Accepted inevitability

The second round of elections of the President of Ukraine will be held on Sunday, April 21. Sociological surveys predict the confident victory of the artistic director of the Kvartal-95 Studio Vladimir Zelensky. The gap is somewhat different in polls of various sociological services, but in any case it is large enough for Zelensky to feel confident.

On the live air of the 1+1 channel last Thursday, April 11, Poroshenko called Zelensky on the debate on April 14. Moreover, he came to the studio without an invitation-everything took place during the filming of the talk show “The right to power”. Nevertheless, they called the actor on the phone from the studio, learned that he was in Paris at a meeting with France President Emmanuel Macron and that Zelensky still insisted on the initial version with the debate on April 19. It all ended with a skirmish of two applicants for the presidential post. On Sunday, April 14, Poroshenko arrived at the Olympic stadium, but Zelensky did not appear at the debate, explaining that they were not appointed at 14, but on April 19.

The vice-president and head of the Ukrainian bureau of the Center for Political Technology Foundation Georgy Lvovich Chizhov told Polit.ru about the results of the second week of the campaign and whether it influenced the alignment of the votes.

Georgy Chizhov

The debate remained in meaningfully almost the main theme of the campaign. In addition, there were mini-debats when Petro Poroshenko came to the program of the 1+1 channel, the main media rope of Igor Kolomoisky. And although there was no “warm bath”, as we usually talk about benevolent broadcasts, they asked very sharp questions, however, the current president looked quite worthy. Zelensky did not come to this program, but it seems like, for a good reason, he went to France to meet with Emmanuel Macron. He took this broadcast for a while on the phone, but was rather impolite, and the informative conversation did not work out.

On April 14, Zelensky did not come to the debate to the stadium. He, however, offers the debate on April 19. Here, I think, we can say that he came up with how to make Poroshenko does not come to the debate. On April 19, debates on public television should take place. This norm does not oblige candidates to participate in the debate, but obliges the channel to hold these debates at the expense of the state budget. And Poroshenko at the very beginning said that he would certainly take part in these debates. So, apparently, Zelensky’s move is that Poroshenko will go to the debate for television, and not to the stadium. Be that as it may, this topic is already exhausted by and large, it will not work a lot to win on it.

The most important thing is that despite the fact that Tactically Zelensky continues to lose Poroshenko on all fronts, the polls show that there was no significant reduction in the breakdown. Those results that were predicted after the first round, and even on the eve of the first round, when modeling voting in the Poroshenko-Zelensky pair, were generally confirmed by new polls. Even if Poroshenko has any improvements, this is a matter of several percentage points. Even considering that in the second round, Poroshenko is better leading a campaign, this, apparently, can no longer affect the result. Although the supporters of Poroshenko and the opponents of Zelensky on social networks say that nothing is lost and urge to go vote, but there is a feeling that everyone accepts the defeat of Poroshenko and Zelensky’s victory.

Vladimir Zelensky / YouTube.com

They are already discussing whether Poroshenko has a chance to start a serious faction in the Verkhovna Rada. More recently, it was believed that there are no such chances and in the event of a defeat in the presidential election, the Poroshenko party simply will not fall into the parliament. Now, seeing a good fighting uniform, which suddenly (perhaps in the last weeks of his cadence) began to show the president, they spoke that his active role in Ukrainian politics would not end with this defeat. But for now, it is difficult to predict what will be in the parliamentary elections.

After two of the three weeks of the second round campaign, there is a feeling that in any case, no matter what happens (well, if completely emergency things do not happen), apparently, an inertial scenario is being implemented. No matter how much Zelensky loses in the campaign of the second round, as they say in boxing, by glasses, he, apparently, wins, and wins with a convincing advantage. This is at least 60 by 40, or even 70 by 30.

At the same time, it is important to understand that if the coalition does not fall apart in the Verkhovna Rada after the victory of Zelensky (although such a probability cannot be excluded), he will not have many opportunities. If he does not receive any serious support in the current convocation of the parliament, for many actions he will have to wait for new elections to the Rada. For example, he will not have the opportunity to change the prime minister. On the other hand, this will give Zelensky the opportunity to bring everything to the old parliament. Actually, he does not call his candidate for the prime ministers, just to say that, not having the instrumental opportunity to change the prime minister, it is pointless to call him.

Verkhovna Rada / rada.gov.ua

The question is also interesting how actively Zelensky will try to conduct an elite update. To date, I would still believe that Vladimir Zelensky is not yet a completely independent politician with his political face. Another thing is that having received the mandate, having received for five years, albeit not as comprehensive as in Russia, but still presidential powers, he is very likely to want to get out of custody and act according to his understanding. Of course, if he does not demonstrate any renovation pulse, he will quickly lose support. On the other hand, to believe that he will leave the old elites and their layouts with an accelerated march is also not very realistic.

Some opponents of Zelensky believe that he will simply be a puppet of Kolomoisky, who has a powerful clientele on all floors of the Ukrainian elite. This option cannot be excluded, but I think that in reality it will be a little more interesting. Although so far he will not be able to conduct a global update, even if he wants. But will some figures that will help him appear around him?

It is also important to note that if the opponents of Poroshenko were quite actively discussing what actions he would take, so as not to lose the presidential post, the introduction of martial law and the like, now such conversations are no longer heard. There is a feeling that Poroshenko, continuing to hope for victory, is ready to accept any election results.