"Putin's outcome"

About the latest emigration and "beautiful Siberia of the Future"

Some time ago, a report on modern emigration from Russia was presented in Washington in the Atlantic Council. This is the fifth wave of emigration over the past hundred years (and if you consider pre -revolutionary Jewish emigration, then even the sixth). It is little noticeable against the general background of global migrations, lost among other, more noticeable migration flows.

This report is named in biblis: “Putin's outcome”, its authors are John Herbst and Sergey Erofeev. You can read it here . In the preface, one of its co -authors is asked by a simple but important question from the category of "children": why has such a rich and developed country as Russia have not yet turned into one of the most important economies in the world?

He writes: "The key to economic success in the information era is creative abilities, or human capital ... The best hackers of the world live in modern Russia. Why do these so capable people do not create breakthrough technologies and do not build companies that would win world technological competition?" "

Answer: Because those who could do this have left. "We believe that one factor turned out to be a key: an outflow of people capable of creativity." The economy is developed by people who want and can (learned from their painful experience) to do this. When there are few such people, because they left, development actually becomes impossible. And that means there are indispensable people. Those who left Russia are developing modern economics, science, society already in other countries around the world.

But what do those who have left it relatively recently think of Russia? In the report, their number is approximately estimated at two million people. The authors of the report explored and interviewed the Putin Wave migrants (only 400 people) in the four largest (and most expensive) cities of the world in Los Angeles, New York, Berlin and London. These former Russians form a special group even among other migrants. They, as a rule, have a good higher education (this is emphasized in the report) - 43% of master or candidate (PH.D.), doctoral diplomas.

The stereotypical image of the meaningless and flawed vegetation of emigrants from Russia, created by the films "Running", "On Deribasovskaya, good weather", and the songs of Mikhail Shufutinsky, have long and inevitably outdated. It is still reproduced by Russian pro -government media, but this is only a rough caricature

These are professionally held people. They left Russia not by fugitives or seekers of good luck. In the report, they are represented by people who deliberately left Russia in search of creative freedom and new opportunities. This is not a "sausage emigration", as they said in the 1990s. (Although in another recent study , the desire to improve living conditions is still represented as the most important factor in emigration.) These people often emphasize in the interview that their lives were quite prosperous in Russia. On the contrary, this leaving abroad meant difficulties, new challenges, problems. But these difficulties were overcome.

The most important reason for departure they call the "General Political Climate" (40%) and a lack of political and economic freedom (33%and 32%). 24% of respondents left Russia to continue their studies - and then they did not return.

The word "former" to many of them applies with reservations. By this, modern (e) migration is generally different from the previous "waves". Thanks to the Internet, lightness and speed of international trips, constant communication, many of them are involved in what is happening in Russia (here the journalistic stamp "in the historical homeland" is inappropriate). They do not just monitor events, they participate in them: from reposts of relevant news and comments on social networks to charitable donations and financing of various projects and until the creation of networks for real forced migrants - political, religious or gender refugees. Unfortunately, Russia is now a country from which someone is forced to escape. And in new countries, fugitives every year are easier to find groups and organizations that will help you start life in a new place. And they invest their knowledge, skills and energy already in the development of these new places.

The report emphasizes the growth of interest in Russia from the “fifth wave” migrants in comparison with those who left before. 57% of respondents left Russia after 2012, and their political sympathies - predictably on the side of the so -called "opposition forces". To the question of which side they are ready to support, 2% reply that Putin and his administration (as in the text of the report), 52% - opposition.

This "fifth wave". Russians "in Russia" and former Russians "abroad" (not all, of course) - now it is one large system with huge and diverse internal connections. We can say that emigration "in the old" sense of the word almost does not exist. However, these people of the “fifth wave” of emigration with their professionalism, experience, capital and connections still live and do their own business not in Russia. Of the respondents, almost no one seriously thinks about the possibility of returning to Russia: only 12% answered this question positively. Of these, only 5%are ready to return to Russia in the case of improving the economic, but not political situation, and in the case of improving the political, but not economic situation - 13%. "Do not know" - 13% and 17%, respectively. Thinking about the possibility of returning a minority, but it is.

The stereotypical image of the meaningless and flawed vegetation of emigrants from Russia, created by the films "Running", "On Deribasovskaya, good weather", and the songs of Mikhail Shufutinsky, have long and inevitably outdated. It is still reproduced by Russian pro -government media, but this is only a rough caricature.

Migrants of the Fifth Wave, not all, but those who are talking about in this report are, first of all, confident professionals of their business. Almost every or each of them has its own business, high -quality university courses, books and articles, software products and so on. Experience. These are experienced people. All of them could do the same in Russia itself. Some of them are Siberians.

At the presentation of this report in the very center of Washington, one of the speakers said, as if addressing all the inhabitants of the American capital at once: thank you for preparing for us, for the "beautiful Russia of the future", shots! We will be so needed later! ..

Will they be needed? Here is a question that concerns all Russians, including Siberians. This is a strategic question. Suppose that “beautiful Russia of the future” will come, which we so want - and those who have left Siberia, and those who live in it. Those who went abroad from Siberia may return among these 13%. For what? What can Siberia offer to call them? If you think about the future of Siberia, and you need to think about it, then the question of those who can return is the most important question. This is a question about the place of "beautiful Siberia of the Future" in the global world. Sentimental considerations, love for the native land help people make decisions, but above all - activity. If these experienced people will be needed for the native land, their native land can call them. But call for some reason.

“Return”, of course, does not necessarily mean physically moving, a variety of “return” options are possible. Returning to Siberia in the global world means to actively participate in what is happening in Siberia. But - in what activity? They will return to do what? What will be attractive to Siberia for those who can choose a place and a country for life and work? This is the question so the question! ..

Mikhail Germans - philosopher

The "Opinion" expressed in the heading of the point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial office