On March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev announced his resignation from the post of president of Kazakhstan, which he had held since 1991. However, he will remain chairman of the republic's Security Council, chairman of the ruling Nur Otan party and a member of the Constitutional Council. His longtime ally, Senate Speaker Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, became president until new elections will be held in 2020.

Russian political scientists interviewed by Vedomosti believe that the scenario chosen by Nazarbayev for a smooth transfer of power resembles the path along which in the mid-80s. went to China Deng Xiaoping. But in Russia this experience is unlikely to be applicable.

Arkady Dubnov, political scientist:

Nazarbayev steps down as president. But he does not resign from the post of national leader; he remains with the title of “Elbasy,” that is, leader of the nation. And most importantly, he remains the chairman of the Security Council of Kazakhstan, whose powers were not so long ago legislated to such an extent that they exceed the powers of the president. Therefore, the comparison with Deng Xiaoping in China is appropriate. Nazarbayev remains the supreme demiurge, referee, creator and maintainer of Kazakhstan. He will control the political process in the country as long as he is capable and as long as he is alive.

Nazarbayev is acting quite wisely. He does this to prevent any obstruction that might happen when he is gone. And such risks always exist. This script is very clever. He will preserve the interests of his people, his course. Nazarbayev made Kazakhstan a subject of international law. He will maintain and control his inheritance.

For something like this to happen in Russia, you need to have a slightly different idea of yourself in the world. Our leader sees himself somewhere in the sky, he is a mission man. A huge number of interests and clans in Russia are focused on Putin. If such a scenario is realized in Russia, then the next morning after he announces it, a riot will begin. Russia is a country with a large number of influential groups that surround the president; they will enter into a battle for power as soon as it becomes known that he is ready to leave. There are not so many clans in Kazakhstan, they are all tamed, none of them will lose anything if they obey Nazarbayev. Kazakhstan is a large country, but not so rich in financial and industrial groups.

Alexey Makarkin, first vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies:

This is the same model that Deng Xiaoping had in China, only with nuances. The difference is that in China there was and is such a stronghold as the Communist Party. And Deng Xiaoping burned out everything that weakened the party with a hot iron, including the two general secretaries, whom he considered too weak. Nazarbayev does not have this - he has his own political party, an analogue of United Russia, but it, naturally, is not as rooted as the Chinese Communist Party. Nazarbayev in this case gets out of the situation this way: he will not only be the chairman of the Security Council, but he also has the status of the leader of the nation.

Nazarbayev has done a lot of work in recent years to deconcentrate power. He strengthened the role of parliament so that the office of the president was not so dominant. He selected a successor to [Senate Chairman] Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has been with him for many years. Apparently, members of Nazarbayev’s family will play a role in the oligarchy; he has active nephews. And Tokayev is a cautious, diplomat, a person of conservative views, he will not seriously change anything. And Nazarbayev remains the founding father in this scheme. Nazarbayev will be an arbiter between the president, parliament, government, and elite groups. Whether this will work out will depend on how long he will be able to act, based on the constitutional provisions that enshrine his role.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”:

Nazarbayev spent a long time gathering and preparing. In such political systems, such decisions are not made spontaneously, especially since there was no force majeure or crisis.

This is quite natural, Nazarbayev has been in power for a very long time, he understands perfectly well that transit is necessary, but it must be made as manageable as possible. This means that only behind-the-scenes preparatory measures are not enough: it is necessary at some point to begin this very transfer of power in order to adapt the system to the fact that it will have a different head. Apparently, that's what he started doing.

I think that regardless of whether Tokayev is the final choice or the acting one, this is not so important and fundamental. And the question that is significant for him is that some kind of movement is beginning towards moving away from a purely personalized system, in which the head is at the same time a source of legitimacy. In these kinds of models, this is the only option: you start to leave, leaving the levers of control behind you, but gradually moving away from practical management.

Judging by what is being said, immediate early elections are not expected and Tokayev will serve until the next elections, that is, until 2020. This will be a transition period. And in two years, no one knows what will happen: either Tokayev will continue his full-fledged activities, or someone else. I think this is an extremely important precedent thing, more precedent and important than the departure of Boris Yeltsin in 1999. This is an experience that no one has had yet. When the President of Turkmenistan or the President of Uzbekistan died, it was different - there simply was no more person there and an urgent replacement was needed. And here is the first case of a prepared smooth transit. Whether it succeeds or fails is very important, and, of course, it is extremely interesting, fundamental and instructive for Russia. Because our model is not entirely Kazakh, but comparable and with the same promising problems.

Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council:

We don’t know much yet, but if we assume that this decision is voluntary, made in sound mind and sober memory, then we can also assume that this step was prepared and carefully planned. We are talking about an attempt to streamline and build the most consistent political transit of power.

Of course, in such transits, especially when we are talking about a leader who has been in power for almost three decades, risks cannot be ruled out. But given that Nazarbayev retains certain powers and will continue to control the situation, this is an attempt to make transit as less risky as possible. It is difficult to say how successful this will be: after all, we are talking about a leader who actually created this country, and without him various contradictions - clan, regional, ethnic - will probably come to the surface. However, I think this is a justified and rational step.

Alexander Chumichev / TASS On Tuesday, March 19, the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Na... M. Budnevich and A. Ustinenko / TASS In 1984, Nazarbayev was appointed Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Kazakh S... Boris Babanov / RIA Novosti 1990 The Parliament of Kazakhstan introduced the post of President of the Republic and elected... Dmitry Sokolov / TASS In 1991, Nazarbayev participated in negotiations on the conclusion of the Union Treaty... Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters 2001 Nazarbayev and the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov on a ski slope.. Sergey Zhukov / TASS Nazarbayev has developed excellent relations with Russian President Vladimir P... Alexei Druzhinin / RIA Novosti / AP Nazarbayev was one of the initiators of the creation of the Customs Union with the participation of Ro... RIA Novosti / AP 2008 Nazarbayev and then moment Russian President Dmitry Medvedev conducting... TASS The Constitution of Kazakhstan limits the time the president can stay in power for two... Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters Rally for Nazarbayev's resignation. 2007, Kazakhstan Christophe Simon / AP 2009 Nazarbayev and Pope Benedict XVI Getty Images Nazarbayev at the parade in honor of the 70th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.... Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters A monument was erected in Nazarbayev’s homeland in his honor. Alma-Ata, 2012. Getty Images 2015. Nazarbayev during a visit to England. Buckingham Palace Reuters 2016 Nazarbayev dances at the celebration in honor of National Unity Day Halil Sagirkaya / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images Nazarbayev and Turkish President Recep Erdogan, September 2018 Evan Vucci / AP Nazarbayev and US President Donald Trump, January 2018 akorda .ru In 2010, the Parliament of Kazakhstan adopted a constitutional law on vesting...

Why Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned