Igor Yakovenko: "Putin's outcome"

“A society under authoritarian regime, in front of the eyes of totalitarianism, is a“ black box ”, the internal state of which is difficult to observe. Attempts to use in Russia as a political thermometer VTsIOM polls or the elections surprise their naivety. During the“ Electoral Elections ”, some necessary people consider the product that other necessary people have laid in the heads of Russians through a TV,” - writes Columnist "Daily Journal."

The “contents of the“ black box ”manifests itself during the explosion or in the case of great movements of human masses. That is, in the form of emigration and emigration moods ... According to the sociological service of Gallup, every fifth Russian would like to emigrate from Russia if he had such an opportunity. Gallup sociologists have been conducting such polls in Russia for more than 10 years and argue that the numbers above are a record. In 2014, potential emigrants were 7%, in 2016 - 9%, now - 20%.

The largest number of people who want to emigrate are among young people: among Russians aged 15-29, they would like to leave 44%. ”

"This is the sixth wave of emigration from Russia since the beginning of the last century. The Putin emigration, the Putin’s outcome, is second only to the" white emigration "of the 1918-1922 and the wave of the 90s, when the iron curtain collapsed after the collapse of the USSR.

The idea of ​​this wave of Putin's emigration gives a survey of Russian emigrants conducted by the Atlantic Council of the United States, the authors John Hearbst and Sergey Erofeev. Researchers interviewed 400 emigrants living in the USA, Great Britain and Germany.

The study of the Atlantic Council showed that the Putin's outcome is largely caused by rejection, which in people causes the Putin regime. As six main reasons for leaving, 40% called the total political atmosphere, 33% - the lack of political freedoms, 32% - the total economic situation, the lack of economic prospects, 29% - persecution, violation of human rights, 26% - professional reasons, education, and receiving a diploma.

The Putin’s outcome is distinguished by politicization and opposition: 58% of the emigrant surveyed said that they earned enough in Russia to “live comfortably”, more than two thirds negatively evaluate Putin’s activity, believing that as a result of his reign, life in Russia has become worse.

That is, the Putin's outcome is a flight not so much from poverty as from lack of freedom. Those for whom freedom is a production necessity are leaving: scientists, programmers, people of creative professions. Putin's outcome is a massive brain leak.

Today, when many put the ear to the ground, trying to hear the tread of future changes, it is important to take into account the above features of the Putin's outcome. The window of opportunities will probably open, and this will happen, as always, suddenly. The question is whether at that moment there is a political entity in Russia that can offer the country something sensible, and most importantly-whether by this time there will be a critical mass of people who can hear and understand this in the country ... "