The Penultimate Warning: What Will Remain After the INF Treaty Is Broken

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is suspended. There is no chance of its renewal. What will happen next?

One of the most important nuclear deterrence agreements, the Russian-American Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), has effectively been terminated . Experts believe that the deployment of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe is not to be expected in the near future. But the INF agreement was the penultimate active nuclear treaty between Russia and the United States, and the latest, START-3, expires in 2021. It is difficult to even guess what will replace them.

What's happened

The United States is suspending its obligations under the INF Treaty from Saturday, February 2, according to a statement by Donald Trump released by the White House the day before.

• To comply with the terms of the agreement, Russia must destroy all banned missiles, launch systems and related equipment, it said. Otherwise, the treaty will be terminated permanently in six months, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said. In the event of withdrawal from the treaty, the United States will begin to develop "its own military response," Trump warned.
• At a press conference hours later, Trump told reporters that he planned to offer Russia a new arms control treaty, but gave no details.
• Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called Trump's statement "part of the American strategy to relieve itself of international obligations" and stated that Moscow reserves the right to respond.
• The US statement was supported by NATO, but European countries, which would be the first to be threatened by the agreement's collapse, are against it: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it was necessary to try to preserve the treaty.

Why is this important?

The INF Treaty was signed by the USSR and the USA in 1987 and became one of the main symbols of the end of the Cold War. The parties committed to eliminate all systems of cruise and ballistic missiles of medium (1,000 to 5,500 km) and short (500 to 1,000 km) range, and not to produce, test or deploy such missiles in the future. The main goal of the treaty was to reduce tensions in Europe, where both superpowers deployed nuclear launchers. It was after its signing that Europe ceased to be considered a battlefield in a potential nuclear conflict between the USSR and the USA.

Who violated the agreement and how

As always in such cases, the parties blame each other for the collapse of the agreement.

• Russia has violated the INF Treaty “with impunity by covertly developing and deploying a prohibited missile system,” Trump said in a statement. The missile in question is the 9M729, developed in the second half of the 2000s. Since 2014, the United States has accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty by deliberately designing the missile to resemble approved counterparts. By the end of 2018, according to U.S. data, Russia had deployed several divisions of land-based 9M729s — a direct violation of the treaty, if true. Russia initially denied developing the missile, but now claims that it complies with INF Treaty restrictions.
• Russia's counter-accusations are somewhat less serious: our officials do not directly talk about the deployment of systems with prohibited missiles. Nevertheless, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the US is testing its own medium-range missiles under the guise of targets for missile defense systems, and is also deploying AEGIS Ashore systems with MK-41 launchers in Europe, which can launch prohibited medium-range Tomahawk missiles.

What happens next?

The fate of the INF Treaty is most likely predetermined, believes international expert Vladimir Frolov. Even with all the desire, to satisfy American demands, Russia would have to destroy 100 transport and launch containers with the disputed missiles and 60-70 launchers, and this would mean a de facto recognition of the violation of the treaty. Some negotiations with the participation of interested European countries led by Germany are possible, but they are unlikely to lead to any result: both sides will not retreat from their positions.

Technically, the US is capable of developing and deploying medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe by the beginning of the next decade, military expert and director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov told Vedomosti. However, Frolov is confident that the US will not go for the actual deployment of medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe: they will rather try to negotiate the deployment of nuclear weapons with their Asian allies, such as Japan or South Korea.

After the INF Treaty is torn up, the only nuclear deterrence treaty left will be the basic New START Treaty, which expires in 2021. It is not yet clear what will replace it. Trump’s latest statement suggests that he is counting on some kind of joint Russian-Chinese-American talks on strategic deterrence, says Frolov. According to the FT and the Japanese newspaper Nikkei, this was what was discussed during Putin’s 15-minute conversation with Trump at the G20 summit in December, which the American president held without his interpreter.

Petr Mironenko