2019: hopes, prospects, fears

Columnist Ivan Davydov on what awaits us in the coming year

The holidays are over, Russia, yawning, goes to work. Confused people in the metro, Sobyanin's tiles rearing up from the frost on the Moscow streets. The layman continues to doze on the go, and it seems to him that politics is also dozing for the time being.

But this is not entirely true: the president did not even think of getting out of the TV, the deputies have already gone on a spring shift and are ready to stun us and upset us with new laws, and by the weekend the main propagandists will return from vacations to tell how hard it is to live in Kiev today and how unsweetened in Washington. Politics is already here, and to figure out what to expect from the coming year, the time is right.

Looking for an enemy

You should not expect that the confrontation with Europe, the States and the closest neighbors will suddenly disappear somewhere. The contours of the political system were not determined yesterday, and it can exist only in a situation of constant conflict. The only justification for the existence of Putin's power is in the threats from outside, from which the government protects the ordinary Russian. For the sake of this, you can fork out. Consequently, conflicts will be provoked, invented, and the world will be described as a bunch of enemies who sleep and see how to burn down our peaceful huts.

In a sense, our political system is hostage to itself: of course, people in power would like to continue to feel like enlightened Europeans with European real estate and decent bank accounts. Moreover, talk about digitalization, a breakthrough, entering the top five largest economies in the world (Vyacheslav Volodin spoke about this as a task at the opening of the next session of the Duma on Wednesday ) is not just empty words. Of course, they would like to rule a rich and happy country. The rich, after all, are more interesting to rob than the poor.

But it is impossible to achieve these goals by quarreling with developed countries. And it is impossible not to quarrel - this is a matter of self-preservation. The question of the transfer of power. Self-preservation and self-reproduction for the authorities is much more important than our well-being, which means that we will continue to run wild, trying to scare the world with the latest missiles . It won't go anywhere.

It is necessary to feed the security forces and support the vociferous horde of propagandists - after all, this is the real support of the regime. The security forces need an enemy, just like the propagandists. The enemy will continue to look inside and outside.

Withdrawal without protest

As early as last summer, a new trend could be recorded - there was less noise around prohibition initiatives, but more ideas appeared related to the withdrawal of funds from the population. But for opposition-minded citizens, this is by no means a reason to relax - the task of finding internal enemies is not canceled. And if Art. 282 of the Criminal Code (thought crime - as we called it in The New Times, when we analyzed in detail what it threatens ) was partially decriminalized, then it will be replaced by the "Klishas law" (by the way, already approved by the chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko ), which will allow punishing " an insult to the authorities on the Internet. Another attempt to finish off freedom of speech and those at the same time who enjoy this freedom will certainly be made in the coming year.

And by the way, there is no reason to hope that any new and noticeable opposition forces will appear at the federal level. Oppositional Russian politics will remain a desert, through which Alexei Navalny roams, exposing various embezzlers of public funds. And this poverty of ours, of course, is not to praise him, but to us, to everyone else, as a reproach.

The task of finding internal enemies is not canceled, and if Art. 282 of the Criminal Code was partially decriminalized, then it will be replaced by the “Klishas law”. Another attempt to finish off freedom of speech and those at the same time who enjoy this freedom will certainly be made

But - based on the experience of the past year - it can be predicted that the protest will go to the regions. Both specific local problems ( remember garbage riots), and general dissatisfaction with the authorities will continue to provoke tension and take shape in protest voting in the elections. And here the “smart voting” of the same Alexei Navalny may well work - that is, the idea of ​​\u200b\u200bsupporting “second numbers” in the elections, passing candidates not from United Russia (read more about the project here ) . Capital technologies from the most experienced of the opposition politicians, combined with an understandable hatred of local bosses, will still make the Kremlin nervous. We are in for an interesting September with its single voting day. Well, or October, because this day can be rescheduled.

Chief: Overdose

The simplest prediction is that in 2019 we will have even more Putin. A conglomerate of high-ranking, well-to-do and thieving people, which we call power for simplicity, gnaw, of course, squabbles and contradictions. But there is a point at which the opinions of all these people converge - their main asset is Putin. His notorious rating, his popularity. Nearby - this is how the system was built - and today there is no one who could approach him in popularity. All other representatives of power are only a shadow of the leader, they do not exist without a leader, they exist only as an expensive addition to the great and omnipotent Putin.

Over the past year, this asset has fallen significantly in price. The pension reform was enough for the Russians to suddenly notice that the president's geopolitical successes bring only problems for them personally. And this means that the country will be offered a new Putin.

The country needs to be convinced that not only people in expensive suits, whom we call power for simplicity, but all of us, millions of people in Russia, all its natural resources, forests, oil, gas, air are nothing without Putin. We are his shadow, we are good for nothing without him, only his genius allows us to survive among the enemies that Russia is surrounded by. Only he will be able to implement the national projects that he described in the famous May decree. Only he will save, provide a technological breakthrough, an increase in living standards and other wonderful things.

Actually, the miracle of transformation has already begun - since December 2018, the president has tirelessly handed out gifts, made children and adults happy, and even managed to personally supervise the elimination of the consequences of the explosion in Magnitogorsk. This wise and caring grandfather Putin, who is turned to his own country, and not to the Syrian deserts, will be pumped into us over the next year.

Fears: empty and justified

In Putin's entourage - this was evident already last year - they preoccupied themselves with the idea of ​​a transit of power. Putin should not leave - this is their main idea, because if Putin leaves, all his associates will turn into a meaningless collection of pumpkins of different sizes. The battle to save Putin has already begun, and in the coming year the country's masters will continue to probe options for solving this difficult task.

There is nothing to fear. You just need to understand that these people are not going to go anywhere. They will cling to power to the last, and in this sense, it does not matter which option of “saving Putin” they choose. And about the good: from January 1, 2019, Russians can collect deadwood for free

And for some reason it is customary to be afraid of this. Fear that they will rewrite the Constitution. To be afraid of what will happen in one form or another, the accession of Belarus . Despite the fact that the negotiations between the two autocrats at the end of the year turned out to be difficult, and Lukashenko in his New Year's address did not say a word about an alliance with Russia, but said that it was necessary to protect the independence of the motherland.

So, there is nothing to fear. You just need to understand that these people are not going to go anywhere. They have nowhere to go. They will cling to power to the last, and in this sense, it does not matter which option of “saving Putin” they choose. It is foolish to be afraid of the inevitable. You just need to prepare for the inevitable.

The danger is not in keeping Putin in power, but in maintaining Putin's course. We have already outlined the Samoyed essence of the Russian political machine. The state is militarizing, looking for and finding enemies, which means that we are always on the verge of a new war. Small or big, close or far. Our lives are worth less to them than our money, and they are always ready to sacrifice our lives. From this point of view, each next year is more dangerous than the previous one.

And in order not to end on a pessimistic note, we recall: from January 1, 2019, Russians can collect deadwood for free. And in the Altai Territory, for example, the local administration has already opened a hotline on deadwood collection.

Hold on, fellow citizens.