President to the grave board

In Algeria, in the capital and many other cities, on March 5, protests flared up against the possible re-election for the fifth term of the ruling 82-year-old President Abdelaziz Butfliki , which is probably in a coma in the clinic in Switzerland. There have been no such mass performances in the country since the Arab Spring of 2011. At the same time, the current Algerian regime traditionally, since the USSR, remains one of the most important allies of Moscow in the region and the largest buyer of Russian weapons worth $ 2.7 billion a year.

In the city of Algeria, on Tuesday, thousands of young people walked along the central streets, chanting anti -presidential slogans and demanding the transfer of elections scheduled for April 18. The townspeople who did not participate in the protest march watched the procession and applauded its participants. In other largest cities - Konstantin, Annabe and Proble - student protest manifestations also took place. From February 22, after the news that a seriously ill buteflik with the help of assistants put forward his candidacy for the fifth term, a wave of public discontent rose in Algeria. A total of hundreds of thousands of people participated in demonstrations. In addition, protest promotions are also held abroad, for example, in France, where a huge Algerian diaspora lives.

Currently, the president of Algeria is under treatment in Switzerland, where, according to his doctors, a regular medical examination is underway. However, many manifestants say that they do not understand who actually rules Algeria: after 2013, when Butefliki had a stroke, he does not appear in public and talks with great difficulty, moving in a wheelchair. According to some reports, now the president of Algeria is generally in an artificial coma.

On March 4, the opposition parties of Algeria called for the application of the Constitution, according to which the president’s post could be vacant if the state of health does not allow the head of state to fulfill his official duties. The manifestants on the streets and the leaders of the parliamentary opposition called for the elections for another six months, to write a draft of the new Constitution during this time, and until then to form an independent government.

Abdelaziz Butiflik in 2005

Abdelaziz Butflik, against the plans for the re-election of which the national protest is now sent, is the hero of the brutal war of Algeria for independence from France of 1954-1962 , one of the creators of the Algerian People’s Liberation Army (ANO), which received a military, ideological and political support from the Soviet Union. After the French departure from Algeria Butflik at the age of 26, he became the Minister of Foreign Affairs. From 1961 to 1981, he was a member of the Politburo of the Front of the National Liberation of Algeria (FNO) . Decades, until the beginning of the 90s and the collapse of the Soviet system, the FNO remained the ruling and only permitted party of the country. From 1983 to 1989, Butiflik, who previously turned out to be a defendant in a criminal case on charges of emigration emigration, was in exile, but then he returned to Algeria again. At the height of the Civil War in the country , in 1999, he was first elected president and managed to stop bloodshed, declaring an amnesty for some radical Islamists who fought against the central government. Since then, he has been re -elected three more times.

Algeria with Moscow, which, during his entire presidency, supported Abdelaziz Butflik, has been exploring the special relations of the back of the 50s of the last century, since the war for independence. In 1962, the Soviet Union was the first to establish diplomatic relations with Algeria. In recent years, it is Algeria that remains the second strategic direction of Russian exports to all African countries (after Egypt). Moreover, two-thirds of it traditionally, like decades ago, make up the weapons produced in Russia-almost only by them, from Kalashnikov’s machine guns to fighter-bombers and submarines, the entire army of Algeria was armed.

On the background of current protests in Algeria and the dangers conjugated with them for all of North Africa, as well as Russia and Europe, in an interview with Radio, the head of the Center for Arab and Islamic Research at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vasily Kuznetsov :

- Is the current wave of mass protests in Algeria directed specifically against the person of Abdelaziz Butfliki? Or is there a lot of reasons for what is happening and generally strange that all this has not happened until now?

- People do not protest against the personality of Butefliki, but against the desire of his environment to once again impose the same president for them, for the fifth time he "chosen" him. On the other hand, protests in Algeria generally happen quite regularly. Yes, now they are much larger than in recent years, but they have been before. Of course, among all segments of the population, fatigue has accumulated from this person. The main reason is the humiliation that the people feels. An attempt to re -choose a seriously ill person who does not appear before the public and generally resembles Leonid Brezhnev in his recent years, causes a completely natural reaction of society - it feels offended.

