Sochi victory for Lukashenko

Three-day Russian-Belarusian talks ended in favor of Minsk: Moscow will continue to provide economic assistance and no longer requires rapid integration

The series of negotiations between Lukashenka and Putin, which lasted from September last year, finally ended with a “three-day sitting” in Sochi. Judging by the first statements after the meeting, the dispute ended traditionally: the model of sluggish integration was preserved, while maintaining economic support from Russia. True, this support will noticeably weaken, but the "father" fought off Moscow's demands to force integration up to the merger into one state.

half a year of strife

Since the second half of last year, Alexander Lukashenko began a series of meetings with Vladimir Putin. At first, Lukashenka tried to negotiate that he would simply be returned the economic subsidies ($10 billion a year in various forms) that the Kremlin has been feeding the “unique Belarusian economic model” for the past 25 years.

But then, approximately from October 2018, official Minsk had to fight back from Moscow’s desire to sharply accelerate the formation of the Belarusian-Russian union up to the merger into a single state. The Treaty on the Union State of Belarus and Russia, signed in December 1999, was pulled out from under the cloth and put on the negotiating table. Moscow insisted : if Minsk wants to continue to receive funding from the Russian Federation, then it must agree to the creation of unified institutions in pursuance of the agreement. That is, to create a single emission center, a single customs office, a court and the Accounts Chamber. And also for many other things, including the admission of Russian capital to the privatization of Belarusian state-owned enterprises.

For at least seven recent meetings with the head of Russia, including talks between governments, in an expanded format, in a narrow format, face to face, etc., Alexander Lukashenko tried to achieve at least a partial return of the status quo: Russia does not insist on such rapid integration into a single state, but retains economic support.

Lukashenka held closed meetings with his entourage, where he discussed how to survive if the negotiations ended in nothing, and demonstrated to Moscow his readiness to improve relations with the United States and Europe.

The Sochi talks became the longest in a series of these meetings. For three days, February 13, 14 and 15, Vladimir Putin was forced to devote much of his time to the Belarusian president, who flew in to visit with his family and government.

Integration to the best of times

As a result of the negotiations, it became clear that Russia would not insist on rapid integration within the framework of the Union State. Moreover, the presidents of Belarus and Russia generally decided to postpone the issue of a single state until better times.

Lukashenka himself spoke about this as follows: “We frankly tell each other that we are not eternal, we will leave one day. And what will we leave to our children? How will they continue our policy? This, too, cannot but excite us as politicians.”

Lukashenka confirmed that he is determined to unite with Russia. But he made it dependent on the mood in society. “I will express my opinion, I think my colleague and my friend (Vladimir Putin) will agree with this: we are ready to go as far in unity and uniting our efforts, states and peoples, as far as you are ready,” Lukashenko said, addressing reporters. - Listen, tomorrow we can unite together, we have no problems, but are you, Russians and Belarusians, ready for this? If people are not ready, then no matter how powerful and huge Russia is, today it is not able to impose its will on someone.”

Perhaps Moscow was convinced by the demonstration of loyalty on the part of the Belarusian president, which took place on the eve of the negotiations. For the sake of meeting with Putin, Lukashenka defiantly canceled his participation in the 55th Munich Security Conference from February 15 to 17. The organizers of the conference invited the head of Belarus to take part in a panel discussion on February 16 on the topic “East-West Relations”.

Lukashenka was scheduled to speak with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Georgian Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze and OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger. However, at the very last moment, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry announced that "the visit was canceled due to the need to resolve important issues of Belarusian-Russian relations."

tax maneuver

Minsk officials and experts, with whom the NT correspondent spoke, expected from the Sochi talks to discuss one of the main disagreements between Belarus and Russia today - the tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry.

The tax maneuver has already led to a rise in oil prices for Belarusian enterprises and a decrease in revenues from the sale of petroleum products to Europe - and this is one of the main sources of replenishing the state budget. According to the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, budget losses in the first year of the tax maneuver alone will amount to at least $300 million, based on oil prices at $70 per barrel. And then they will only grow.

