: I will give you an argument from the opposite. In Russia, perhaps, they do not take into account the emotionality of Ukrainians on Sunday evening and on Monday. Let us imagine that the president and the Security and Defense Council of Ukraine would not have reacted or said: yes, we are outraged, we will turn to our international partners. And all. Already in the evening of Sunday, many Ukrainian politicians on social networks: we must give an answer, you need to urgently collect parliament, introduce martial law. For the first time, this sounded not from the president, but on social networks and from even opposition politicians. If the President and the Council of National Security and Defense did not make such a decision, they would be accused of not using their powers, that they act negligently, that they show inaction. I think that the president simply had no other choice.

Another thing, in my opinion, is a certain mistake or there may be a desire to combine the interests of national security and interests related to future elections manifested in the details that concerned the validity of martial law. 60 days - this was the term that created problems to start the election campaign for the presidential election of Ukraine, this could provoke the transfer of the election date a month later. I would not see some kind of disaster in this, but this gave rise to very big suspicions of the opposition.

The opposition at a meeting of the parliament on Monday, supporting the idea of introducing martial law, required adjustment on the validity of martial law and for some other substantive moments. Although a little scandalous, a certain compromise was achieved.

Now, as for why they have not been introduced before - this is a subject for discussion for four years. In my opinion, this is due to two groups of factors. The first factor, which, incidentally, manifested itself partly yesterday, just differently, is the position of our international partners-they are afraid of the escalation of the conflict.

As far as I know, in 2014, both during the annexation of Crimea and in August during the battles for Ilovaisk, and then they categorically advised the Ukrainian leadership before Poroshenko, and after Poroshenko became president that there were no steps that could be perceived as a conflict escalation from Ukraine. Martial law in the West was perceived precisely as the risks of the escalation of the conflict. In addition, immediately after Ilovaisk, the end of August - early September, negotiations on the first Minsk agreements began. If martial law was introduced then, who knows it, it would be possible to sign the first Minsk agreements or not.

The situation was similar to Debaltseve and the second Minsk agreements. Then, after Debaltsev, there was no obvious direct reason for the introduction of martial law. 2014, the main factor that influenced the behavior of the authorities and why they did not go to the introduction of martial law - these are elections. If martial law was introduced, then it would be impossible to hold parliamentary elections. And then and now there was this dilemma - elections and national security. Then they made a choice in favor of holding re -election to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, therefore they did not introduce a martial law regime, now they have found a flexible compromise: martial law is introduced for a month, but the elections will be held, set the date of the elections, as provided for by the constitution, March 31.

Mikhail Sokolov: Your colleague Mr. Ustenko, a good very economist in Ukrainian, says that it would be necessary to change the budget, since martial law is introduced, everything for the front, everything for victory. Certain expenses are needed, mobilization, apparently, others. In your opinion, will this be done, and will this affect Ukraine to receive Western assistance?

Vladimir Fesenko: As for the receipt of Western assistance, there are already clarifications from the IMF, they explained that they cooperated with the countries in which martial law was meant in mind Croatia in the first place. Therefore, as I understand it, this will not affect cooperation with the IMF. As for additional financing, as far as I know, I talked about this with some deputies, they say that the financing of those events that are provided for by the presidential decree, and this is the allocation of additional funds for military exercises, on the mobilization of reservists, their staffing, placement, and so on, some transport transportation, in principle, this is not very much money, they will be allocated from the reserve fund. If there is a need for more significant costs, then, then, you will probably have to make some changes to the budget. But so far we are talking about financing from the reserve fund.

Mikhail Sokolov: Pavel, what is being done at this naval theater, what can be called now? Does Russia create such a special naval group in the Sea of Azov, which can threaten Mariupol, Berdyansk? Some forces, I read, were transferred specifically to this region.

Pavel Felgenhauer: No, in general, nothing special happens at sea. There are actually no Ukrainian forces there. The bulk of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet simply cannot operate in the Sea of Azov’s sea effectively, since it is very shallow. So nothing will happen to the sea.

But what President Poroshenko is talking about, yes, there is a danger of a sharp escalation, in general, that the war will begin, a real big war.

Mikhail Sokolov: What are the signs of this? Any additional forces are transferred?

Pavel Felgenhauer: Forces to transfer at the last moment you need to be ready. That is, Ukrainians are also now preparing, and for this they introduced martial law, mobilization for a sharp increase in the combat readiness of the forces that they already have, preparations for mobilization of reservists, people with experience in the Donbass. Poroshenko said that the operation to seize Mariupol and Berdyansk, generally the crowding out of Ukraine from the coast of the Sea of Azov, was being prepared. This, in principle, is possible this winter, either at the end of December, or in early January, such an operation may begin.

However, it may not begin, it is definitely impossible to say for now. But the way the Russian leadership inadequately reacted to the completely legal passage of two tiny river boats, which themselves do not even threaten Russian interests, this shows how seriously they are tuned there. Now photographs of damage to the ship, which was struck by the boat, showed that the Ukrainian sailors were miraculously survived there, shot to kill them. That is, the cutting is struck there, including heavy weapons. I thought that they used a large -caliber machine gun there, there is a hole from a large -caliber machine gun, but there they used a rather powerful armor -piercing missile. These boats are armored, but they have antipolonal reservation, this is not suitable against serious weapons, they are not able to conduct hostilities with a serious enemy.

Russia, apparently, and Putin personally, is wildly annoyed by Ukraine’s intention to create a marine base in Berdyansk. In Russia, fears have already been expressed that NATO ships could come there, including the Americans, there are special ships that can act in shallow water that surpass everything that Russia can ever expand in any way in the Sea of Azov, and this can change the situation in the strategic region. Although they seemed to say NATO and the West that they are not going to go there on a friendly visit.

Russia uses the Sea of Azov for constant maneuver by forces, we have small, but armed with Caliber winged missiles. In principle, they are attributed to the Caspian flotilla, but they constantly through the Volga-Don channel, through the Azov and Black Sea go out to the Mediterranean, shoot at Syria, then return to the Caspian. If the base is created, small boats will be guarded, some Western forces will still come there, apparently they decided that this would generally become impossible.

Russia is quite possible to decide to carry out a limited enough operation on the left flank of the Donetsk Front, to oust Ukraine from the Sea of Azov. There is also a thing that Mariupol was always a port of Donbass, from where they took out coal, steel. Now most of the coal under the Russian forces, but they have no port. So Mariupol may be stormed, first they will surround, and then, if they do not give up, they will storm like Aleppo. This is a possible option, although it cannot be said that it is definitely inevitable. In general, it is a great conflict. Russian actions are absolutely inadequate in this Kerch incident that we have a very combat higher leadership.

Mikhail Sokolov: Still, in your opinion, the initial decision not to miss these Ukrainian ships, at what level was it accepted? The military, the FSB border forces have some instructions. They acted according to the instructions or immediately to the highest military authorities should appeal what to do in such a situation?

Pavel Felgenhauer: It is customary to always call in such cases. There was a rather long time to confront, they were not allowed, but they did not know what to do until they decided to stop, not to allow them. In principle, they always do this. When there was so much time for negotiations, then, of course, the decision was made at the highest level, president, prime minister, and Minister of Defense. The telephone, apparently, was a meeting, and it was decided to act, which was then lowered down. In principle, maybe they wanted to intercept them, just block them, but they dodged, so they began to shoot, it is possible that there was a blow from the air, and not just from the ships. The crew is small, only five people, apparently, was the sixth contract officer on board, they are all in the cabin of the ship, the rest was automated. There are two blocks from BMP, in fact it is the BMP floating, there it has two towers instead of one. Accordingly, he has such combat capabilities. So with poachers you can successfully fight, with smugglers. It was on this wheelbreaking that they opened fire. It seems that they did not get into anyone directly, but they are struck by fragments. Because when the armor is sowed, such fine sharp fragments fly. This, by the way, is a rather dangerous thing, although it seems that a person has hands, legs are intact, but it is quite difficult to extract all these fragments. I know the good acquaintance of Alexei Arbatov, he suffered so much when a helicopter in which he flew in Chechnya, knocked out, killed a pilot, and was sipped. Then they brought to Moscow, he began to infuse wild, barely pulled out. So let's hope that everything will be in order with these sailors, who are sicked by fragments. But actually they were ready to kill them-this is undoubtedly, judging by objective data, they are already on the network.

Mikhail Sokolov: Roman, what do you think, what is the Kremlin’s strategic task-to minimize the sea trade of Ukraine, destabilize the situation in the cities near the Azov coast, and then take advantage of this and take this piece, which they also tried to capture, in 2015?

