Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced in a televised address on Tuesday that he had decided to hold early presidential elections on June 9 / Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced in a televised address on Tuesday that he had decided to hold early presidential elections on June 9. Tokayev said the decision had been agreed upon with Kazakhstan’s first president and leader of the nation (Elbasy) Nursultan Nazarbayev and was “necessary to remove any uncertainty.” Tokayev did not say whether he himself would run. When Nazarbayev announced his resignation on March 19, the next election was expected to be held a year later, in the spring of 2020, when the five-year term to which Nazarbayev was elected in April 2015 would expire.

According to the constitution of Kazakhstan, the post of president in the event of his resignation is filled by the chairman of the senate (upper house of parliament). This position was occupied by Tokayev at the time of Nazarbayev's departure, who was replaced as speaker by the daughter of the first president, Dariga Nazarbayeva. On Tuesday, she herself announced that the decision on the presidential candidate would be made by the ruling party, Nur Otan.

The rush to hold elections surprises many and gives rise to some doubts about how stable the model of statehood in Kazakhstan is if it cannot tolerate a situation where the president is not elected but appointed, says political scientist Arkady Dubnov: "Apparently, more than a year before the elections creates a great risk of uncertainty, which Tokayev openly stated in his address." In addition, the rush gives rise to doubts about the health of the Elbasy, because the plan for the established transition assumes the transfer of power to persons trusted by Nazarbayev, the expert notes: "And this must be done during his lifetime in order to ensure the interests of the statehood he built, as well as the Nazarbayev family." At the same time, there are elements of legal nihilism in calling early elections, since the election law states that the nomination of a presidential candidate must take place the day after the announcement of the elections and end at 6 p.m. two months before voting day, Dubnov reminds: “That is, candidates must begin nominating tomorrow and finish it by 6 p.m. Some legislators say that in the case of early elections, if only one candidate has declared, the Central Election Commission can extend the nomination period to 20 days.” This option is apparently quite likely: Nur Otan party press secretary Aliya Burieva announced on Tuesday that the pre-election congress will take place closer to the end of April.

Dubnov also believes that Dariga Nazarbayeva will still take part in the elections: "If the Nur Otan party says that it is necessary, then she will go. This is a game, and she can say that she is handing over the decision to the party, which alone can nominate a candidate." Tokayev can also be nominated by the ruling party, but in his case it will be necessary to explain the conflict with the 15-year residency requirement, the expert emphasizes: "There is already talk that the 2.5 years that he was Deputy Secretary General of the UN in Geneva cannot be considered his absence from Kazakhstan, since he represented the country. But this is a trick. This is how we can talk about a post of Kazakhstan in another country, who, being on extraterritorial territory in the embassy, believes that he is not abroad. Tokayev worked in an international organization." So everything is moving towards Dariga Nazarbayeva being nominated by Nur Otan, Dubnov summarizes.

Kazakhstan's presidential elections to be held early