
What will happen?
Problems in Russia grow like a snowball. The Putin system has unchanged approaches to the economy, to foreign policy, in relation to domestic subjects - regional and professional elites. Life is changing, threats are changing, but politics - no.
The mechanism of selection and motivation of personnel leads to isolation of power from a large array of information, critical to ensure its legal capacity. The system not only does not respond to a change in external and internal circumstances, it does not even capture these changes. She does not notice how new threats ripen, and the old ones cease to be dangerous and fade into the background. This applies to internal and external security, mass activity management, as well as economics and changes in public consciousness. In all these areas, completely new threats of stability are actualized. However, both the power and those who inform it do not notice these threats or, in any case, do not react to them in any way.
The Putin system has long exhausted its capabilities, it is not able to reform itself. Putin’s political course absolutely blocks the possibility of modernizing the economy that is necessary to significantly improve the quality of life of people. This is not to mention the sanctions that cause Russian citizens direct and increasingly tangible damage. The recent message to the Federal Assembly is an obvious evidence that the Putin authorities have nothing to say to the country. The political course will remain unchanged: as before, it will be built around a group of oligarchs, inadequate foreign policy ambitions and arms race. More and more people understand this. Putin and his environment also understand that people understand everything.
Therefore, surrounded by the President is in a hurry to declare the eternity of the Putin system, for the preservation of which the main thing is not to touch anything. Just like Konstantin Pobedonostsev in 1896! True, immediately after this there were two revolutions and a coup d'etat ...
Obviously, the large -scale domestic political crisis is inevitable. The topic of the so -called "transit" of power is becoming more and more popular. They analyze possible successors, guess about changes in the Constitution, the State Council and the new dates of the old president. Meanwhile, Putin's rating continues to fall. And many are looking forward to transit, in the hope that the upcoming changes will seem to cause positive shifts in the country by themselves. This is wrong. Speaking about the fracture and transit, it must be represented which way the mood will swing and where the transition is.
In Russia today there are no strong opposition political parties, there are no trade unions, there is no respected (not bureaucratic!) Elite, there are no moral authorities.
Protest waves for various occasions rise here and there, but they are not converted into political action. Even raising the retirement age, which most citizens perceived (and rightly!) As a robbery, did not become a reason for mass political action. The Duma "left opposition" drained both the protest and the referendum.

Mass discontent, a decrease in the standard of living, the lack of normal public discussion, the militarization of society is the soil that those who have a financial, power and power resource, that is, representatives of the same system, already use their influence.
And above all, these are militarists and proto -fascists, since it is precisely these groups that in Putin’s current system have obvious ideological and organizational supports.
Constant in huge quantities of propaganda of hatred of “internal and external enemies” gives its results: the level of aggression and violence in everyday life is growing, and in politics this is purposefully encouraged and cultivated. Strength pressure with searches against the Pskov Yabloko is openly combined with gang threats of reprisals. A qualitatively new phenomenon, about which a lot has become known over the past year (despite the fact that it remains even more hidden) is private military companies. Now they are involved outside of Russia, but if desired, can easily be used within the country.
Since the elections are discredited, there is no legitimate mechanism for the transition of power. Someone Putin will call the successor. This figure will most likely be dependent and weak. Putin himself will try to maintain real power behind himself, but if, as a result of a fracture in society, his personal positions are weakened, then transit will take the form of a fight between power groups that merged with organized crime.
Whoever defeats in such a fight, the system will remain the same - the mafia, largely criminal state.
The prospects for the normal development of Russia will be moved away for an indefinite time.
Of course, the changes will sooner or later happen. But the circumstances in Russia today are such that if nothing is done, then, to put it mildly, not a cheerful scenario awaits us ahead - from bad to worse.
What to do?

