Russian patriots intend to defend the Kuril Islands from Japanese claims to the last (pictured is a Soviet IS-3 tank on Shikotan Island) / Andrey Shapran/RIA Novosti

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono arrived in Russia on Saturday for a three-day visit. According to a commentary released by the Russian Foreign Ministry’s press department on Friday, he will hold the first round of talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Monday on the issue of concluding a peace treaty in accordance with the agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Buenos Aires last year. The Russian Foreign Ministry notes that Russian-Japanese ties have recently intensified in many areas, and trade turnover has grown by 18.2% to $17.58 billion over 10 months. At the same time, according to the Foreign Ministry, “the key condition for finding options for resolving the peace treaty issue should be Tokyo’s full recognition of the results of World War II, including our country’s sovereignty over the South Kuril Islands.”

Japan invariably names the transfer of four Kuril Islands as a condition for concluding a peace treaty. The beginning of the year was marked by a series of high-profile statements by Japanese officials – for example, about the need to “achieve understanding” among the residents of the Southern Kuril Islands on the issue of “the transfer of territorial ownership of the islands to Japan” and about “refusing to demand that Russia pay compensation” for the “post-war occupation of the islands.” On January 9, the Russian Foreign Ministry protested to the Japanese ambassador that these statements “grossly distort” the essence of the agreements between Putin and Abe.

The Japanese side is whipping up expectations about the imminent conclusion of a peace treaty, says political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov: "It seems to me that this is primarily a tactic of influencing their own public opinion, since in any country, including Japan, the idea of territorial concessions is unpopular. Therefore, public opinion must be somehow prepared by demonstrating that there is a serious chance of resolving the issue and that it cannot be missed." It is not yet clear how effective this tactic will be for the Japanese public, but it has the opposite effect on the Russian side, the expert notes: "Of course, we have the same problem: even if we assume that Putin really wants to conclude some kind of agreement, he absolutely does not need these premature exaggerated expectations that are being whipped up by the opposite side." Most likely, both Kono's negotiations and Abe's visit, which is expected later, are unlikely to be productive, says Lukyanov: "In such a situation, on the contrary, Russia will most likely ask Japan not to rush and to behave carefully, not to pass off wishful thinking as reality." What will happen next is not entirely clear, the expert notes: “Indeed, Putin has been making some hints in recent months that could be interpreted in different ways, including positively for the Japanese. It is clear that everything is focused on the interpretation of the 1956 declaration (in which the USSR did not rule out the transfer of two of the four islands after the conclusion of a peace treaty with Japan. – Vedomosti), and then a lot of creativity begins: on the one hand, attempts to politically understand to what extent this is permissible and acceptable for the societies of both countries, and on the other – the degree of flexibility in the interpretation of what was agreed upon more than 60 years ago. The Russian side has repeatedly said that that declaration was signed under completely different conditions, so it will not be possible to simply return to what was then.”

Rumors of a possible peace treaty have led to active condemnation of the plans to transfer the Southern Kurils on Russian social networks, and on January 20, a number of organizations, in particular Sergei Udaltsov's Left Front, filed applications to hold rallies in Moscow against the transfer of the Kurils.

In the Kremlin, foreign policy is Putin's prerogative, notes political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko: "I think the last time we had any significant disagreements on foreign policy issues was the Libya issue, when Dmitry Medvedev was still president. And now this issue is Putin's complete monopoly. But this does not cancel out the fact that someone may try to score political points on this topic, especially since a reset of the domestic political space is inevitable anyway." None of the serious players will publicly declare themselves on this topic, the expert stipulates: "But to tweak some figures that can then be played with - I think that is quite possible."

Disputed Islands: Between Russia and Japan 1 / 18

Japan lays claim to the four southern Kuril Islands - Iturup, Kunashir (pictured), Shikotan and Habomai, citing the 1855 Treaty of Commerce and Boundaries. The southern Kuril Islands became part of the USSR at the end of World War II, and Russia's sovereignty over them, which has international legal status, is not in doubt - this is Russia's position / Thomas Peter / Reuters

Russia and Japan begin peace treaty talks