Roman Tsimbalyuk: When I hear statements: we captured Crimea so that NATO soldiers would not come there. Now there are statements about Mariupol, Berdyansk.

Mikhail Sokolov: So that NATO ships do not come there.

Roman Tsimbalyuk: I think: where are the NATO soldiers? In general, everything turned upside down in Russia, turn on the TV, you seem to be fighting with the Americans, in the sense of the Russian state, but they kill Ukrainians. Of course, this situation is simply the wilder. Moreover, they are killed primarily by Russian -speaking ones, about which Vladimir Vladimirovich speaks so much and cares. And what is happening for the fifth year is a full -scale aggression. Depending on the situation, military or economic funds are used. As far as I understand, Vladimir Vladimirovich wanted to tell everyone that our Crimea. Anyone who attaches to the Crimea will fly missiles.

Mikhail Sokolov: And the Sea of Azov, too, now they say the "inner sea". True, they began to correctly adjust the position. Now I look, suddenly the FSB says that it is not a violation of the state border directly, it is difficult to sell this topic when there is a 2003 agreement, Ukraine can use the Kerch Strait as you like, hold its warships, like Russia. Now this is: "Despite the warnings about the closure of the region, they entered into a temporarily closed area, which violated the requirements of the UN Convention on the Law of the Law." That is, the position began to change cunningly.

Roman Tsimbalyuk: Oddly enough, in Russia it so happened that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs represented by Lavrov and Maria Zakharova turned to the Ministry of Defense. That is, the military begin to shoot, and these departments explain why. In fact, on Earth and at sea, this situation does not change in any way.

Mikhail Sokolov: In general, this is a strange plot, when people who seem to be captured now begin to judge for the illegal transition of the state border or crossing the state border.

Roman Tsimbalyuk: Moreover, we should not forget that the Ukrainian military, we have a Ukrainian army, but we don’t have a gang, it does not go on vacation with its equipment, we all fulfill orders of the Supreme Commander -in -Chief. It is clear that the status of these people is "prisoners of war." Not just so all world powers and international intermediaries say: calm down everything, shake back, return ships and crew. And here they say: no, this is all ours. The only thing I think, I hope that our military personnel will manage to somehow pull out of the Kremlin paws, but the result will be the next, that the level of anti-Russian sentiments will only grow.

It is hoped that there will be elections, Poroshenko will not be re-elected, but they will choose someone else, it will be possible to somehow agree. I can tell you that in a situation where they are trying to influence the rating of the current president, they shoot in ordinary Ukrainian citizens, it seems to me that in the minds of any person, any Ukrainian, these two situations are divided. He makes an assessment of the current president as a policy and separately aggressive actions of the Russian Federation.

Mikhail Sokolov: Alexander Gorny in touch from Simferopol, blogger "Echo of Moscow", journalist. Tell me, please, do you have a fate of the Ukrainian military who were in such a strange situation in Simferopol?

Alexander Gorny: If you look at the picture as a whole, then there is no sympathy for them. They are considered for people living in the Crimea, like people who committed or tried to commit a certain act of aggression against us. Let's consider this story more comprehensively. There is a position of the Ukrainian side, there is a position of the Russian side, of course, we also carefully observe this from Crimea.

History with sailors is a local story. Humanly, people are sorry for people, because they became victims of provocation. The political provocation of Petro Poroshenko himself, who, as the commander in chief, was certainly aware of this story. Now they are beginning to discuss the sea law loudly, to include links to an agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2003.

Mikhail Sokolov: The acting agreement in 2003, Russia did not denode it, Ukraine did not denode it. All these rules are spelled out there, who has the right to pass through the Kerch Strait. What are we talking about? Do you think that you do not need to execute contracts?

Alexander Gorny: In this situation, let's turn to the opinion of experts, who clearly mean that, of course, Ukrainian ships have the right to pass the Kerch Strait if there are no other conditions that are currently limited for some specific time. The Ukrainian side used these rules until recently. Now we see that this was not done. It was necessary to submit an application in 48 hours, confirm it in 24 hours, then do this directly before the passage. When we are now starting to refer to general contracts, Russian border guards acted in a specific situation, when there was a threat, including the Crimean bridge.

Mikhail Sokolov: What was the threat of the Crimean bridge?

Alexander Gorny: Three vessels go, even if they are completely small, will load them with explosives, approach the support, and what will be the result? When Ukrainian ships behaved unpredictably, inadequately, Russian border guards are required to react, given the saddest development of the script.

Mikhail Sokolov: As I understand it, you are not aware of the case with the sailors in a specific situation where they are, what.

Roman Tsimbalyuk: I wanted to tell Alexander, I don’t know who he is, a collaborator or just a henchman of the invaders, the fact is that he very correctly said that there is a Ukrainian position, there is a Russian one, and here we are like Russia in Crimea. You correctly noted this, because Crimea is not a Russian Federation, no matter how many collaborators and Moscow signs.

Naturally, I would like to recall that in Ukraine, unlike the Russian Federation, there are no martyrs, no one will ever decide their soldiers to put on the ship so that they swim to your bridge and blow it up. For what? So that you later bombing Kyiv the next day as part of the protection of the Russian -speaking population? I understand that now you need to prove your devotion to your owners in Moscow, but you can do it without humiliating yourself so much.

I would like to remind this comrade that since everything was so scary for the fetish of the Russians of the Crimean bridge, why did Russian invaders attacked Ukrainian ships in neutral waters? Did you have a top of the top of the slap? Moreover, it is very important to understand how Pavel noted, this is not ships, but boats, they do not have missile weapons, they physically cannot sink the courts that they encountered in the Russian Federation. This is all very similar: let's kill Ukrainians so that NATO soldiers do not come. You, a comrade who performed here, you are just a criminal, I congratulate you on this.

Mikhail Sokolov: We will not swear, we will culturally discuss. Alexander, you said that the message about the martial law that was announced in Ukraine, in your Crimea, is perceived, to put it mildly, ambiguously. What excites the inhabitants of Crimea if they now consider themselves Russians, why is martial law in Ukraine concerned?

Alexander Gorny: This issue really concerns us, because next to the Russian border is a state that introduces the martial law regime completely unreasonably at the moment. These are possible threats of our safety. We have repeatedly observed from Ukraine, as Blackauts introduced and similar provocations.

For us, Ukraine is a provocateur country that your guest Roman Tsimbalyuk represents, which offends guests on the air. This is a corporate style of provocations and rudeness, the corporate identity of Ukraine, which we now meet on the air, where we must discuss the problem, and not my personal estimates, like a novel or not like me. I am a citizen of the Russian Federation, Crimea is Russia. He needs to remember this once and for all.

We are afraid of Ukraine, which organizes all these provocations against Russia, against Crimea. This is an unambiguous position not only mine, but also many Crimeans. Yesterday I talked with people, discussed these issues, the Crimeans said unequivocally: we are ready to take up weapons if Ukraine tries to stick here. I can say the same thing: God forbid, at least one Ukrainian soldier or a volunteer-nationalist will stick, we are not Donbass, we will answer much harder.

Mikhail Sokolov: I hear that many people who live in Crimea retain Ukrainian passports, go to Ukraine, now they seem to have such an opportunity.

Alexander Gorny: I believe that thank God. Двойного гражданства не существует между Россией и Украиной, есть вторые паспорта. На данный момент мы для себя исходим, что Крым – это Россия, здесь живут граждане Российской Федерации, наличие вторых украинских паспортов – это угроза нашей безопасности. Если Украина закроет въезд для этих товарищей, мы будем искренне благодарны за этот шаг. Здесь другого мнения быть не может.

Михаил Соколов: Вы не расстраивайтесь, вы тогда действительно должны поддерживать действия Петра Порошенко, который вводит такие ограничения, возможно.

Роман Цимбалюк: Я слушаю Александра, мне очень нравятся его слова. Оказывается, Крым – это Россия, но он всегда в своих выступлениях разделяет Крым и Россия. Если вы боитесь Украины, я вас поздравляю, значит вы не верите верховному главнокомандующему Российской Федерации, который столько туда военнослужащих отправил со всех регионов Российской Федерации для того, чтобы хранить наше золотце оккупированный Крым. По поводу паспортов. Как минимум 90–95% жителей оккупированного Крыма сохранили украинские паспорта.

Михаил Соколов: И ездят, их меняют на новые, которые годятся для безвиза?

Роман Цимбалюк: Что, люди глупые? Они хотят быть рабами России, как Кремль создал на Донбассе?

Михаил Соколов: Просто мне интересно, есть такая статистика, сколько людей поменяло паспорта?

