The Ukrainian authorities opened a case of a stateism against Viktor Medvedchuk, an important intermediary in relations with Russia. What will this affect?

The Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine opened a criminal case against the pro -Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. He is accused of criminal articles on encroachment on the territorial integrity of the country and Gosizman. Medusa asked the journalist and author of the Moscow Center of Carnegie Konstantin Skorkin to tell about this case and how it will affect the presidential election and the situation in the Donbass.

Who is Medvedchuk? What is his role in Ukrainian politics?

Viktor Medvedchuk is known in Ukraine primarily as the “kum of Putin”: according to the media reports, the Russian president is the godfather of his daughter Daria. In Ukrainian politics, “Kumi” is considered an important element of an informal union. For example, the current president Petro Poroshenko and former President Viktor Yushchenko - Kumovya.

A close acquaintance with Putin allows Medvedchuk to maintain political weight during the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. He plays the role of an unofficial intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow, for example, in the exchange of prisoners of war. Medvedchuk participated in the tripartite contact group in Minsk on the issue of Donbass, and although since 2018 it has not officially working in it, the role of an informal negotiator remains behind him. For example, it was in this capacity that in January this year he participated in negotiations with the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Last year, Medvedchuk flew 21 times to Moscow with a special forces (there is no direct air service between Ukraine and Russia).

At the same time, Medvedchuk plays the role of the chief organizer of the pro -Russian opposition - he is the chairman of the political council of the Opposition Platform - for Life, who nominated the presidential candidate Yuri Boyko (January rating within 10%). In addition, Medvedchuk through intermediaries controls two popular Ukrainian television channels - News One and 112 Ukraine. These channels are among the most popular in Ukraine and harshly criticize the current government. The unofficial influence of Medvedchuk is attributed to the inclusion in the Russian sanctions lists of Ukrainian politicians from the pro -Russian camp of the former Party of Regions that did not want to cooperate with Kum Putin.

Medvedchuk is the son of a Ukrainian nationalist who was serving a term in the Gulag, the lawyer of the dissident Vasil Stus (his client was convicted for a long time and died in the camp in 1985). During the reign of President Kuchma Medvedchuk, he was the head of his administration, had the image of the Gray Cardinal, who manipulated the media and formed the parliamentary majority in favor of his boss.

The politician twice made an unsuccessful bet in the presidential election-at Viktor Yanukovych in 2004 and Yulia Tymoshenko in 2010, but each time he was afloat again. In 2013, his movement “Ukrainian Choice” led a campaign against the policy of rapprochement with the European Union, which Yanukovych then conducted, that is, he was in the pro -Russian opposition Yanukovych.

What is Medvedchuk accused of?

The basis for Medvedchuk’s extension from the Prosecutor General’s Office was his speech at the congress of the “opposition platform - for life”, in which he advocated amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, which provide an autonomous status to the Donbass. “Our plan was built on the Minsk agreements approved by the UN Security Council by the Norman format declaration and, most importantly, the current legislation of Ukraine,” the politician said. From the point of view of his prosecutors, the proposal of Medvedchuk means the legalization of the self -proclaimed LPR and the DPR in the Ukrainian legal field and completely contradicts the country's constitution.

Nevertheless, the Medvedchuk project really echoes the terms of the 2015 Minsk agreements, which provide for the restoration of Ukraine’s control over certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions with the provision of wide government. There is also a precedent of the entry into Ukraine - unitary state of the state of the state - the autonomous Republic of Crimea. Viktor Medvedchuk as an experienced lawyer will undoubtedly use these arguments in his defense.

He already had a similar case: in 2016, he himself filed a lawsuit and won the court of the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Andrei Parubiy, who accused him of patronizing the Donbass separatists. Then the Pechersk court recognized the words of Parubiy that Medvedchuk had financed separatist organizations.

How will Medvedchuk's case affect the election of the President of Ukraine?

