What is behind the verdict Lev Ponomarev

Political scientist Georgy Satarov reflects on the role and prospects of the FSB in the latest Russian reality

On December 7, the Moscow Court of Appeal reduced the verdict to Lev Ponomarev from 25 days to 16. The decision was made by Judge Anna Seliverstova. Her sentence is simply open mockery, since the initial verdict of the Tver court was unlawful. But I'm not talking about that. Everything is clear to everyone. And an unclear future, as usual. I am afraid to make forecasts, but there are things that are predicted quite reliably, since even in social order there are slightly inexorable laws of nature, the reproduction of which is confirmed by history, including the history of our country. These laws are associated with some basic instincts of sapiens, which (instincts) are systematically manifested in their (sapiens) group behavior.

Lev Ponomarev for shares in support of the accused in the New Greatness case, October 28, 2018

A little earlier, Leo Ponomarev stated that the FSB was behind his arrest. The author of the statement interpreted this as “revenge of the FSB”, but I do not agree with this. In this matter, “nothing personal”, only public, or rather group. And this group is called the FSB. I already had to write about the hysteria of fear now experienced by power, which is systematically expressed in absurd, irrational behavior. I also wrote that the authorities now sees the main threat to youth. Hence the general and widespread attack on youth and youth culture. Therefore, Lev Ponomarev, who defended young children from the New Greatness group, whose whole business was built on the provocations of the FSB, became the victim of the primitive reflex “A friend of my enemy is my enemy”, painting the whole world in white and black. Any other person who protects the innocent young victims of the FSB could be. The impudent, frank impurities of the sentence, as well as the extremely immoral choice of the victim - a clear demonstration from the initiators of the idea that they are not going to be ashamed of in the means.

Whatever the next regime, its mandatory victim will become the FSB. This organization will be convicted by the direct action of the Constitution for the usurpation of power

FSB as a spinal cord of the regime

When we talk about the Russian power, we must understand that the FSB is a spinal cord, skeleton and regime muscles. I emphasize - the spinal cord, not neocortex and other achievements of evolution. I explain why. My basic forecast is that, whatever the next regime, its mandatory victim will become the FSB. This organization will be convicted of the direct action of the Constitution for the usurpation of power. It will be recognized by its own law by a terrorist organization banned in Russia, and its personnel are subjected to lustration. I argue that all the predicted by me will be committed with the unique unanimity of the entire population of Russia and all social groups (with the exception of victims of lustration).

Moreover, my already very likely forecast increases its likelihood with every new day of the existence of the current regime. The presence of something outside the spinal cord, which regulates grabbing and protective reflexes, would easily prompted them what is obvious to me and would move the most visionary Chekists themselves to lead the regime update. But this will not happen for irreversible physiological reasons.

Inevitably, a real monster, the enemy of the Fatherland and people, organized and omnipotent will be needed. This enemy and a full -fledged scapegoat will be the FSB. And the flow of new revelations will be opened

Forecast

Now I move to the substantiation of my forecast. Putin’s inevitable departure from power will occur in extremely unfavorable economic, financial, social and political conditions. Following the departure, an avalanche of accusatory and revealing publications will fall, which will give a magnificent panorama of his criminal activity and to blame him for all problems. But quite quickly it will be found that this information flow is not cleansing relief, but bitter shame - shame from the fact that the country and society, which overthrew the seventy -year power of the CPSU, fell under the heel of one person and quite mediocre.

Therefore, a real monster, the enemy of the Fatherland and people, organized and omnipotent will inevitably need. This enemy and a full -fledged scapegoat will be the FSB. And the flow of new revelations will be opened. And his strength will not only be that this new refreshing stream will relieve compatriots mental pain. The main thing in another - the new elites will not want to repeat the threat of the Putin presidency - the FSB monopoly. And in order to avoid this, it will be necessary to destroy the FSB and to create a system of competing bodies controlled by public authorities on the site of the department-monster. Everything is described by me and will provide a unanimous slaughter of the FSB.

What will frighten and set up against the FSB elite? Yes, exactly what is already happening: the destruction of competing state institutions and the submission of potentially dangerous active social groups. This process is characterized by a distinctly increasing speed of switching from the institute to the institute and from one social group to another. Since ruins have already remained from the institutes, only social groups will now be targets.

And here another characteristic of the process is important - a decrease in the bar in assessing the danger of a particular social group for the regime and its spinal cord. This means that everyone can get to the FSB millstone. And with each new day of the regime, the chances of each and everyone are increasing. And if this continues, then they (the remaining social group called the FSB) will begin to devour themselves.

Risks

The process I described will inevitably weaken the central power. And there will be temptations to escape from the brutal heel of the FSB, running away from Russia. Therefore, I will end the forecast that I will not do. I don’t know if the FSB will judge in Russia within its current borders or it will be an epidemic of processes in the fragments into which the country will break up. But it is quite obvious to me that with every new day of the current regime, the likelihood of the collapse of the country is growing. And I have been about this for more than fifteen years.

In early 1991, no one on the globe suspected that at the end of the year the USSR would fall apart. Now calculate the decay speed. By the way, even then, the KGB of the USSR attached a hand to the collapse of the USSR, organizing a wretched and mediocre conspiracy only in order to save his power. And do you think the current ones are better and wiser?

Other forecasts of experts on the development of the situation in Russia here and here .

* Georgy Satarov-President of the Inter Foundation, Professor of the RANEPA, in 1994-97, assistant to the President of Russia Boris Yeltsin