Democratic revenge has already led to a partial cessation of the government

The Democratic Party, which received the majority in the House of Representatives, immediately made it clear to President Trump that she was determined. By the evening of the first day of work, the lower house adopted the budget for 2019 - without $ 5.6 billion, which the president requires for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico.

The third week of Shatdown is in America. Without approved by the President of the budget, more than 800 thousand civil servants are in forced leave or work without paying salaries. The 17-day partial stop of the government’s work due to underfunding, which began even before Catholic Christmas (December 22), became the second in the history of the United States in duration. And she is not visible to the end. Negotiations of the two parties, held last weekend, did not lead to a compromise. The “Wall with Mexico” is the first large -scale political battle of the White House and the divided Congress, where the Democratic Party controls the lower ward (235 seats of 434, one place is currently vacant), and the Republicans (53 places out of 100).

In such conditions, it will be very difficult to make general decisions,

In addition, in recent years in both parties there has been a process of radicalization: conservatives become more conservative, and liberals become more liberal.

A few words about the composition of the 116th Congress, which can play a noticeable role in the development of America. 25 women became senators - this is a record in the history of the country (in six states, including California, both senators are women), 102 women were elected to the House of Representatives.

91 Senator and 317 members of the House of Representatives reckon themselves with the White race (non -inflammatory), 4 in the Senate and 44 in the lower house called “Latin American”, 3 senators and 56 congressmen - African American, 3 and 15 - respectively - immigrants from Asia, and in the ward of four representatives called themselves Indians. Two people in the Senate and eight in the House of Representatives ranked themselves to the LGBT community.

Over 88% of legislators are Christians, half of them are Protestants, more than 30% are Catholics. 6.4% called Judaism their religion - this is the highest indicator in the history of the congress. There are Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus.

So they swore: someone on the Bible, someone on the Qur'an.

The wall of the discord

Shatdown - a partial stop of the government first hit the parks and museums. The next object is airports. Security officers examining passengers were without a salary, and many stopped going to work, referring to illnesses. This threatens with serious delays in the operation of the airports. The budget adopted by the House of Representatives on January 3, the Republicans in the Senate do not even want to consider as “unrealistic”, because the president has the right to veto, and the White House said that the budget would not be signed in this form.

Trump does not want to abandon the demand to allocate over $ 5.5 billion for the construction of the wall on the Mexican border. In its version of the budget, the House of Representatives allocated only $ 1.3 billion plus another 300 million for other measures to strengthen the border - such as the installation of video cameras. The crisis is developing. I note that the shutdown began with the previous composition of the congress, where both wards were with the republican majority, but even then the Senate did not have the necessary votes to accept the budget arranging the president.

Donald Trump announced that he would make an appeal to the nation on Tuesday evening. And then the president intends to go with the inspection to the southern border. The president wants to enlist the support outside his usual electorate. One of the decisions in order to receive money bypassing the consent of the congress is to declare a state of emergency on the border with Mexico. Trump said he was ready to go for it if the democrats from the lower house do not make concessions.

There are several scenarios of the development of events:

1. "Not a wall, but an iron fence." Tall lattice fences instead of a brick wall are being built on a number of border sections. As Reuters notes, in the case of financing by the House of Construction of the Barrier, Trump's Construction Representatives, Trump can call this his victory, and at the same time the Democrats may say that they did not allow the hated wall. According to the speaker of Nancy Pelosi, the cost of the wall is greater than the benefit that the structure can bring. When asked how much Pelosy spent on the wall, she stated that no more than one dollar. In turn, Trump says that drones and other types of sensors at the border offered by democrats are good, but insufficient measures. Need a wall.

2. "Cash compromise." The White House and the House of Representatives can find the amount that suits both sides: between 5 billion Trump and 1.6 billion democrats.

3. Trump could offer the democrats to cancel the deportation of the so -called “dreamers” - children of illegal immigrants who came to America at an early age. In return for money for the construction of the wall. According to the American media, in the past, such a compromise was discussed and "was almost achieved."

In the case of a state of emergency, the president may redirect the existing funds from the country's budget for the construction of the wall, including from the defense budget. But according to the Constitution, it is the Congress that has the right to make decisions on the use of taxpayers. In the case of a state of emergency on the Mexican border, the Democrats in Congress are ready to challenge the Presidential decision in the courts. Then wait for a long process that can reach the Supreme Court.

On January 3, the Democrats also adopted a document on financing the Ministry of Internal Security until February 8. New leaders in the House of Representatives want to accept separate legislative acts on financing and other ministries - agriculture, justice, and trade. And so, in turn, they will send bills to the upper ward, and the Republican senators will have to decide: to block these acts in the name of Trump's Wall or support them. The consequences of the continuation of the shutdown can even more hit the taxpayers - voters.

