There would be oil, and there will be a Haftar

Russian mercenaries in Libya stretched closer to deposits

In Libya, a new aggravation of the political situation: the commander of the National Army Caliph Haftar began an attack on Tripoli, the capital of the country in which the government of national unity supported by the world community is based. The offensive coincided with the beginning of the next round of peace negotiations under the auspices of the UN. Representatives of the organization called for avoiding a military clash.

Russia did not claim to support any of the parties, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also officially opposes the military conflict. However, a month ago, information appeared in the media that the “Wagner PMC” Evgeny Prigozhin supplies the army of Haftar artillery, tanks and ammunition.

Experts told Novye about the alignment of forces in this political conflict and what benefits the owners of the Wagner PMC can be extracted from cooperation with Haftar.

Alexey Malashenko

Orientalist, Arabist, Head of Scientific Research of the Institute "Dialogue of Civilizations"

-Libya has always been split into three parts, and now more than ever split, but so far for two and a half: the east (Benghazi and Tobruk), the north-west (Tripoli) and the south, where it is not clear yet what is happening. The confrontation looks like this: on the one hand - Tripoli, that is, the government of national unity, and on the other, Benghazi and Tobruk, where the national parliament and the National Army is sitting under the leadership of Field Marshal Caliph Haftar.

The whole question is, will they agree or will fight to the victorious end? If you look at the January - February of this year, then in general, equality was observed between the parties. Haftar himself was ready for negotiations. A certain national conference was planned, where, in theory, the parties had to come to a consensus, but Haftar at some point felt strong. His army is really well organized, very well armed, including Russian weapons. He has combat experience, he won several important victories over terrorists and extremists. And a couple of weeks ago he felt that the time had come to capture Tripoli with a storm and not agree with Saraj ( Fazi Mustafa al-Saraj - Prime Minister of the Government. - Ed.) .

Haftar is so confident in themselves that his people have already warned local residents so that they were not afraid of anything, sit home, and he will simply deal with opponents.

Judging by the news, he is already fighting at the airport, that is, he actually entered Tripoli. Who will resist him? Yes, there are forces that are true to the government (Sarraju), but there are informal military units. If people scatter (including individual groups, which are called radical, extremist), then Haftar, of course, will take the city. It seems that today Field Marshal has very strong positions.

Russia, of course, supports Haftar in this conflict. Despite the 20 years spent in America, he knows the Russian language, he has excellent connections, good relations with Shoigu personally, we give him weapons, including S-300 complexes. As for Sarraja, he is closer to Europe and the USA. But there is a moment: Russia constantly emphasized the need for negotiations. Moscow has the position of Prokhaftarovskaya, but at the same time dual. Because if Haftar suddenly loses (this is Libya - everything is possible there), Russia will have problems. Moscow will not express the final tough opinion, unless, of course, Haftar does not capture everything in the near future.

But even if he appoints himself to anyone (at least the president, at least the prime minister, at least the prophet), Libya is clearly divided into three parts, and he must understand this. The first is Tripoli, the second is Bengaz, Tobruk, the third is the south. And the south is sugar. Who is not there ... The Haftar will have to be responsible for this part of the country, and there the border is near the Chad and Niger-there are already full of representatives of the Islamic State and the remnants of Al-Qaeda (terrorist organizations prohibited in Russia) . It will win - it will be very great obligations.

The geopolitical interest of Russia here is a demonstration of the flag: "We are not only in Syria, we are also there."

Moreover, during the time of Gaddafi, when military parades were held, our sergeants sat in tanks and showed flags. See what is happening in Algeria. Where did the new Prime Minister go first? To Moscow. With a favorable combination of circumstances - a good relationship with Algeria, Haftar comes to power in Libya, Russia also in Syria, and this already looks quite serious. And important - oil. If it turns out, Russian business can come to Libya, especially since we have experience with the Libyans since the 69th year.

Mikhail Krutikhin

Partner of the Consulting Agency Rusenergy

-It is likely that individual Russian companies could have been profitable to work and make something to earn in Libya. Such large companies as, for example, Rosneft could count on the share of oil production and access to new markets.

Oil production in Libya was reduced immediately after the troubles began, but recently changes in the amount of production have not been outlined, because the main oil producing places and terminals for the sending of oil are under the control of the Haftar, and specifically in these places the fighting is not underway. But, if in general, changes in the volume of Libyan oil production are very slightly affected by the market. In such a simple circumstance that American shale oil is very light and almost completely replaces the loss of Libyan oil from the market. In quality, it is about the same. There is no shortage of this oil, and Libyan events do not affect prices.