Leonid Volkov: important post with numbers

Over these 11 years, the average temperature in the hospital has not changed, but the rich have become much richer, and the poor, therefore, poorer

All data below is from Rosstat and other official sources; easy to check.

1. Real disposable incomes of the population have been falling for five years in a row. As a result, they fell to about the level of 2007. But 2007 was, frankly, not the worst year for the Russian economy! What, one asks, are we sad and noah, citizens?

2. At first glance, the reason is purely psychological. Still, 2007 was a year of great consumer optimism, when incomes, pushing off the crisis bottom of 1998, grew 9 years in a row (and now they have been falling for 5 years in a row). By the way, oil on average for the year cost almost exactly the same in 2007 as in 2018 ($72 per barrel of Brent then, $70 now). That is, the point on the graph is the same, but the vector is different - that's the citizens whining. But in fact, there is no need to whine, we live normally.

3. But if you delve a little into the numbers (and just listen to your feelings), it becomes clear that this is not the only thing. Some things have changed a lot. Namely, inequality. During these 11 years, the average temperature in the hospital has not changed, but the rich have become much richer (and the poor, therefore, poorer).

4a. So, in the Russian Forbes list for 2018 there are 106 dollar billionaires, and for 2007 there are “only” 59 of them. 200. The combined wealth of Russian billionaires has grown from $280 billion to $520 billion.

4b. Thus, according to Rosstat, in 2007, 18.8 million people (13.3% of the population) were below the poverty line, in 2018 - 20.8 million people (14.2%). The increase seems to be small (although - think about it - this is 2 million beggars) - but there is also a lot of suspiciousness with the official figures. The cost of living in 2007 was considered by Rosstat to be 4,000 rubles ($165 at the then exchange rate), and now it is 10,000 rubles ($150). But there was also inflation in the USA, it amounted to 22.6% over this period, and $165 of the 2007 sample is more than $200 in 2018. That is, it turns out that in dollar terms, the official “poverty line” in Russia has decreased by almost a third (and still there are more beggars).

1. Well, we must not forget that at that time there was a much larger "gray sector", much more income was in the shadows and was not taken into account in any way by statistics. This is now everyone who is an IP-shnik, who is self-employed; the state has learned to quite successfully get into the pocket of both those who bomb while driving and those who rent out the great-grandmother's apartment. Accordingly, if now, in more “white” statistics, there are the same number of beggars as in 2007, then in reality their share is much larger.

2. Yes, the official inflation from 2007 to 2018 was just 150% (which exactly corresponds to the change in the subsistence minimum from 4 to 10 thousand rubles), although you are unlikely to find a product that would have risen in price over the years by only 2.5 times. But the stratification between the rich and the poor grew not only "vertically", but also "horizontally" too. Let's remember the inflation rate of 2.5 times and look at this.

3. The budget of Moscow in 2007 (in terms of income) was 800 billion rubles, in 2018 - 2.4 trillion rubles (an increase of 3 times). Budget revenues, for example, in Yekaterinburg in 2007 - 19.3 billion rubles, in 2018 - 36.5 billion rubles (an increase of less than 2 times).

4. Well, at the level of sensations, in 2007 a real boom was felt in many Russian millionaires, and millions of young people certainly did not dream of moving to Moscow (or outside Russia) as the only chance for success. Now this is clearly not the case.

Draw your own conclusions.

I was convinced once again for myself how right it was that we made the topic of appalling poverty and inequality the leitmotif of our entire political campaign in 2017-18 and continue to deal with it.

PS: No, well, after all, one conclusion needs to be said. We don't exist in a vacuum. The whole world did not stand still these 11 years; the fact that Russia has not improved in 11 years is a big misfortune in itself, but in comparison with how the world has changed, it is a disaster, a complete moral bankruptcy of the government, which over the years has only learned better to torture, imprison and steal.

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