Preparations for 2024 began in 2018

The Kremlin has stepped up work on options for extending the power of Vladimir Putin after the fourth term. Why the Belarusian scenario has become the main one, analyzes Konstantin Eggert

Deng Xiaoping is not a role for Putin

Only two or three months had passed after the team of pseudo-candidate circus performers headed by Ksenia Sobchak completed the development of the election budgets, when the Kremlin began to actively work on a scenario for extending the political career of Vladimir Vladimirovich after the end of the next presidential six-year period. This is the main event of 2018 in Russia.

The team of Anton Vaino and Sergei Kiriyenko understands very well that time, albeit slowly, is working against Putin. raising the retirement age were another outcome of the past year After all, protests against . Yes, they've faded. Yes, the calls of the opposition to protest did not find any further response. Yes, people have a short memory, and they have long learned that "there is no reception against scrap." But, as the old joke says, "the sediment remained." Moreover, it is among a noticeable part of Putin's majority - middle-aged people, mainly in the provinces. They trusted the president and hoped for their legitimate – no, not a pension, because it is impossible to live on this money – but in fact a salary supplement “for age”. After all, they try to work in Russia as long as their legs can walk. And the president took and took away this allowance, although he promised that this would not happen under him.

Yes, in theory, one could order the 450 members of the administration, who work in a department called the State Duma, to pass a law to remove restrictions on the number of presidential terms. But Russia is still not North Korea, and not Turkmenistan. Such a shameless declaration of himself as ruler for life would catastrophically undermine Putin's authority. And he is quite sensitive to public opinion.

It is always funny for me to listen to Western colleagues explain: Putin will go into the shadows and become a “Russian Deng Xiaoping or Lee Kuan Yew”, he will steer political processes from behind the scenes. Dear Gentlemen! Russia is not China or Singapore! Here, a person's influence is determined by a plate on the door polished to a shine with a name, surname and position.

It is ridiculous to listen to Western colleagues explain: Putin will go into the shadows and become a “Russian Deng Xiaoping or Lee Kuan Yew”, will steer political processes from behind the scenes. Russia is not China or Singapore! Here, a person’s influence is determined by a plate on the door with a name, surname and position polished to a shine.

By the way, this is precisely why Putin will not create any state councils that will have some influence on personnel decisions, as some observers predicted. In Russia, according to the Constitution, there is a president, who is also the supreme commander in chief. It is to him that people in uniform are subordinate. And whoever he is, he (or she) can always ask the secretary not to connect this with him, like him, well, the chairman of the state council: “If we need him, we will call him ourselves.” That's the whole story about the Russian Deng Xiaoping project.

In addition - and this, too, cannot but be realized behind the red Kremlin wall - in 2024 Putin will turn 72 years old, and with all his excellent physical shape, this, whatever one may say, is already old age. More importantly, in 2024 it will be 25 years since the appointment of the current president as prime minister and the beginning of his total dominance in the media. Even the TV audience loyal to the authorities is starting to get tired of the same protagonist of the news, saying, in principle, the same thing as a quarter of a century, and twenty, and ten years ago. This is a normal property of the human psyche. And then there's the resentment of raising the retirement age. This combination of psychological and social risks is not the most pleasant for the Kremlin.

The second "Crimea is ours"

Either large-scale economic growth (an absolutely improbable scenario) or a new Crimea can bring the situation out of the impasse. And it seems that the administration began to work on the second option in the summer of 2018. The Kremlin began to actively put pressure on the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

Either large-scale economic growth (an absolutely improbable scenario) or a new Crimea can bring the situation out of the impasse. And it seems that the administration began to work on the second option in the summer of 2018.

Lukashenka was constantly called in for negotiations with Putin, moreover, twice in December 2018. The rise in price of Russian oil exports to Belarus due to tax changes in Russia was formally discussed.

In reality, the Kremlin's goal is to force Minsk to agree to a closer alliance with Moscow in exchange for maintaining preferences. In fact, we are talking about the absorption of Belarus by Russia and the creation of a new state. The most reliable method is to force Lukashenka to give up his own currency and transfer the emission function to Moscow. Of course, after a referendum with a predetermined result, followed by the proclamation of the creation of the Russian-Belarusian Confederation with a new president at the head. It is also possible to completely absorb the western neighbor with inclusion in the federation as an autonomous republic. In the propaganda sense, this would be an even stronger move, in fact, the same “new Crimea”, but without the participation of “polite people”.

Lukashenka sends signals to the public: they say, the elite is with me, we will not allow any attempts on sovereignty. However, the Belarusian leader found himself in a not the best situation. There are no independent politicians around him who could support him. There is no opposition capable of taking power after Lukashenka - more than twenty years of "stability" have actually buried the opportunity to conduct an independent policy in the country. Young people who do not want to remain on an island of boring stability either go into private life or emigrate. If Putin decides to remove Alexander Grigoryevich, then, in essence, there will be no one to defend the sovereignty of Belarus and himself. And this is a very unpleasant story for Lukashenka. Because there is simply no one to really resist the potential seizure of the country by Russia.

Lukashenka's appeal to the West for help is possible. But after many years of sanctions and a boycott against the Minsk regime, the West does not trust the official Minsk and at the same time fears Putin. They will not spoil relations with Moscow because of the Belarusian regime

There is no particular hope for the army and special services - they are too closely connected with their Moscow colleagues. Lukashenka's appeal to the West for help is possible. But after many years of sanctions and a boycott against the Minsk regime, the West does not trust the official Minsk and at the same time fears Putin. They will not spoil relations with Moscow because of the Belarusian regime. The road to the creation of a new state is almost open.

The West, of course, will become indignant and shout about the final act of the Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe with its principle of inviolability of borders. This would give Putin the opportunity to do what he loves – trolling Americans and Europeans. “Firstly, there is a free expression of the will of the citizens of Belarus. Secondly, you yourself called Lukashenka "the last dictator of Europe." Well, I knocked him out of the presidency. What are you not happy about? Thirdly, in Belarus, which will now begin to live according to our laws, there will no longer be the death penalty. Because it is not in Russia. Isn't this what the Council of Europe has been demanding for many years? Or is your Western humanism false? By the way, now you don’t have to accept Lukashenko to the Council - because Russia is already in it!”

This scenario, in fact, is the only one that allows Putin to stay in power at the lowest possible cost. And that is why it began to break through last year. After all, iron must be forged hot, and if Lukashenka can be broken, then you need to seize the moment right away. How to break off - and immediately announce a referendum, a monetary union, the unification of armies and the modernization of hundreds of kilometers of border with another member of the North Atlantic Alliance - Poland. From now on, he will threaten NATO and laugh in the face of "our Western partners" - right through the Suwalki corridor.

So buckle up - 2019 could be a year of surprises. And if not, then Putin still has time. Although for him, of course, it would be better to finish this epoch-making business quickly.

+++

Read about the economic results of the year and forecasts for the next one here Read about whether there is a chance for real Russian opposition next year here Photo: president.gov.by