Elbasy of all Eurasians

Why the Eurasian Union Honorary Chairman Nazarbayev

In May of this year, the Eurasian Economic Union is one of the strangest institutions of recent times, - notes the five -year anniversary. A month with a little before the birthday of May 29, it became known that for one of his main actors - the first president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, they are preparing a royal gift: a new position within the EAEU. It sounds like a "honorary chairman." The problem is not only that by ear this is perceived as a “wedding general”, but also in the fact that for the post, in principle, no functionality has been invented. So far, this is only a name-and it looks like the recognition of the merits of the Kazakh leader in that it was Elbasy (the head of state in Kazakh) that came up with this whole union.

It is clear why this is Nazarbayev himself. He expands the boundaries of his place in history and collects titles:

I would like to be not only the inside Kazakhstan Ataturk, but also the Eurasian personification of Lee Kuan Yu.

It is also clear what the Kremlin plan is. At a time when Vladimir Putin love world leaders, to put it mildly, not very, Nazarbayev continues to be friends with everyone. Let in domestic politics he repelled everything that was possible, and once brought social protests to the shooting of civilians. On a global scale, Nazarbayev is respected by both Comrade SI, Frend Donald, and even the president of one of the most developed democracies of Finland. Such a person can become a good showcase of the Eurasian Union in some potential negotiations with world powers. Putin can refuse courtesy, they will not refuse Nazarbayev (or at least carefully listened to him).

However, it is completely incomprehensible that the new human superstructure will give the Eurasian Economic Union itself.

Right now, the EAEU is very working inside itself and even looks promising in places (some steps for even greater softening of labor migration within the Union, for example, promise a lot). But he lost his possibilities for growth even at the time of his creation. The value added in the form of added Kyrgyzstan and Armenia brought bonuses only to Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, and even Uzbekistan is not torn to the EAEU (by the way, a 30 millionth market, only with a very intakeal democracy). What is Uzbekistan: so far even Tajikistan is not particularly striving under the wing to Moscow (for the sake of fairness, the ego of Rahmon does not fit there). In fact, in recent years, the casting for members of the EAEU took place only Vietnam and the Eurasian yield of Syria.

From the very beginning of the plan about the creation of the EAEU, no one particularly hid that it was an alternative to the European Union. But if you turn on the automobile analogies, the European Union is a shaking and creaking with unmasled details, but still a solid S-class car. And the “Honorary Chairman” Nazarbayev inside the EAEU looks like an attempt to put the engine from a “membership” type “Seagull” on a bicycle. But this bicycle does not have wheels to go somewhere, it’s just an exercise bike-a pleasant and useful for members of the sports club in which he stands, but not interesting to someone else as a full-fledged vehicle.

The Eurasian Economic Union can still live in the form of an independent structure for some time, if it becomes not an economic, but a political association. It is believed that the Kremlin looked in such a prospect back in 2014, but then postponed until better times. These best times have not come: with Lukashenko Moscow in the next quarrel, a revolutionary came to power in Armenia, little depends on Kyrgyzstan, and in Kazakhstan poorly simple people include the idea of ​​a political association:

Few people are seduced by the prospect called SOLOCOL 2.0. But this is only if Moscow is at the head. But if Nazarbayev becomes the leader, then the conversation can be done in a completely different way.

And let it be just an “honorary chairman”, but the presidents inside the EAEU also trust him. The space for manipulations appears quite wide.

Another option is the integration of the EAEU with the SCO or BRICS, representatives of Russian business (in particular, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs) have been talking about this for a year. Here Nazarbayev, being an experienced negotiator, can just come in handy. The Syndicate scheme is proposed: organizations plus others who want to enter the country's partnership (though, as a partner is considered, for example, Guinea), forming additional economic ties. The scheme is completely imperfect, but another way for the life of the Union is completely fatal. In the EAEU itself, they are proudly called themselves the “center of continental integration”, since the activities of the Union will be associated with the Chinese program “One Belt - One Way”. The problem is that exactly at the moment when the EAEU became interested in Beijing, the Union ceased to be fully Eurasian. There will be no integration, it will be a friendly, but irreversible absorption by China of the entire superstructure (while Comrade Xi can peacefully leave all the old names like the abbreviation of the EAEU-so that friends from Moscow, Astana (Nur-Sultan), Minsk do not worry).

Among the business, they understand this, they still do not want to recognize in the political environment. But if the situation goes according to the absorption scenario, the “Honorary Chairman” Nazarbayev will not be able to do anything, no matter how respect he used.

By the way, on April 17, Kazakhstan approved ratification of the agreement on trade and economic cooperation with Beijing. China has become even easier to enter the markets of the EAEU countries, and its economy right now is much larger than the economy of the entire union. Another gift for the fifth anniversary, so to speak. Moreover, suddenly this anniversary is the last.