Роман Цимбалюк: Я не владею. Но факт остается фактом, что никто эти паспорта украинские на оккупированных территориях не изымал. По сути, по российскому законодательству, если люди не заявили о наличии другого паспорта, они являются преступниками. Очень странная ситуация: с одной стороны, Александр не верит в Путина, с другой стороны, 90% жителей оккупированного Крыма являются по российскому закону преступниками. Поживем – увидим, что будет. Можете не переживать, Александр, не бойтесь.

Михаил Соколов: Антон, какова информация сейчас по поводу украинских военнослужащих, которые были захвачены на кораблях около Керченского пролива?

Антон Наумлюк: Только что Киевский районный суд Симферополя закончил избирать меру пресечения для шести из 24 задержанных украинских моряков. По какому-то совершенно необъяснимому решению следствия сегодня меру пресечения избирали только для рядового состава, офицеров оставили на завтра. Вообще 24 человека были разделены на три группы, сегодня 12 человек, завтра остальные, и три человека раненых остаются в медчасти на территории воинской части в Керчи, суд по ним пройдет завтра.

Те, кого сегодня судили, им назначена мера пресечения в виде ареста на месяц и 29 дней, до 25 января 2019 года. Отбывать они его будут в Симферопольском СИЗО. Сейчас их всех в сопровождении адвоката отправили в управление ФСБ по Крыму в Севастополь, где им будет предъявлено официальное обвинение по части третьей статьи о незаконном пересечении границы Российской Федерации, с них будут сняты объяснения. По всей видимости, насколько я знаю, они будут отказываться от дачи показаний, ссылаясь на 51-ю статью Конституции.

The investigation will continue. Завтра очередной судебный день. Трем раненым морякам, которые находятся в Керчи, предстоит еще это судебное заседание перенести.

Михаил Соколов: Что сейчас с обменами происходит военнопленных, каких-то людей, которые были осуждены с той и с другой стороны, есть ли какой-то прогресс или все абсолютно замерзло и остановилось?

Антон Наумлюк: На самом деле все эти процессы обмена настолько непрозрачны с обеих сторон, что следить за ними очень тяжело. Можно только результат увидеть и как-то его констатировать. Последний обмен был произведен между украинской и российской стороной в виде обмена моряков российских, которые были задержаны, находились в Херсоне, и украинских моряков, которые были задержаны, долгое время находились на территории полуострова. Их обменяли друг на друга. Российские телеканалы, российские СМИ сделали из этого картинку.

Я не знаю, как в Москве это освещалось, но, например, крымские так называемые СМИ показывали очень пропагандистскую яркую картину возвращения российских героических моряков и рыбаков, которых наконец вернули, освободили, заслуга в этом была указана, несомненно, президента и Сергея Аксенова, главы Крыма от российских властей. Все на этом заканчивается, но это не обмен политическими заключенными, не освобождение политзаключенных, чего мы ждем уже фактически много лет, а это освобождение задержанных, арестованных по совершенно разным статьям.

Я не думаю, что сейчас после такого шума очень быстро состоится обмен и возвращение украинских моряков, которых задержали российские пограничники. Но вообще в перспективе, мне кажется, это возможно.

Михаил Соколов: Роман, какое ваше впечатление, почему никак эти обмены не удаются? Зачем российская власть удерживает такое количество украинцев здесь, осужденных якобы за терроризм, якобы за шпионаж, теперь якобы за нарушение государственной границы, если это не обменный фонд на кого-то?

Роман Цимбалюк: Вы знаете, сами события показывают, что решение по обмену принимает лично президент России. Самый большой обмен состоялся практически год назад, когда неожиданно Виктор Владимирович Медведчук подошел к нему в храме в присутствии патриарха Кирилла, сказал: "Да, пора поменять. Я повлияю на своих гаулейтеров на Донбассе". Он позвонил якобы, согласно релизу, Захарченко и Плотницкому. Потом Плотницкого отозвали в Москву, новому он решил уже не звонить. Обмен состоялся. Я говорю это для того, чтобы было понятно, кто принимает решения.

Вспомним, когда обмен состоялся, то Петр Порошенко, президент Украины, очень много этому внимания уделил с точки зрения пиара, ничего не вижу в этом плохого, потому что он этим занимается, политики все пиарятся. Сейчас, когда выборы приближаются, Владимир Владимирович этих людей просто не хочет менять, чтобы не добавлять политических очков президенту Украины.