Lukashenko himself has repeatedly stated that the tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry poses a threat to the independence of his country. “You can simply say: get oil, but let's destroy the country and join Russia,” Lukashenka was angry in front of television cameras. Moscow, in turn, noted that there were no agreements between the two countries on compensation for the tax maneuver. As Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated, in particular, "the tax maneuver is Russia's internal affair."

In Sochi, Putin unobtrusively reminded of the Belarusian debts and that Russia, although it promised, has not yet deprived Belarus of its main bonus - the supply of cheap hydrocarbons. “Our financial relations are also developing, in recent years a fairly large volume of state loans has been issued to Belarus: more than six billion dollars plus 58 billion rubles. The EAEU fund has six tranches totaling $1.6 billion,” the head of Russia said . “Volumes of supplies of hydrocarbons, oil and gas remain at the level that we agree with you.”

If the issue of compensation for the tax maneuver suddenly became irrelevant, and Lukashenka did not immediately fall into depression, it means that he was offered something very significant, which is still kept secret, the NT interlocutor believes

In response, Lukashenka made it clear that Belarus means more to Russia economically than they are used to thinking: “The economy of Belarus is the final production of the Russian economy. We buy raw materials, components - 60-70% of the main machine-building products, oil refining we buy in Russia, so this is our common economy, and by supporting us, you, of course, support about 35-40 million people, along with the families of people who work at Russian enterprises, who deliver products to Belarus.

However, after the meeting, it suddenly turned out that, it turns out, the Russian tax maneuver, which cost Alexander Grigoryevich so many nerves at the end of last year, does not bother him anymore. Moreover, answering the question whether a decision had been made on the subject of the tax maneuver, Lukashenka said that it had not been discussed with Putin: we, in my opinion, did not even utter this word during these three days.

Further, the Belarusian leader doubted that this issue is the most important in Russian-Belarusian relations, noting that there are other problems that need to be resolved. “We were just talking about the fact that journalists will definitely ask this question, as if this is the most important problem in relations between Belarus and Russia,” Lukashenka said. “There is a whole range of problems that we discussed before the New Year and continue to deal with it now.”

What did Lukashenka get

“We don't know a lot about the agreements that were reached in Sochi. So far, everything looks like that Lukashenka, as usual, got what he wanted from Moscow. Albeit with much greater effort and at the cost of considerable losses, - said NT the Belarusian politician, leader of the civil campaign "Our House" Olga Karach to . “If the issue of compensation for the tax maneuver suddenly became irrelevant, and Lukashenka did not immediately fall into a depression, it means that he was offered something very significant, which is still kept secret.”

A roadmap has already been signed on the procedure for lifting mutual restrictions on the supply of livestock products for 2019. That is, Belarusian milk, cheeses, eggs, meat, etc. will go to Russia without any barriers. More than 80% of food produced in Belarus is exported to Russia

In any case, it is obvious that Russia will continue to support the Belarusian economy, including by opening its market for Belarusian enterprises. A roadmap has already been signed on the procedure for lifting mutual restrictions on the supply of livestock products for 2019. That is, Belarusian milk, cheeses, eggs, meat, etc. will go to Russia without any barriers. More than 80% of food produced in Belarus is exported to Russia.

“Whatever the conflicts and scandals, we must remember that we will never supply the Russians with either bad vodka or bad snacks, you must clearly understand this,” Lukashenka summed up, addressing Putin .

No other agreements have been announced yet. “Probably, Russia will stop insisting on the quick implementation of the Union State treaty, and Lukashenka will have to curtail good relations with Ukraine,” suggests Olga Karach. “But in early March there will be a big press conference by Lukashenko, I hope a lot will become clear at it.”

However, after the meeting there were signs that the directive to “move to the West” had not been cancelled. Minsk is waiting for a large delegation of representatives of the Visegrad Group (it includes several EU countries from Eastern Europe). At the same time, the process of Belarus' accession to the WTO has been sharply accelerated.

Photo: belsat.eu