The blocking of the bill on the allocation of funds to the Ministry of Finance, for example, may threaten the delay in the payment of their tax refunds to the Americans.

The “wall of discord” battles between the White House and the Congress (more precisely, its lower house) are not limited.

Impachment - near and distant

On the first day of the new congress, a member of the House of Representatives, a democrat from California Brad Sherman announced that he would seek impeachment - Trump’s removal from office. He was already trying to initiate this issue in the summer of last year, but the then republican majority in the lower house blocked the projects of resolutions about impeachment. In addition to Sherman, the impeachment was then demanded by the congressmen-democrats El Green from Texas and Steve Cohen from Tennessee.

And last year, and now the 78-year-old speaker Nancy Pelosi considers the “premature” initiative and offers to wait for the results of the commission of the special prosecutor’s commission Robert Muller, the investigating connection of the Trump team with Russia.

The member of the Democratic Party Rashid Thab, who was elected to the House of Representatives from the state of Michigan, speaking of the president,

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She was supported by film actor Samuel Jackson, but the leadership of the Democrats in Congress condemned the “style of rhetoric” by a young colleague. Nevertheless, as a more distant prospect of Trump's impeachment remains for the democrats on the agenda, no matter how difficult and almost incredible to achieve. This requires two -thirds of the votes of senators: at least 66 votes, and the democrats in the upper house have only 47 (taking into account two independent ones).

Nevertheless, the Pelosi speaker believes that impeachment is possible, but the support of the Republicans is necessary. It should be like a “musical bapto” - a powerful common chord taken by both batches, the speaker noted. And this is possible in the case of some very serious results of the Muller commission. Democrats in Congress are ready to provide all support for this investigation, to protect it from the pressure of the White House. The report is approaching, the White House wants to prevent its distribution through the new leadership of the Ministry of Justice.

As usual, on Twitter Trump to the threats of impeachment reacted very emotionally:

“How can I impeen the president, who probably won the most significant elections in history,

who did nothing bad (did not conspire with Russia - this is the Democrats conspired with Russia), who worked for two years of his term more successfully than any other president and is the most popular Republican in the history of this party - 93%? "

Note that this is a rating among the Republicans, in the whole country the Trump rating is not higher than 40%.

"How to overcome corruption and restore the unity of power"

“Dry the Washington Swamp” - with such a promise, both the Democrats and the Republicans (in particular, Trump) acted with this promise. The democratic majority in the House of Representatives called the very first bill (HR 1) of the 116th convocation of the Congress “For the Good Act). The document in 600 pages facilitates the voting procedure, protecting the rights of minorities, simultaneously tightens the restrictions for lobbyists and the rules of conduct of officials, prohibits the redevelopment of the boundaries of polling stations (GerryMandering), which both parties used in their interests (now independent commissions will do this). It is forbidden to accept sponsorship contributions from corporations controlled by foreigners. And non -profit organizations and trade unions will be required to submit data on sponsors of political campaigns if the amount of donations reaches 10 thousand dollars and higher. Large companies that place advertising in digital format will be required to report their customers.

Donald Trump never released his tax returns, violating the many years of the presidents of America.

The bill of democrats requires the presidents, vice presidents and candidates for these posts to provide data from their tax returns over the past 10 years. In order to stop ethics violations, the bill will provide funds to strengthen control by the Ministry of Justice, especially in compliance with the Law on Registration of Foreign Agents (Fara). The plans of the House of Representatives simultaneously adopt legislation aimed at restoring the law on the rights of voting of 1965, which the Supreme Court partially canceled in 2013. We are talking about restricting the financing of elections by the largest corporations, which the judges of the Armed Forces considered it unlawful: "Corporations are also people (voters)."

In the bill, one can see the reflection of the fears of the democrats in connection with the Russian and other foreign interference in the elections and their desire, on the one hand, to facilitate voting for the traditional electoral base (“most of the representatives of minorities” - the so -called the electorate of Barack Obama), on the other hand, limit the influence of large corporations and foreign agents.

The bill “for the benefit of the people” will still be discussed in various committees and will be submitted for general vote of the chamber at best in February. But to be honest, he has practically no chance of becoming a law, passing a statement in the Senate and there is no chance at all to sign it to Trump. The goal of a large -scale bill is different - to show American voters the platform of the Democrats, with which this party will go to the next presidential election, which will offer the voter. Of course, the candidate from the Democratic will make adjustments, but the base will be approximately like that. Separately, in the committees of the Lower Chamber will be discussed by financing for the construction of infrastructure (roads, bridges), reducing prices for medicines and, of course, tightening the rules for owning firearms.

For the Russian authorities, good news from Congress is still unlikely.

Recent news: lawmakers from the Democratic Party want to cancel sanctions from the US Ministry of Justice from Oleg Deripaska (the corresponding resolution has been introduced), and the head of NASA under pressure from the Senators postpones the visit of the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin.