Alexey Roshchin: "senseless elections"

"The presidential election in Ukraine is like an interesting entertainment for an observer from Russia, but it is depressing that there is no sense in them. Yes - unlike Russian underlines last year, Ukrainians have a certain unpredictability and intrigue, the set of applicants for a high position - as much as 44 people; but this is even more sorry for the fact that they will not choose in Ukraine, whoever will not be chosen. The main question has been resolved - the elections do not bring the elections to the solution of this issue, and if so, it is not clear - why are they needed? " - writes a social psychologist in the "Live Journal" .

"Crimea was and remains a problem for both of our countries. I would say that this is such a sick tooth that miraculously nipes in the mouth of both Ukraine and Russia at the same time. This is such a" clue "for centuries; if nothing is done, Crimea will always poison with its vague status any attempts to converge and cooperation between the two largest Slavic states.

Why Crimea (in the present form) is a toxic ballast for Russia, it is obvious: no one recognized its "accession" (even vassal Belarus!); It is precisely because of the Crimea of ​​Russia that the reputation of the aggressor country, even Russian corporations and banks are afraid to enter the Crimea due to fear of falling under sanctions, all of Russia itself, under the pretext of Crimea, is doomed under the eternal sanctions from the West, and most importantly, the problem of Crimea also makes Russia spend the abyss of resources and reputation of the reputation of a smoldering conflict in the Donbass.

It is slightly less clear, but it is also obvious that the unresolved problem of Crimea is also burdened by Ukraine - since it is clear that until the issue with the Crimea is resolved to the mutual satisfaction of the parties, all supporters of the world and interaction with the Russian Federation will be in Ukraine in the minority and in a vulnerable position. This is despite the fact that cooperation with Russia, if you distract from grievances and hysteria, Ukraine is beneficial, useful, and convenient.

Someone will say that, they say, it’s okay, we must wait, and then, they say, the problem of Crimea will be solved by itself. Such people need to be disappointed - no prerequisites for the fact that time heals is not observed on the horizon. In fact - what should happen so that the problem of Crimea is resolved? Is it necessary that the "Russian party" won in Ukraine? But this will not help: no, even the most pro -Russian and pro -Russian power in Ukraine can never recognize the annexation - this will be humiliating, complete loss of face for Ukrainians and, therefore, political suicide.

What else to wait - maybe that "Ukraine will collapse"? Like under the weight of the most severe economic and political difficulties? And these are also empty dreams: over 5 years we could make sure that the resource of survival in Ukraine was quite high, and, as we see, Ukraine is not in the airless space and not alone with the Russian Federation - near the EU and the IMF, near the United States, and they will definitely not let Ukraine simply disappear. At one time, the old man Brzezinsky, a former Secretary of State in the 70s and a prominent religious council, dreamed aloud that "if Russia had managed to tear Ukraine, Russia would forever cease to be important as a world power." Today it was perfectly succeeded, and the successors of Brzezinsky in the leadership of Western countries are hardly so distracted and forgetful that it will allow Ukraine to weaken so much as to just fall into the arms of a Russian bear again.

Therefore, there is nothing to wait for - the path situation with the Crimea itself will not be resolved. This sick tooth will only be more and more every year - and there is little comfort that this tooth will be at the same time both in our country and Ukraine. So-we are doomed to have Ukraine in enemies and forever carry the stigma "aggressor" on the forehead, depicting international parias, forced to yak only with the same lubricants like Iran, Syria, North Korea and Venezuela?

With a successful "reunion", Russia tactically won, but strategically lost. And this error must be corrected. But how? To hope that power will change in Russia, and, say, the new President of Navalny will solemnly return the Crimea to Ukraine on a saucer with a blue bucket? This fantasy of domestic “liberals” has no chance of implementing exactly for the same reason why no new president of Ukraine can agree to renounce from Crimea: it will also be political suicide. There is too much invested in the Crimea (one bridge is worth it!) So that even in the future of the Russian Federation it could simply return it.

What remains? It turns out a dead end? Both of our countries will now balance on the verge of military confrontation? Of course, such a suspended state is beneficial to those who are afraid of the “revival of imperial ambitions” by Russia and Russians.

A jerk is needed to get out of the artificially created impasse. A real breakthrough idea. And, since the problem is difficult, it will not work to solve it simply and with little blood. Although there is a way out.

To resolve the situation for Crimea, Russia must offer something really valuable. The not miserable 15 billion dollars that Putin hoped to buy with the giblets of greedy Yanukovych (and 3 billion of which, one must understand, disappeared without a trace, both for Ukraine and Russia). You won’t get off with a dozen or two Lardov here.

Sooner or later, the former (and, I hope, future) brothers will have to offer Gazprom. This is the best that Russia has, and the crests, as we know, were offended from the very beginning of the 90s that oil and gas, which was explored and mined together, went to the “for some reason” of one Russia. Well, injustice will have to be eliminated. Ukraine can be proposed for Crimea half of the Gazprom State Confluence - that is, a blocking package of 25%+1 promotion. And if they do not agree, it may also be necessary to add to Rosneft shares.

This is the only way to move from confrontation (in fact no one needs) to interaction. Let Ukraine receive these blocking packages and actively affect the policy of our mining monsters - it will not be worse from this. And in return we will settled the issue with the Crimea and, possibly, Donbass.

Of course, the idea is extremely unexpected and bold. Nobody will definitely perceive it at once - the intensity of mutual distrust and even hatred today is too great. And here we return to where we started - to the Ukrainian elections. It would be much better if this topic would have been officially thrown by Russia to this election into the Ukrainian information space. So that first, candidates would be forced to position in relation to such "normalization", and then so that the Ukrainians, voting, thereby could express their attitude to this idea.

This is grain - and we would look how it would be sprouted. Although, with the current dominance of the Starper, at the head of the Russian Federation to count on really breakthrough ideas, of course, is stupid. The elders, as always happened, will wait - while Russia, deprived of prospects, will be slowly, but inevitably plunge into another stagnation and isolation. "