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Air of freedom in Kazakhstan was enough for less than a day

The day after the resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev, in honor of him, he was renamed the capital of Kazakhstan (formerly Astana). At the same time, the fact of the general approval of this measure is amazing, but the fact that the two chambers of the parliament needed 18 minutes to change the constitution, of which the appropriate part occupied the applause. The inhabitants of Astana have already come up with an unofficial name - “Nursultan”.

In principle, there is nothing surprising in the fact that it was the acting that the acting officially was officially squeezed. President Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev. A few months ago, he wrote an article about Nazarbayev under the original name “Triumph of Will” in the Liter newspaper. And against the background of the rest of the privileges to Nazarbayev, the renaming of the city does not look so odious. Throughout the country, it was proposed to rename central streets in his honor, and even before the official order, six large cities plus Almaty did it - in the former capital they took care of everything a year ago.

A funny story came out with the city of Aktobe: there the central avenue is named after Abulhair Khan, and for the Kazakhs it is a holy name.

But the deputies not in vain eat their bread: they divided the avenue in half, and the best part was given to the most worthy representative of the current government.

Indings, however, was so strong that the republican onomastic commission urgently played back and blocked this undertaking, ordering to find “other streets” for the perpetuating of the Nazarbayev.

Even the former president became an honorary senator, almost all monetary allowance and maintenance were preserved behind him, his portraits cannot be removed from state institutions, and the family retained complete immunity. And most importantly: the speaker of the Senate, that is, the second person in power, was the eldest daughter of the departed President Darig Nazarbayev. For her, this is a significant increase: now, if Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev follow the example of the owner and will resign, it is Dariga Nursultanovna who will sit in the presidential chair.

But this design is obvious only at first glance. “It must be assumed that Tokaev is a man without ambitions who devotedly serves the owner and is ready to sacrifice himself, giving way to Dariga and conducting unpopular reforms,” says former chairman of the State Committee for Politics, politician Peter Sobik. - It turns out that for five and a half years he sat in the decisive position of the chairman of the Senate just so that in six months to give in to the presidential place? As far as I know Tokayev, this is not so. ” Now he looks like an absolute loyalist, and his first step seemed to confirm his first step. “There is evil, there is an inevitable evil, but there is a necessary evil. For Tokayev, renaming is the necessary evil, ”says political scientist Aidos Sarym. “Further - the war will show the war.”

In other words, a few months later Tokaev will resume the taste of the supreme power in full, and the jacket of the “technical president” will become small for him.

This will be especially noticeable at the moment when the new head of state will have to make the most sensitive decision for the economy, and this will happen very soon. Peter Suyk explains that the issue of saving the banking system will be key: “Now they dispersed the national fund, from which they will give money to a social station, but the question is what banks to spend and belong to the clans.” In this sense, Tokayev’s powers become nodular, and conflicts on this basis with the controlled Nazarbayev Security Council and parliament are almost inevitable.

The appointment of Dariga Nazarbayeva in the Senate looks like a insured and an option for the future, not in 2020, and Tokaev looks right now a more prepared and convenient option (but again, only for now). Although her chances and Tokayev’s chances for the future presidential post do not look 100 %. “The structure of society has changed, and it is obvious that for electoral success, just one surname is not enough,” says Idos Sarym. “Moreover, Nazarbayev himself carries a large raid of“ bronze ”and fatigue, so it’s not a fact that if he indicates someone or appoints someone, this will add points to a person.” Given that in recent months, representatives of non -systemic parties suddenly came out of hibernation, everyone smells blood. Everything except system parties.

That is why Nazarbayev retained the complete influence of what was happening in the country.

His position in the Security Council implies control over “national security”, although any question of the internal agenda is suitable for this; All security forces are subordinate to him who can continue to block the Internet (and already block), detain too zealous dissatisfied (already delay) and at any time declare the emergency mode and almost martial law. The instructions of the Chairman of the Security Council at the same time seem to be “advisory”, but everyone understands how it will work. The main question is how long.

Experts agree that there was an option to wait calmly began the election campaign, but this is according to the Constitution - already in December 2020. “It is clear that this is not a document that they pray here, but since they decided to hurry up, it means there is a reason,” Pyotr Sobik hints at the fact that recently they have been talking a lot about Nazarbayev’s health. The departure to the position of the overseer will allow you to relax more and avoid critical arrows in your address, but will create official dual power in the country. And the main task of Nazarbayev is right now - to have time to finish the transit of the authorities, who, in the end, had to give all the reins of government. And the renaming of the capital and streets is a pleasant bonus before the start of the last battle.