The unobvious leader. Yulia Tymoshenko is nominated to the presidency of Ukraine

The ex-Prime Minister of Ukraine, one of the most “long-playing” politicians in the country-Julia Tymoshenko on January 22, was nominated by his party "Fatherland" as a candidate for the post of Ukrainian president. The first round of election of the head of state should be held on March 31. But the winner will most likely be determined only in April - based on the results of the second round. Although Yulia Tymoshenko now has the highest ratings among all 13 registered candidates, sociologists do not give her firm guarantees of entering the second round.

Speaking at the Congress of "Fatherland" at the Kiev Palace of Sports, Tymoshenko in election speech said that if she wins in the first 100 days of work as the head of state would not demonstrate serious results, she would resign. At the congress, a video message of the former President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili, who expressed the support of Tymoshenko, deported from Ukraine to Poland, was demonstrated from Ukraine and said that Ukraine could become a "great country" if the current president Petro Poroshenko was removed from power.

Yulia Tymoshenko welcomes conflict veterans in eastern Ukraine

Yulia Tymoshenko was already president, but not countries, but the Unified Energy Systems of Ukraine Corporation. Being the head of the EES, who was engaged in the sale of gas, she came to big policy more than 20 years ago. In 1997, Tymoshenko for the first time became a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, was the deputy prime minister and chief opponent of the then president of the country Leonid Kuchma. During his reign, Tymoshenko was twice arrested, including in the case of evasion of the EEC of taxes. After the "Orange Revolution" in 2005, and then two years later (2007–2010), she headed the government.

During the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych Tymoshenko, he was sentenced to seven years on charges of exceeding the premier powers when signing ten -year -old gas contracts with Russia in 2009. She was released in 2014, after the "Revolution of Dignity" . Tymoshenko goes to the current elections with the program "New Course of Ukraine", calling for the creation of a new public agreement, another economic course and a strategy for concluding peace. According to all sociological research, the leader of the "Fatherland" remains the invariable leader of the election race.

The upcoming elections for Tymoshenko, says political consultant Alexander Harebin , is probably the last chance for her to become the president of Ukraine:

Now there is a struggle between the old system and new leaders

- Now there is a struggle between the old system and the new leaders who can "hack" the system, that is, to play not according to its rules. When sociology shows that Yulia Tymoshenko is a number one in all ratings, but with a huge level of distrust and with an electoral ceiling, according to some estimates, 25% of the vote, there is reason to doubt her potential victory. Because the number of undefined large - about 30–35% of voters will make a decision only by coming to polling stations. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to speak more than two months before the election whether Tymoshenko will become president. When the leaders of the presidential race go, as they say, “nostrils to the nostril” and the gap between them is a share of a percent, it is impossible to call a clear leader.

-Tymoshenko’s opponents claim that her election by the President of Ukraine would have arranged Vladimir Putin, since it is supposed to agree on many problematic issues of Ukrainian-Russian relations with her.

- As a person who is well versed in the political cuisine of today, I doubt it - for several reasons. We see that Putin’s rating in Russia is catastrophically falling . And Yulia Tymoshenko is an experienced politician and, I hope, is not so stupid as to join the coalition and agreement with the president with such electoral trust as Putin’s. I assume that for Tymoshenko, power is above all, and it is the desire to stay in power after Putin that will be the limiter who will not allow her to surrender the interests of Ukraine. To date, it is impossible to say with confidence that Yulia Tymoshenko is a pro -Kremlin politician. She was this in fact approved by her ten years ago, being the Prime Minister, unprofitable for Ukraine, gas contracts with Russia. Now, if she becomes the president, rational considerations and the need to protect their own power will objectively coincide with the interests of Ukraine, and it will not depend on external players.

Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Putin when they were the prime ministers of Ukraine and Russia. Moscow, 2008

- Yulia Tymoshenko is often criticized for populism. A few months ago, she promised after winning the election to halve gas prices for the population. Is it real?

- From an economic point of view, this seems unrealistic. Firstly, the presidential powers do not include the regulation of economic relations, this is the competence of the Cabinet of Ministers and Gosmonopolies, which are responsible for pricing. However, knowing how Yulia Tymoshenko goes to power, knowing the tools that the president has, we can assume the following algorithm: Tymoshenko will nevertheless achieve a reduction in gas price, although, on the contrary, the increase in this price is recorded in the memorandum signed by Ukraine with the International Monetary Fund, in this case there will be another direction in which Ukraine may have difficulty. Nevertheless, knowing Tymoshenko, it can be assumed that she would have done the following: I would initiate the checks of the State Monopolies in the part, from where the gas is purchased, at what price, what state or private “gaskets” are between the so -called European gas price and the Ukrainian consumer. Theoretically, using such an instrumentation, you can force state monopols to reduce the price of gas by removing the “gaskets” and intermediaries.

