Alexey Makarkin: Victory impossible in the first round

Alexey Makarkin Salome Zurabishvili

In the second round of the presidential elections, the President of Georgia was won by an independent candidate Salome Zurabishvili, which was supported by the Bidzina Ivanishvili party, the Georgian Dream. Zurabishvili scored almost 60% of the vote, which became clear after the processing of 99.7% of the ballots.

Zurabishvili once headed the Ministry of Georgia, but did not work with the team of Mikhail Saakashvili and left the post. She also lived in France for several years and was in the diplomatic service.

Her rival in the second round was the opposition candidate Grigol Vashadze, who was supported by the party of the former President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili; Vashadze in the second round scored a little more than 40% of the vote.

Grigol Vashadze / Twitter.com

As the RBC news agency clarifies, after calculating 100% of the ballots, the Georgian CEC said that 1.2 million people voted for Zurabishvili, or 59.52% of those who came to the polls. Another 40.48%, or 760.6 thousand votes, received Vashadze.

About why Zurabishvili showed in the second round the result is significantly higher than in the first, with Polit.ru, Alexei Makarkin, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technology.

Alexey Makarkin

“It is interesting that after the first round of the President of Georgia, the best chances were on the side of the opposition representative of Vashadze, oriented against Mikhail Saakashkili. The electoral arithmetic with the accepted calculation system worked very seriously for it. But in the end, Zurabishvili won. Why did this happen?

Firstly, the shock factor from almost the victory of Vashadze worked. When Zurabishvili only went to the presidents, the supporters of the authorities had very high expectations - it was assumed that she would almost win in the first round. When it turned out that there was no victory in the first round, and Vashadze was very seriously added, and even a lot of opposition candidate, Bakredze, then the authorities - primarily a billionaire Ivanishvili, who is behind the current Georgian authorities, received everything to win to win.

That is, if at first it seemed that the serious work, so that Zurabishvili won, was not needed (because she was a candidate with a good reputation, and besides, it was not connected closely with Ivanishville, and for many years she lived in France and was not quite high positions there, and then she became the Minister at Saakashvili, but went into the conflict very quickly and left his government), then after the first one), then after the first The tour became clear that only one name could not be played here.

Therefore, more serious technologies were attracted, and people began to dramatize this campaign, really began to relate to it more seriously and as a result received additional supporters.

I must say that in Georgia many do not want to return Saakashvili in any form. Perhaps this is not very visible from Russia, but it is. We, arguing about the timing of Saakashkiyli in power, often proceed from the fact that Georgia at that time achieved quite serious results, especially in comparison with the board of Shevardnadze. Quite a lot was done, including in the fight against corruption; the famous road police appeared; The economic situation was generally revived and there was no longer such hopelessness. But for Georgian society, it is very important that then control over society was tightened.

Mikhail Saakashvili / 112.ua

Listening to telephone conversations began, and then the use of this in further activities, and any socially active person could be under a blow if he diverged from Saakashvili in his views. Moreover, over time, this authoritarian tendency intensified, and the Georgian society really did not like it. They are used to the fact that in Soviet times they could instantly talk much more freely than in many other regions. And then suddenly the young president comes and begins to limit everyone hard enough!

Many have not liked this, and many still do not like it. Therefore, there was not only a vote for Zurabishchi, but also a vote against Saakashvili. This circumstance was not too used before the first round, because it was believed that Zurabishvili would and would win - on his image, on the resource of Ivanishvili. And then I had to approach the campaign much more seriously.

And the second circumstance affected the results of the elections (here the specificity of Georgia also played the role). Ivanishvili is known as a person who can do a lot - he has huge financial resource, especially for such a small country. And recently in Georgia, the question was often asked what he would do for ordinary people, why does the authorities think little about them, is engaged in their affairs? That is, the vote for Vashadze, a candidate who supported Saakashvili, was largely protest.

Voting Count / Georgia.ru

And between the tours, the authorities remembered (as often happens when she understands that she can get an extremely uncomfortable president) about the problem of debt. This is one of the main problems in Georgia: many Georgians are Zakredoy, gained debts, including in any microfinance institutions, where it is supposed to take money on some delightful conditions, and then it turns out about a huge percentage, and everything becomes far from so wonderful and profitable. And a person is in a debt bondage. And this became one of the important protest moments and stimulated dissatisfaction with the government.

Yes, if a person takes a loan, he himself makes a decision. But it is clear that they do not go to a microfinance organization from a good life. That is, a person, of course, is to blame and, of course, it was necessary to read all the rules and adhere to rational savings behavior. This is all clear, all arguments have long been known, and they have a serious meaning. But still to speak so good when you have some kind of financial resource and you can do without it. Well, if you can’t, if you were completely pressed? In this case, a person accuses not only himself, but also the authorities - for the fact that there are low salaries, unemployment, forcing people to go to the capture of loans on poor conditions.

So, between the tours, the government in filing Ivanishvili decided to free people from debts. And not some small groups of people, but a huge number-more than 600 thousand people. They have forgiven their debt. That is, the fund founded by Ivanishvili saves these small debtors, it will pay off their debt. It is about hopeless debts - about debts in the amount of a little more than $ 750, which have not repaid for more than one year. That is, it is in pure form of hopeless debts. And they write off.

Bidzina Ivanishvili / YouTube.com

Moreover, they are not just debited, but the benefactor is the same Ivanishvili, which was very much counted on after they voted against Saakashvili, and he left. But then Ivanishvili slowed down, and then he finally appeared as a “father-blessing”-that is, Zurabashvili did not just come as a retired French diplomat and a person known in the world, but also the “father-adversary” for her. Here is what is important for the position of people: they felt that at least in a critical situation, but the authorities remembered them again and now will write off the debt that hung over them completely hopelessly. This is the second important point.

Therefore, if Zurabishvili initially had a poor thing with the chances of victory, then these two important factors influenced and broke the situation, ”said Alexei Makarkin.

See also: the election of the President of Georgia for the first time won a woman in Georgia, the second round of presidential elections in Georgia will be held in the last direct elections of President Pavel Danilin “Georgian Dream” were connected with torture