- The slogans have the protesters rather political or social?

-The slogans are now mostly political, despite the fact that the Algerian political system, in general, is quite difficult to organize. This is not a classic stupid dictatorial authoritarianism. A model of a corporate state was created in Algeria, with a functioning parliament and a multi -party system. Well, in some ways the same as in Russia. How much this system acts in reality is a separate controversial issue. But, nevertheless, she is there. Of course, now there are also slogans with the requirement of public changes associated with the topics of gender equality, with the change of generations of elites. And Islamist slogans sometimes appear.

Protests in the capital of Algeria. March 3, 2019

-Why was it in Algeria after the Civil War with the Islamists in the 90s that there were no noticeable changes, including during the Arab Spring? Although the protests happened there, and in 2011 the Algerians generally became one of the first to go out onto the streets. What is the secret of the popularity of Butefliki, this "president in a coma"?

- Buteflika is a person who has done a lot for Algeria, even all his opponents recognize this. This, if we compare, is not a former Tunisian ruler Zin al-Abidin Ben Ali , with his not very understandable achievements. Abdelaziz Butflik really stopped the civil war in Algeria. This is a person who converted the country's political system, sharply increasing its inclusiveness, complicating it. Generally speaking, if Buteflik left his post in 2012, he would have remained in the history of Algeria as the greatest president.

In 2011, really protests were partially suppressed by force, but partly power went to fairly large reforms

In 2011, the protests were really partially suppressed by force, but partially the authorities went to rather large reforms. Several packages of new laws were adopted, including freedom of speech, about parties, about female representation, about the freedom of NGOs. A state of emergency was canceled (of course, some elements of this situation were introduced into the main legislation, but these are subtleties). One way or another, in 2011, Buteflik still felt quite normal, and the system showed its ability to respond very flexibly and adequately to the needs of the population.

In 2013, Buteflik experienced a stroke, the state of his health sharply worsened. But the Algerian political system turned out to be quite developed to function in the absence of the notorious presidential “manual management”. If we look at all the elections in the last 10 years in the country, we will see the constant growth of a protest voting, which is generally not hidden by the authorities. In some areas it reached a turnout of not higher than 20 percent and up to 30 percent of the spoiled ballots, primarily in the Berber provinces. Dissatisfaction in society has been observed for a long time, but there was no that political power (it, however, is not there), which could catch this dissatisfaction and make it with its banner.

One of the secrets of the success of Butefliki is that, having carried out political reforms at the beginning of the 21st century, he created such a multi-party system in which parties of the entire spectrum are represented. Today, there are three moderate Islamic parties in parliament, and national Berber parties, liberal parties and even the Trotskyist party. In the political field there was no ideology that in the eyes of a population that does not support the current regime would not be discredited by interaction with this regime. Therefore, protests are very difficult to lead someone. Now they are not structured and are not headed by anyone.

- Why is Algerian still so closed from the outside world?

- Indeed, there is closeness, including economic. It seems to me that the government, and society is very afraid of the repetition of the 90s. Because, indeed, what was then, it was a tremendous trauma for Algerian society, and this injury was not obsolete and not forgotten. The active discovery of the country, the emergence of many tourists, some westernization, and so on can be represented by the factor in destabilization, not political, but social. This is such a distrust of external players, a painful experience, historical mythology associated with a colonial heritage and the memory of the fight against colonialists. Not in the sense that this is what was not, but there is a certain narrative of the country, which once survived a powerful anti-colonial upsurge. And Buteflik, by the way, is the last of the leaders who still have this legitimacy of the fighter for independence, nevertheless he directly took part in this war.

Protests near one of the universities of the capital of Algeria. March 4, 2019

- Algeria is one of the main importers of Russian goods throughout the continent, and most importantly, one of the world's largest buyers of Russian weapons. How can possible changes in Algeria hit Russian interests in North Africa?

