Translated material
Nazarbayev left the post. Or did not leave?
What does such an unexpected decision of the Kazakh leader mean? About this - an expert on the countries of Central Asia Arkady Dubnov
NT: The first president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev announced the voluntary reservation of the powers of the head of state. He stated this live during the appeal to the people of Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev led the country since 1989. The temporarily acting president, in accordance with the Constitution of Kazakhstan, will be the chairman of the Senate of the Parliament Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev. Nazarbayev himself retains the provision of the head of the Security Council of Kazakhstan, the chairman of the ruling party Nur Otan and the title of Elbasy, the leader of the nation.
Arkady Dubnov: Nazarbayev’s departure is already compared with a similar act of Boris Yeltsin (at the end of December 1999), but they are only united by the fact that they are both of the cohorts of former members of the Politburo. But Yeltsin was exhausted by the mid-1990s, maybe even in 1993 after a civil war in Moscow. And Nazarbayev is still mobile, capable, beautiful and loved by women. He goes into the state of the “Supreme Referee”, which he will be as chairman of the country's security council, with constitutional powers formalized by law and exceeding the powers of the president. This is a very wise attempt to translate the regime of authoritarian board into a transitional state of electoral democracy of a special eastern type.
Undoubtedly, some kind of political revival will occur, and although in the coming years nothing will change fundamentally, the discovery of the possibility of competitive elections in itself, even if only close and entrusted to Nazarbayev, members of his areopaga are already competing-some move forward. In the east, moving quickly is to risk heavy explosive cataclysms, up to the bloody feuds.
Nazarbayev returned Tokayev to the country several years ago and introduced in the Senate, answering calls to show what the transition appearance of the authorities could be. And Nazarbayev made it clear that the second person in the state is the successor. So everything turns out very competently
This is the same step that was prepared especially actively after the change of power in Uzbekistan. It all ended quite happily there, but it was difficult to predict this from the very beginning. Islam Karimov died suddenly, and did not leave a clear scenario of the transition. But the safety mechanisms provided by the security service worked, and everything went smoothly.
Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev is a very famous, experienced and close to Nazarbayev political old-timer. He is 13 years younger than Nazarbayev. Tokaev was the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chairman of the Senate. From the last post, he moves, in accordance with the Constitution, to the post of acting president. At one time, he was even Deputy Secretary General of the UN in Geneva. From there, Nazarbayev returned him to the country a few years ago and introduced him to the Senate, answering calls to show what the transition of power could be. And Nazarbayev made it clear that the second person in the state is the successor. So everything turns out very competently.
It is possible that the nephew of Nazarbayev Samat Abish or his daughter Darig Nazarbayev will participate in the struggle for power. All of them are not “snowdrops” who suddenly appeared on the political stage of the country. At one point or another, depending on the political situation, different people may be at the “low start” in the struggle for power. This is rather a medium -term perspective than the nearest events. And right now everything will be neat and calm. Elections will be held, there may be early, and maybe urgent ones, which should be next year. The same Tokaev, about a year ago, mentioned, being abroad, which, in his opinion, Nazarbayev would not take part in the 2020 elections, which stunned the audience. Then he even tried to disavow the statement, saying that this was his personal opinion. But this became a signal that says that such a scenario exists.
I am more than sure that Nursultan Nazarbayev will arrive on April 12 to the summit of the five countries of Central Asia, where he will already be as a pure “national leader”, Elbasy, and bring his president with him
Nazarbayev is a very wise old man who least of all would like to start in the Kremlin, frightened by the sharp roll of Astana from Moscow. This will not happen, and it is just such a person as Tokaev that can guarantee the preservation of the previous course. But Astana is already today the “independent” subject of international law, possibly the only one kind of in the post -Soviet space that may afford to disagree with Moscow and not be hostage of its policy, which made the Kremlin an outcast in an international field. Kazakhstan does not want to become a victim of sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of the Crimean and East Ukrainian companies, and defiantly does not allow associations of his policy with this course of Moscow. So already today, under Nazarbayev, Moscow does not hide its concern about the behavior of Astana.
But stronger roll is not expected. Nazarbayev will still remain the main pendant of politics in Kazakhstan. He will oversee foreign policy. I am more than sure that Nazarbayev will come to the summit of the five countries of Central Asia on April 12, where he will already be as a pure “national leader”, Elbasy, and bring his president with him. But so far he himself remains the current leader of the country.
Collage: Alexey Baranov