Михаил Соколов: То есть до выборов, скорее всего, вряд ли что-то случится?

Роман Цимбалюк: Судя по всему, все идет именно к этому. Потому что Владимир Владимирович в Сингапуре сказал, что ему президент Украины уже не нравится, он хочет нового президента. Теперь мы ждем.

Михаил Соколов: А если будет какой-то пророссийский, как подумает Москва, кандидат, может быть, она ему отдаст часть пленных?

Роман Цимбалюк: Может быть вообще по-другому. У нас потом парламентские выборы, может, он лидеру какой-нибудь политической партии, например, тому же Медведчуку возьмет и подарит этих моряков, скажет – вот настоящий спаситель украинцев.

Есть очень важный момент, в России почему-то о нем не говорят, хотя любят повторять, что русские своих не бросают. Есть же военнопленные наши, есть военнопленные Российской Федерации, которые воевали на Донбассе, которые публично говорят, что они российские военные, осуждены у нас судом, кстати, пишут письма Владимиру Владимировичу: обменяйте нас, пожалуйста.

Михаил Соколов: А Путин не отвечает.

Роман Цимбалюк: Он делает вид, что их нет. That's the difference.

Михаил Соколов: Здесь разница другая, что были реальные, а не какие-то трактористы, настоящие российские пограничники, ФСБ, то есть военнослужащие стреляли. В некотором смысле это без всякого прикрытия шахтерами происходило.

Павел, все-таки каков риск большой войны? Война, например, как предвыборный ход по дестабилизации Украины.

Павел Фельгенгауэр: Я не думаю, что по-настоящему большая война сейчас возможна. Операция на фланге морском может быть, но ее будут рассматривать как ограниченную операцию, которую постараются сделать сравнительно быстро. Потом западные лидеры приедут, как после Дебальцева, когда задачи будут выполнены, и подготовят новый какой-нибудь Минск-3.

А вот большая война возможна, наверное, через год-два. Потому что Россия Украину отпускать не будет никуда – это рассматривается как совершенно невозможная вещь. Вообще, борьба идет не с Украиной, борьба идет с Америкой, так наш МИД и заявляет, что они стоят за спиной украинцев. Даже в керченском эпизоде – это все американцы и Евросоюз придумали. С настоящим противником идет война, торговля, стычки. А если Украина уйдет на Запад, значит, тут будут везде базы, в Харькове, в Сумах, в Полтаве, везде, все, тогда наша оборона прорвана, конец всему.

Конечно, надеются, что придут пророссийские силы какие-то здоровые, что с ними договорятся, что Украина станет вторым изданием Белоруссии нынешней, тогда все будет замечательно. Если нет, не получится таким путем экономического, политического, военного давления, тогда возможна и большая региональная война.

Войска к этому готовят, перевооружение идет полным ходом. У нас уже развернуто, как заявил начальник Генштаба, 126 постоянно готовых тактических батальонных групп – это очень много, это больше ста тысяч только армейцев, готовых к действиям. Когда был Иловайск, было то ли 8, то ли 9 тактических батальонных групп, а что такое 100 тактических батальонных групп, которые могут войти в Украину от белорусской границы до моря и из Крыма еще. Это возможно, чем дальше, тем вероятность будет возрастать. То ли политическое урегулирование в пользу России, чтобы Запад это признал, либо это военное решение.

Михаил Соколов: Я думаю, теперь надо узнать. Что с российским общественным мнением. Опрос был очень интересный: боятся ли в России войны с Украиной?

Poll on the streets of Moscow

Михаил Соколов: Роман, будет все-таки все нормально или катится все к войне?

Роман Цимбалюк: Оно может катиться куда угодно, кнопка и рычаг "война и мир" находится здесь недалеко, в Москве. В данной ситуации у Украины вообще все очень просто, мы же обязаны защищать свою страну, и мы будем воевать за свою страну. А вы, русские, вы можете наступать, можете нет. Так что у нас позиция абсолютно простая.

Михаил Соколов: А Запад вам поможет?

Роман Цимбалюк: Я думаю, что нет, никто за нас воевать не будет. Когда тут говорят о том, что мы выполняем указания американцев, я просто хочу сказать: почему нам эти несчастные "Джевелины" только сейчас дали? Сколько было дискуссий по поводу летального оружия. Опять же, воюете с Западом, а стреляете в украинцев – это паноптикум в головах.