Gleb Kuznetsov: "Chavism is a great degree of nationalism"

The political scientist describes in detail on Facebook the essence of the regime that has developed in Venezuela, noting that the coming to power of the opposition will not allow the country to quickly solve problems, but will give some hopes. About the real government of Venezuela and the participation of the ruling elite in drug trafficking.

"1. Venezuela was the richest country of South America. Actually, wealth served her poor service. Engineers, doctors, bankers, entrepreneurs, and so on, during the rapid growth of oil industry from the middle of the 20th century, they all turned out to be" brooding. "The local white elite since the transfer of Jimenes, instead of raising its own middle class, imported him as a subject of premium consumption-as a subject of premium consumption-as a subject of premium consumption- The exchange for oil outfits.

2. Actually the idea of ​​chavism - if you cleanse it from husk - this is the redistribution of income from the "bad" guys - the white elite, the middle class bought by it, its "overseas owners" from the USA and Europe - to "good": Indians, Creole, Mulattos, Sambo. The popularity of Chavez is among the people and the first objective successes of his reign were associated precisely with large -scale social projects that increased the access of social "victims" from local to education, healthcare, pure water, social assistance, and so on. In addition, the support on the army (and the army had to be pulled out of the control of the "White Elite", to form their own officers) implied the need for the exponential growth in the cost of buying the loyalty of security forces.

3. As a result, it is precisely the need for the exponential increase in expenses for everything - from its own corrupt elite to the Indians in the jungle - turned into a disaster. At first they kicked out foreigners (in order to be able to sell oil, they had to pay compensation, which additionally fell on external debt), then they plundered a large business, then medium, then small shops. From the point of view of the theory of Chavism, it was all OK, because it belonged not to real Venezuens, but by an alien national-class element. Chavism is a great degree of nationalism, this is often forgotten.

4. Today Venezuela is a classic Failed state. The fact that there is no toilet paper - half a bastard. Water and electricity-2 hours a day, there is no drug, there is no difficult medical care. For example, dialysis - an elementary procedure for today's times - has not been performed for many years, which condemned the kidney patients to a quick and painful death. There are already millions of refugees in neighboring countries, and in the case of the continuation of the dynamics there will be much more - this is what the friendly support of the coup bordering the Venezuela of countries is associated with this. Fans of "comparative studies" must be aware that Ukraine, Armenia, and a cube for a resident of Venezuela are the same as Switzerland or Norway for us.

5. Nicholas Maduro. The key figure around which the regime is not he is, but one of the leaders of the failed first Chavezovsky coup of 1992, later the key figure and vice-vice in the Chavez administration, the former minister of the whole in the world, and now the head of the Constitutional Assembly, who replaced the country's parliament, is believed, one of the leaders of the drug core of Los Solnes, leading TV shows and generally an extremely interesting figure in Diosdado Cabel.

6. It was the cable, whose function was to provide a connection between all the pillars and fellow travelers of Chavism, by the army, party, media and the “white educated” who swore allegiance to the Chavez, today objectively is the real leader of the state, while Maduro waves a flag in front of the television camera. He is negotiating, invigorating generals, simultaneously acts with warlike statements and claims to be in touch with Guydo (“He told me that he was experiencing great pressure from abroad,” Guydo: “Cable is lying even when he tells the truth”). Cables have no future in the world without chavism, it is under American sanctions as the organizer of drug trafficking (arrested assets of $ 800 million) and under investigation as the organizer of the attempt by Senator Marco Rubio, the most consistent critic of the Venezuelan government in the States.

7. When the Narcos series will reach Mexico to Venezuela and their state drug cartel Los Soles. It is Cableo that will become the main antihero of the season. If Chavez has put a certain political idea in support of the drug dealer - this is a “war with the United States in Colombia” and tried to use Farc resources rather than to personally operate drug trafficking, then after his death, Generals Venezuela took on direct drug trafficking functions, maximizing the income and reputation costs. It got to the point that the high -ranking security forces arriving in Spain is seized by half a ton of cocaine, and Venezuela’s civil aviation services are caught that they provide fake codes of civilian airliners with drugs with drugs. Actually, the exposed direct relationship of the Higher General of Venezuela and the drug trafficking and creates a resolution of strength for the regime - men are simply nowhere to go in the new world after Maduro except in prison.

8. Drug trafficking, smuggling received according to public procurement in Colombia and a black market - three whales of the welfare of the current elite of Venezuela. Oil today is fuel for those same public procurement, and not a way of enriching elites, as it was before Chavez. Society was extremely simplified and degraded. Emigration cleaned the wealthy and educated. So, in every European country there is a program of returning home "Venezuelans" of Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, German origin. Those who have nowhere to return are in neighboring states for the most part. That is, no change of power today will solve the problems of the country. This is important to understand optimists. But the preservation of power by the Chavists does not even give hope to solve these very problems.

9. Therefore, my forecast is this - the victory of the “opposition” will not allow you to form a stable effective government and Venezuela is waiting for a lot of shocks, this time. And two, the victory of the Chavistov will also not allow them to count on stability and political longevity. 25 million people want state, light, water, medicine, moreover, they have life experience in the state, but today there is no state in Venezuela. And there are no chances that it will appear in the creative union with the birds of Maduro and the Los Soles cartel either. Where is the exit? I think that in the second-third “generation” of the military-today's majoror and lieutenant colonel are, firstly, they are not exposed to drug dealers, like their bosses, secondly, live more than ordinary Venezuens than the Chavist elite. It is they who will say their word. If not today, then in the future for several years.

10. As for the investors in the potentially “white sector” of the economy - to the oil industry, it is important for them to understand that they are more hostage in the current situation than real partners of Venezuelan elites. Oil is not earnings for them, and not even a promise of earnings. It is rather a way to force someone to do with them at least someone, and ensuring the currency for public procurement of everything and everything. The Chinese - judging by the sharp reduction in contacts and fixing losses in the Venezuelan direction - understand this. In order for Venezuelan oil to become interesting and profitable in the strategic perspective, the country needs to go through a lot - to stop inflation, restore the basic functions of the state, radically limit the meaning of the security forces with drug trafficking. "