Of course, Medvedchuk’s statements look radically against the background of rhetoric even his like -minded people who try to resort to evasive formulations when it comes to the Donbass. He clearly strives for the polarization of the election struggle, goes to aggravate, campaigning for a candidate from his party - Yuri Boyko. It seems that Medvedchuk believes that the opposition should formulate the most confrontational proposal in relation to the post -Maidan authority and only in this way it will be able to return the electorate of the former Party of Regions.

Due to the case of Gosizman, Medvedchuk will appear in the image of a victim of political repressions, which will increase his authority among the pro-Russian electorate, whose voices can be counted on the Boyko protege. Official Moscow is already supporting this picture with its statements in support of the disgraced politician.

But Medvedchuk’s tactics are also beneficial to Petro Poroshenko. He can show his voters a clear image of the enemy - revengeists, striving for an open conspiracy with the leaders of the separatists and Putin.

For Poroshenko, who is ahead of Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Zelensky, an attack on Medvedchuk, is another attempt to like the national-patriotic electorate and at the same time dissociate himself in secret cooperation with the odious politician (journalists of the Schemes project proved that Medvedchuk is a frequent guest of the president on Bankova).

Nevertheless, there is no particular reason to believe that the persecution of Medvedchuk will radically affect the mood of voters.

Will this complicate this negotiations on settlement in the Donbass?

The idea of ​​the reintegration of Donbass in Ukraine is one of the favorable scenarios of the outcome of the conflict for Moscow. Voters from this region will strengthen the position of pro -Russian forces in the Verkhovna Rada (without the Crimea and Donbass, the scenario of their victory became practically impossible), and the region itself will become a lever of influence on Kyiv policy. Therefore, Viktor Medvedchuk as a consistent pro -Russian politician defends his implementation.

However, such a scenario is not satisfied with official Kyiv, which is afraid of destabilization and unrest in the country, up to the military coup, if representatives of the separatists are in the Verkhovna Rada. The resolution of the Donbass conflict is at a dead end, from which it is hardly possible to quickly get out even in case of a change in power in Kyiv.

The intermediary role of Medvedchuk, who made him untouched in previous years, during the period of exacerbation of the political struggle, it seems, is no longer satisfied with Kyiv. But there is no alternative to him. The head of the Ukrainian delegation in the tripartite contact group, Yevgeny Marchuk, in an interview with BBC-SI Ukraine, said that earlier Medvedchuk at negotiations in Minsk was a representative from the SBU and the mediator at the presidents level. Now, according to him, “another person” acts from the SBU, but the role of Medvedchuk as a political intermediary between Kiev and Moscow seems to be preserved .

The persecution of Medvedchuk, of course, will tighten the position of Russia. But since the Minsk process has long come to a dead end and the relations of the two countries are hopelessly spoiled, this will not change the situation radically. Without Medvedchuk, they will come to a standstill and negotiations on the exchange of prisoners, although he has not had any special success with this recently.

How will Medvedchuk work end?

The hasty of the case indicates its election character. It is possible that the production will be quietly closed after the elections (regardless of who will win). However, perhaps Poroshenko, trying to prove their decisiveness in the fight against the “hand of Moscow”, will instruct the Prosecutor General’s Office and the SBU to speed up (before the elections) of the action in the Medvedchuk case, and he will be arrested. In this case, you can expect the Kremlin’s sharp reaction: freezing the exchange of prisoners of war, new sanctions against Ukrainian politicians and businessmen. But, most likely, Medvedchuk, faced with the real threat of arrest, will temporarily leave the country.

In Ukraine, criminal cases of stateisms and attempt on territorial integrity are regularly instituted, in the period from 2014 to 2018, the SBU opened production against 218 people, mainly security forces and activists of Antimaydan . Most of the VIP-assumed according to these articles (the former head of the SBU Yakimenko, the former commander of the Ukrainian Navy Denis Berezovsky, etc.) left the country, the case reached the verdict only in the event of a fugitive ex-president of Yanukovych. The case of the former head of the faction of the Party of Regions of Alexander, who did not have time to leave the country and placed in jail on charges of encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, has been considered for the third year. Medvedchuk already refused to leave Ukraine on the air of the Russia channel, but the weak legal base of the prosecution, most likely, will simply lead to the collapse of the case.

Konstantin Skorkin