I will begin with several important reasons, based on which you can count on a change in the country's development vector.
Today, the main question that defines the future is the ability of citizens to act politically, our own ability to engage in politics.
Desire and ability to engage in politics is extreme public value. Politics as a joint human action in the name of certain goals is one of the most special and important human abilities.
The destruction of politics as human creativity is the main goal of any totalitarian regime. The crisis of politics begins when accessing it to people directly or indirectly. At the same time, one of the ways to force people to abandon politics and thus maintain their mafia power into inviolability is the purposeful formation of a negative attitude to politics, condemning politics as something dirty, obviously corrupt and immoral.
The ability to act politically is primarily possibilities. In the experience of joint activities, everyone can show their uniqueness, reveal their personal potential. The appearance of individuals is an important advantage of this policy.
In modern Russian society, people are usually isolated from each other. Since the dominant logic of our time is economic, it is it that determines the relationship between people as competition. Personal, personal isolation is a prerequisite for the transition to populism and, in the end, even to totalitarianism. People in isolation lack the experience of joint actions. They do not have enough experience in order, acting together, to create something more than just realize individual abilities.
Acting together, you can form a huge force creating a national state.
Such power does not destroy, but, on the contrary, makes it possible not only to achieve political goals, but also the realization of individuality, identifying the specifics of an individual nature.
Putin's authoritarianism is primarily a form of government that seeks to deprive a person of dignity and respect, destroy individuality through fear and suppression. True joint policy, true courage, true power - in a joint struggle for the future. This is the only way to protect the real interests of the people and the country. At the same time, such a struggle does not destroy the personality, but rather puts forward the personal potential. But the peculiarity of the Putin era, as before the Soviet-Stalinsky, lies primarily in the absence of space for the manifestation of courage, strength and civil liability, that is, in the absence of politics.
This is manifested in several widespread misconceptions: for example, in the fact that there is no alternative to the Putin system, or in the fact that the main task of politics is to profit in it. The result of the disappearance of politics is also a wave of populism, which is extremely attractive to individuals who desperately in need of recognition. Thus, the coming crisis is not just a political crisis: people have lost access to politics. And this must be corrected.
How to do?

The approaching domestic political crisis is a significant instability of the system. If during the crisis in the society there will be even a relatively small organized group with a clear political goal, then just the instability of the system will allow us to achieve a lot and approach the implementation of the goal.
This is the rare moment when something can be done. This is the peculiarity of the crisis period, there are many historical examples.
It is necessary to deliberately organized, peaceful, but mass political action with a clear idea of the future that we want for ourselves and the country. Actually, the action, which is necessary as the first step, is the act of joining the Yabloko party - to become part of an organized political structure with a clear understanding of how to build a country and with which political system. The official entry into the political party, which categorically opposes the war and for free democratic Russia, is already a political action.
It is not enough to “live not by lies” and not to directly participate in the criminal actions of the current government. Each of us is responsible for our country and for the actions of the regime, even if power is usurped by criminal dictatorship. Every citizen of Russia is responsible for directly or indirectly creating the Kremlin in Ukraine, for killing people and for ruining life in the Donbass, for the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and for turning its inhabitants into citizens outside international law, for the victims of the testing of Russian weapons in Syria and for Russians who died in this near Middle East war.
Everyone’s civil duty is to do everything possible to terminate the criminal policy. The dictatorship is not an excuse for inaction in anticipation of better times.
However, without massive accession of the All -Russian anti -war movement, cannot be raised. I am sure that those who hate violence, wars, obscurantism and lies of millions. But only by uniting together, we will be able to influence what is happening. And the more we will be, the louder our voice will be, the more significant the influence will be.
No need to be afraid of party affiliation. There is no policy without this. The experience of the last seven lasts is enough to conclude about the inefficiency of the “non -political protest”, the shakiness of the non -partisan associations of citizens in interests.
Only personal participation can become a guarantee of positive development. The result will be determined by those who participate. And now, on the eve of the fracture, the most suitable time to enter politics.
The Yabloko party is a really existing political structure, which is already a quarter of a century.
Over the course of these 25 years, we have never deceived you, did not steal, did not chase at momentary popularity, did not exchange our principles for positions.
We always advocated building a free and fair society where the opinion and dignity of each person will be respected, where everyone is equal before the law, where people have access to first -class medicine, modern education and a pure environment. We fought with the gross mistakes of the economic reforms of the 1990s, opposed the war in Chechnya, the persecution of political opponents, the dispersal of independent media, all-pervasive corruption, fake elections and the usurpation of the authorities. All this is extremely important for an honest, open conversation with the country. And without such a conversation, nothing will work.
The political party, uniting hundreds of thousands of people with the general purpose of building free modern Russia, as well as with the principles of honesty, justice and respect for a person, can play a significant positive role in the period of the internal political crisis programmed by the Putin regime. Such a party will become an influential factor in politics, its voice will be heard, they will be considered it.
And if yesterday your neighbors fell under the rink of the system, then your turn will come tomorrow. This is how the mafia state and its repressive mechanism work. Almost the only chance to survive and defeat the system is an organized political resistance that begins with a mass association in the ranks of the opposition party.
Each of you yourself decides to what extent to participate in politics. But if nothing is undertaken now, then the authorities in the country will go into the hands of absolutely random people.
The struggle for the future has already begun.
Participate.
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