Brexit was postponed again

Now the UK should leave the European Union until October 31

On April 10, the EU emergency summit was called specially to discuss Brexit: at the last meeting of the British Prime Minister with European colleagues, they agreed that he would take place until May 22 if there was a transaction-either until April 12, and then it would be a solution without a transaction in general. However, the British parliament rejected the transaction for the third time, to offer his alternatives, supported by the majority, could not, but gathered a majority of votes in support of the bill that the UK could not be left without a transaction. The government agreed with this, so Teresa May went to Brussels with a difficult mission: to ask for a new delay, having no trump card in her hands. As a result, the EU leaders decided to give a delay-until October 31.

"Do not waste time"

The new date has already become the subject of numerous jokes: on the eve of Halloween, when it is customary to expel evil spirits, the long Brexit procedure, which managed to get bored with all the order, will finally be completed. This date became a compromise between the positions of several parties: Teresa May itself, who asked for a shorter postponement until June 30, French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for this issue as soon as possible - over the next weeks and most European leaders who agreed to give Great Britain how much time, as long as it would take.

“This postponement as flexible as possible is somewhat shorter than I expected, but there should be enough time to find the best solution,” said Donald Tusk, chairman of the European Council. “Please do not waste this time.”

Dedine in the form of October 31 means that the UK can come out earlier, more precisely-as soon as some kind of transaction option is agreed. Since both the parliament and the government have voted against the tough Brexit, the option of exit without a transaction is not considered now-although if in six months the deputies will not be able to approve any plan-this option will again become probable. In the meantime, Teresa May will continue negotiations with the leader of the opposition party of the Labor Labor Jeremy Corbin: after the third failure of her transaction in parliament, she invited Korbin at the negotiating table to develop a joint plan and guarantee that the UK will leave the European Union in accordance with the agreed transaction. ”

Negotiations began last week, but no specifics were brought to the EU summit - Korbin reproaches conservatives, led by May in the absence of flexibility and continues to insist on his proposal: to leave the UK as a member of the Customs Union. The leader of the Labor refers to the fact that in parliament this initiative, although it did not gain most votes, was among the most popular Brexit options. The government reported that immediately after May returned from Brussels, negotiations would continue.

Macron against Merkel and Tuska

The EU emergency summit lasted until late at night - and the day before it was clear that it would not be easy. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, before starting the summit, published a letter to his colleagues, in which he explained why he personally supports a long delay - for a year.

“Relying on our previous experience, as well as taking into account deep disagreements in the House of Commons, we can hardly expect that the process of ratification (transaction) can end until the end of June. In reality, such a delay will increase the risk of a series of further short deferrals and emergency summites, creating all new deadlines. In turn, this will almost certainly complicate the work of 27 EU members in the coming months. In addition, stretching instability does not affect both business and citizens. Finally, if we cannot agree on a new delay, there will be a risk of a collapsible Brexit without a deal, ”Tusk wrote.

His main opponent in this discussion was French President Emmanuel Macron. Several media, citing their own sources in the Champs Elysees, wrote that Macron could take advantage of the right veto-and prevent the adoption of a new delay, since this requires the consent of all EU member countries. “We do not want to import the British political crisis into the European Union,” an official in the Champs Elysees said the British newspaper Daily Express. “A long delay without serious guarantees will be unacceptable for France.”

However, Macron's motivation is not only concern for the future of the European Union, but also the desire to solve his own problems: to take control of Brexit in his own hands to prove to the French voter that he is able to sell a decision at the ES level, the best for France.

However, with a delay until October 31, Macron, after long disputes with an angel Merkel and other EU leaders, nevertheless agreed, calling it a compromise.

Elections to the European Parliament - or an exit without a deal

Teresa May, speaking after a meeting with the stupid, from whom she heard the EU verdict, once again apologized to the British citizens for being forced to ask for a delay and for the fact that "she still could not convince the parliament to accept the deal." The latter, however, could not have been apologized: according to the largest British research center NATCEN, only about 15% of citizens support the May deal.

Teresa May in her speech reminded that the UK is not obliged to wait on October 31 and can agree on a way out earlier - ideally, of course, until May 23, because then the country will be able to avoid elections to the European Parliament. And I really want to avoid-firstly, taking into account the plans of “Brexit”, this is a rather meaningless procedure (but formally necessary until the UK remains in the EU), and secondly, participation in the elections, according to preliminary calculations, will cost London about 109 million pounds-and it will be the money thrown to the wind.

But here the position of the European Union is absolutely transparent: either the UK comes to the election, or participates in them, or does not participate - and then it automatically goes out after the election, but without any transaction.

In addition to Brexit, May now faces another question-whether she herself will live as a prime minister until October 31. Until now, she has demonstrated amazing political vitality: despite the fact that her deal was rejected over and over again, and in negotiations with the EU it is not very possible to bend her line, May was able to survive the vote of no confidence in her party and at the parliament level. However, she already promised that she was ready to leave the post of prime minister, if there was a agreed transaction, and transfer to the Brexit management to the one who will become the new Prime Minister. After that, there was an invitation to Corbin to negotiations, which did not add points to her in the ranks of her own conservative party. The current decision of the European Union, which gives Britain to prepare for Brexita, but draws it into the British meaningless for the British and expensive European elections is another reason for opponents to say that May is no longer capable of defending the country's position.