It is impossible to say with confidence that Yulia Tymoshenko is a pro -Kremlin politician

The General Director of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology Vladimir Paniotto , commenting on public opinion polls, notes that Yulia Tymoshenko’s leadership in election ratings does not guarantee her automatic entering the second round:

- This only means that she has more chances than other candidates. Unfortunately, these elections will be very different from all previous ones. And their main difference is a very high level of distrust of all social institutions, including all politicians and applicants for the post of head of state. Yulia Tymoshenko has a rating in comparison with other potential candidates from 12% to 14%. And of course, this is not enough to be confident more than two months before the elections that she will fall into the second round. Our polls show that 30% of Ukrainians have not decided on their choice. This is a lot. In addition, most of these 30%, most likely, will not come to the polls. Changes at least several percent before the voting date are possible, so there is no reason to declare that the leader of the "Fatherland" is guaranteed to go to the second round.

According to polls, in addition to Yulia Tymoshenko, the first five applicants for the presidential chair include the current head of state Petro Poroshenko, showman Vladimir Zelensky, the leader of the Civil Position party Anatoly Gritsenko and a representative of the Opposition Platform - for the life of Yuri Boyko. At the same time, the distance between Yulia Tymoshenko, participants in the presidential race, remains minimal. Vladimir Paniotto continues:

- Honestly, I was surprised by such a lot of attention to ratings even before the time when it was not known who would specifically take part in the elections. In fact, the ratings were formed taking into account the lists that were offered to respondents. And even some political technologists did not take into account the sample error when they commented on these differences. In general, from this five by chance, one or the second was in second place. With numbers over 50%, the sample error is more than 3%, but with small indicators, as ours, somewhere around 1.5–2%.

It should also be borne in mind that we do not really have state statistics. The last census was 18 years ago, and our State Statistics Committee operates only in the figures for the birth rate and mortality, does not take into account the migration of the population, and its level is very high. Therefore, statistics that all Ukrainian sociologists use in order to form a sample in proportion to the number of voters in the regions are very unreliable. Thus, it is problematic to say now who has more chances to get into the second round of elections. But I would like to note that if Poroshenko gets into the second round, then he may have great difficulties, because of those candidates who can compete with him (Yulia Tymoshenko, Anatoly Gritsenko, Vladimir Zelensky, Yuri Boyko), as evidenced by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, together with the sociological service of the Razumkov Center, the president wins only Boyko.

Sworn friends: Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, November 2014

Many experts believe that Yulia Tymoshenko will meet in the second round of the elections and has not yet officially announced his nomination for the second presidential term by Petro Poroshenko. However, the director of the New Ukraine Institute for Strategic Research Andrei Ermolaev also believes that it is too early to draw conclusions:

- Tymoshenko has a very expensive campaign, but very chaotic in content. And I will be notorginal if I say that she rested on certain ceilings - electoral and image, and in terms of the very potential of the campaign, although it is undoubtedly that it is today a favorite. Poroshenko has his own restrictions, primarily related to the fact that he fails to break the current negative image. I want to pay attention to the fact that the agenda of Poroshenko, or, as I call it, "Poroshenko code", has already been adopted by society. In the ideological programs of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Lyashko, Gritsenko and a number of figures there are no more significant differences. They essentially play with the general formed moods of Ukraine after the revolution and against the background of the war in the east of the country.

As for their system opponents, here is the problem in a firmly formulated alternative. Oppositionists find out relations with each other and reduce their chances, although the potential and request for some reasonable, systemic alternative to Poroshenko’s code exists in society. The problem is not so much in the possibilities at the start, but in the election scenario, where there will be very many random factors, for example, the problem of war and peace, the possibility of repeating the incident in the Kerch Strait area, which can generally change the course of political and not only related elections.

Without scandals and, possibly, even tragic events we can not do in these elections

The second point is the growth of social stress. Now winter - with all its disconnects, receipts with increased tariffs and the behavior of people with low incomes. And the third important point is a growing political stress. I do not want to run ahead, but it seems to me that without political scandals and, possibly, even tragic events, probably we can’t do in these elections. The voltage level is too high, and we are dealing with an armed, militarized, quite inflated society over the years. Therefore, now it is difficult to assume how Martha will have the balance of power and who will have any preferences. Each of the candidates has its disadvantages - who has personnel, who has image, ”says Andrei Ermolaev.

He is convinced that February will become a key month in the struggle for votes of voters of presidential candidates.