- 80 percent of Algerian weapons - Russian production, and the share of Algeria in the total amount of the total exports of Russian weapons, according to official figures, takes 10 percent. Indeed, these are huge numbers. Algeria and Moscow have an “strategic partnership agreement”, which, however, has not yet been manifested in anything. Very unbalanced trade, 99% is Russian imports, very little is fascinated from Algeria to Russia. If there is a peaceful change in power in Algeria, in no way, no matter what Butflik has changed, I still do not see any threats to Russian contracts. Threats can be in case of long -term destabilization according to the Syrian or Libyan scenario.

80 percent of Algerian weapons - Russian production

-Still, everything is not very well in Algeria. In 2013, in In-Amensa , a completely monstrous terrorist attack occurred when jihadists captured several hundred foreign workers. Nearby very troubled Mauritania, Mali, Chad and, of course, Libya. If the power is replaced, then what are the development options and in what percentage ratio do you see? Chaos and war, like in Libya? Or will secular leaders be established, relatively young, oriented to the West? Or are the Islammian traditionalists oriented more to the Persian Gulf countries, primarily on Saudi Arabia?

-If we consider two main options-universal destabilization and chaos or a kind of peaceful political process with a change of power-more likelihood, I would say, a peaceful political process, somewhere around 85%. So far, the authorities are reacting to protests very moderately. Having survived the experience, again, the 90s, the Algerian system has learned flexibility. In Libya, in principle, there were no socio-political institutions, and in Algeria there are these institutions. If we compare with Syria where such institutions were, I note that in Algeria the political regime to the calls of society is now reacting much more adequately and faster than in Damascus. Yes, there are mass protests, but in principle, this is a normal situation for any normal country. Mass protests are not only in totalitarian countries.

If we are not talking about terrorists, but about Islamist political movements, then, judging by the last election, they lost the trust of a very significant part of the population. The events of recent years in the region have played against these movements. In fact, no one wants violence, and there are no examples of countries today where the coming to the power of Islamist parties would lead to accelerated development or prosperity. There is terrorist activity in the south of the country, primarily in sparsely populated sugar areas. It is mainly connected not with the struggle for Algeria, not with an attempt to distinguish between power there, but with the fact that Transissakhara criminal networks and Transissacchar jihadist movements began the merger from the mid-2000s. This is the struggle for trade routes. And the kidnepping, which are also engaged in jihadists in the deepest regions of Algeria in the south, is also mainly connected with the desire to achieve any cruel idealistic goals, but, as a rule, comes down to the desire to receive money, ransom. Of course, the jihadists have a failure in Algeria in the 90s and, of course, in the event of a negative development of the situation in this country, they will strive for revenge.

- The main fear of everything very close to Algeria Europe is now that in North Africa another “black hole” is formed through which the stream of illegal migrants, as well as members of these transjihadic, as you called them, is pouring. With Libya, and partly with Tunisia and Morocco, it happened. How inevitable is it in Algeria in the event of some further turbulence?

- At the moment, the Algerian Armed Forces are fully controlled by their safety, including the coast. Please note that in the Islamic State terrorist group, for example, among all foreign militants from other Arab states there were the most Tunisians, and the least Algerians! One of the explanations is again the legacy of the 90s. Because for a guy from some simple suburbs of Tunisia, very often the departure to ISIS was not connected with the desire to kill the infidels, but with the desire to find the everyday-social justice that he could not find in his homeland. And very often - with a misunderstanding of what threats this promises. And for Algeria, who survived this experience, there were no misunderstanding of threats. Algerian society knows well what jihadists are, and knows well what terrorists are. The second important factor, which must not be forgotten, is the effectiveness of the Algerian special services that actively work so that no one goes anywhere. In other countries, this work of special services is often reduced to the idea that if potential militants leave, then thank God, less dangers within the country. In Algeria, they work wrong.