January 13, 2019, 22:41 / Economics Exclusively by subscription

The Central Bank will return to the foreign exchange market on Tuesday

According to experts, there is nothing to fear from the ruble Anna Kholyavko Anna Tretyak The amount of purchases is significantly less than the last time the Central Bank entered the market / Evgeniy Razumny / Vedomosti

On Tuesday, the Central Bank is going to resume purchasing foreign currency according to the budget rule - by 15.6 billion rubles. per day until February 6. A total of 265.8 billion rubles will be spent, the Ministry of Finance announced on Friday. This is the minimum amount since April 2018, when 240.7 billion rubles were allocated for the purchase of foreign currency.

The Central Bank suspended foreign currency purchases in August due to the weakening of the ruble and began selling foreign currency to the Ministry of Finance from reserves in order to comply with the budget rule. The absence of a regulator in the foreign exchange market benefited the ruble: additional currency entered the market, which made it possible to level out the outflow of capital and stabilize the exchange rate.

Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said on November 28 that the Central Bank could return to the foreign exchange market on January 15. On December 14, when the Central Bank announced that the decision had been made, the dollar rose in price by 52 kopecks. On Friday, the Ministry of Finance’s message did not affect the ruble exchange rate: from 12.00, when it was published, to 14.10 Moscow time, the dollar rose in price by 12 kopecks. up to 66.93 rubles, euro – by 15 kopecks. up to 77.17 rub. As of 21.00 Moscow time, the dollar was worth 66.89 rubles, and the euro – 76.8 rubles.

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The amount of purchases is significantly less than the last time the Central Bank entered the market, so one should not expect a strong reaction from investors, says Sergei Romanchuk, director of foreign exchange and money market operations at Metallinvestbank. The interventions are not so large as to compensate for the current account surplus, which will reach at least $7 billion, Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING for Russia and the CIS, writes in the review. In addition, the Central Bank announced the return a long time ago, so it has been fully taken into account by the market, says Tatyana Evdokimova, chief economist at Nordea Bank.

Investors were reassured by the smooth return to purchases, says Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BKS Premiere. The decision on deferred currency purchases, the amount of which is estimated at $30 billion, will be made by the Central Bank after the resumption of regular purchases and they will last for several years, Nabiullina said earlier. The resumption of currency purchases itself will not significantly affect the financial market, she is sure. A representative of the Central Bank declined to comment further on Friday.

Previously on the topic: Dollars do not reach Russian companies

The relationship between the ruble exchange rate and oil prices is non-linear, Evdokimova believes: since October, oil has fallen in price by more than 30% - and the ruble’s reaction has been restrained. In the last two weeks of December, the price of a barrel of oil dropped below the psychologically important level of $60. Therefore, the ruble fell, but has already won back its losses, the market has stabilized, she says. The US Federal Reserve is turning towards a dovish policy, the general mood of the markets is positive, the situation in the trade war with China is expected to improve, adds Denis Korshilov, head of the monetary and financial department at Citi: “Sanctions remain an important risk, but in the near future there will be movement towards this the side is not visible." “If the Central Bank had refused to enter the market, the ruble would have strengthened by another five percent,” he believes.

In addition, oil prices have now dropped significantly compared to October peaks, which means that the Central Bank will need to buy less currency for the Ministry of Finance than with more expensive oil, notes Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-invest. And if some exporters previously held back part of their foreign currency earnings, waiting for the Central Bank to return to the market, now they can, by selling foreign currency, compensate for its purchases and thereby support the ruble, Romanchuk believes. But if the Central Bank’s purchases are influenced by some negative news about sanctions, the ruble may fall in price, he admits.

If there is any risk, the Central Bank will again suspend the purchase of foreign currency, says Oleg Achkasov, head of the directorate for operations with shares of BCS Global Markets. However, the Central Bank cannot leave the market, for example, for a year, since it spends its reserves by selling foreign currency from them to the Ministry of Finance according to the budget rule, he concludes.