How to lose Ukraine in just three weeks

Ilya Zhegulev tells how Zelensky and Poroshenko had a time between two rounds - and why the current president of Ukraine lost

Judging by the Eccit Polelov , the new president of Ukraine is Vladimir Zelensky (73.2%). The absolute beginner defeats a strong rival, the political heavyweight of Petro Poroshenko (25.3%) - although it was more recently believed that Poroshenko had a very high chance of victory in the second round. The special correspondent of Medusa Ilya Zhegulev, who was watching the elections in Kyiv, tells what mistakes Poroshenko made - and how he lost the country in just three weeks.

“That Pyotr Alekseevich needs support - I did not see this. He walks normally! Thank you, ”-the Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman measured the journalist, turned away and went up the stairs. This was the answer to the question of the correspondent of Gromadsky-TV-about whether the ally of the Ukrainian president will support Poroshenko in the second round of elections. “Beautiful,” the journalist reacted to how ironically Groysman turned out.

On the eve of the first round, no one allowed himself such jokes. Prime Minister Groysman publicly campaigned for the re -election of the president, with whom he has been in the political coalition, moreover, in one party “Solidarity” bloc. ” A month ago, many Ukrainian politicians expected that the current president, even having lost in the first round, will be able to mobilize the electorate of other candidates - and become the favorite of the second round. However, Poroshenko not only could not attract new voters, but also lost some of the old ones. So now even Groysman makes it clear that he is ready to work with Vladimir Zelensky.

Vladimir Zelensky achieved victory because he was silent more. He did not even call members of the future administration until the last

“Call me“ Lady No ”,” says Irina Pobedonostseva, the development director of the Kvartal 95 studio, she is now actually responsible for the public relations at the headquarters of the candidate Zelensky. Its “no” applies to all contacts of the key members of the Zelensky team with journalists, not to mention the presidential candidate itself.

This is a strategy. Instead of telling about himself and presenting his program to voters as often as possible, Zelensky did not give a single press conference during the campaign-and extremely rarely went to the public. If before the first round it could be seen at least at the concerts of the Quarter 95 (the team traveled with performances in Ukraine, some of them were free), then concerts also disappeared before the second round, and the candidate did not suit other propaganda events and meetings with voters. For all three weeks between the tours, Zelensky gave one interview with RBC-Ukraine and once visited the studio of the 1+1 television channel. The candidate told voters directly about himself - with the help of videos in Yetube.

This silence has an explanation. “When such a gap [in ratings with an opponent], any extra word said - it can only ruin everything,” explains one of the representatives of the Zelensky Medusa team. The political strategist who helps the headquarters to conduct the campaign adds: “They banned all [to the close supporters of Zelensky publicly] to say after it turned out that different people from the candidate’s team could say directly opposite things in different television broadcasts. Yes, and did it. "

Several sources from among those working for the candidate of Zelensky told Medusa that the ban came from the leaders of the campaign. If on the eve of the first round and immediately after the victory in it, many of the candidate’s entourage agreed to speak with journalists, then after literally a few days everything changed.

Part of the same minimal communication strategy is to create intrigue around the team with which the presidential candidate goes to power. Zelensky called his associates only three days before the second round; This happened on Thursday, April 18, on the special air of the 1+1 television channel: 20 people lined up in the studio, which, as the presidential candidate said, will work in the administration of the head of state in case of his victory.

Zelensky took into the team Ivan Bakanov, one of the founders of the Kvartal 95 studio, the founder of the Party “Servant of the People” and the head of his election headquarters. Bakanov will have to engage in the presidential administration interacting with parliament. The team included many young, but little -known specialists, they will be entrusted with different, including unexpected, directions. For example, the current assistant to the deputy and journalist Sergei Leshchenko Marina Bardina will deal with the problem of gender equality. The deputy Leshchenko himself, who helped Zelensky on a volunteer basis, was not in the team. As did not turn out to Aivaras Abromavicyus, the former Minister of Economic Development of Ukraine, who was considered the future prime minister-reform under the President of Zelensky. But there is another former member of the government who declared the desire to engage in reforms-Alexander Danilyuk (Minister of Finance of Ukraine in 2016-2018). Presenting him, Zelensky called Danilyuk as the only “drawback” of Danilyuk exactly that he was a minister.

Poroshenko was supposed to defeat the inexperienced policy of Zelensky. But could not, because the opponent imposed his conditions for him

In 2014, during the presidential election, Petro Poroshenko refused the debate, because he was an unconditional favorite of the race and did not want to communicate with weaker competitors, in 2019 the story could repeat: before the first round, the president also did not participate in the public exchange of replicas-just like his main competitor Vladimir Zelensky. As a result, only Yulia Tymoshenko came to the debate on the first tour of the noticeable figures and (for lack of competitors) immediately left.

Before the second round, the situation has changed. For Poroshenko, Debata seemed a great chance to defeat the opponent. The speaker himself is “not a politician, but a simple person” Vladimir Zelensky in many matters is incompetent, and Poroshenko had the opportunity to crush the opponent with authority, professionalism and the ability to conduct political discussion. Therefore, this time, Poroshenko and his people insisted on the public dispute of the candidates - and Zelensky’s headquarters was not much enthusiastic about this idea. “I don’t see the point of starting these, sorry for the rude word, dog battles, when people arrange a talk show, and not a discussion or exchange of views on programs,” said a former deputy minister of justice and a member of the Zelensky Ryaboshaka team.

But this time the strategy of silence did not work. On April 2, the media holding “National Public Television and Radio Company of Ukraine” launched Flashmob #Debata_chelendge on social networks - a call to the candidates to come to a meeting with each other. In fact, the call was addressed only to one candidate - Vladimir Zelensky.

On April 3, Zelensky released a video in which he set the conditions under which he agrees to a public discussion: firstly, the debate should go to the stadium, and secondly, the participants should take tests for alcohol and drugs (mutual accusations of drug and alcohol dependence were part of the black technologies of the headquarters). In his video with a triumphant look against the background of the stands of the Kyiv Stadium "Olympic" showman Zelensky smiled: he put his opponent in unprofitable conditions, calling him instead of a television at a political program for a concert stage.

The next day, the turn of Poroshenko came to release a video in which he agreed to Zelensky's conditions. “The stadium, so the stadium,” the president waved his hand in a response video. “I cannot admit that the video [Vladimir Zelensky] was recorded so that Poroshenko refused,” says a source in the team of Zelensky. “But let's say this: not a single person at the headquarters, including Zelensky himself, expected that the president would agree.”

After Poroshenko accepted Zelensky's conditions, the current president tried to change the conditions several times in his favor. At first he proposed to postpone the date (on April 14 instead of the 19th; Zelensky refused). And in the evening of April 11, he suddenly came to the friendly rival of the 1+1 television channel and went to the evening talk show studio. As it turned out later, no one was waiting for him there, but they did not dare to refuse the president. Poroshenko suggested Zelensky right now to come to the studio and start the debate. Zelensky at that time was in France (the next day he met with the president of the republic Emmanuel Macron). He gave his answer by phone, moreover, he did it rather rudely: “None of you will put our team in position. And now I finished. On the 19th, the NSC Olympic. Dot. Goodbye, ”Zelensky minted and hung up.

And yet, on the 14th, Poroshenko gathered his supporters at the Olympic stadium, setting two stands - for himself and for Zelensky. The second tribune was never useful, and the president held a rally. The rhetoric of the president regarding the absent opponent was: incompetent, puppet of Kolomoisky, a screen, behind which the oligarchs will rule Ukraine, moreover, he will surrender the country of Russia. At the end of the action, Poroshenko sang the song “Ti Zhee Pidmann” in honor of Zelensky. The audience in bewilderment listened to the president, few responded to the call to sing this song together.

There were difficulties with the second condition of Zelensky - to take an analysis of drugs. Poroshenko gave blood on the air, and some media reported that he also passed the analysis of urine, nails and hair. Then the president passed the tests again (the WADA anti -doping agency has agreed on the audit), but the media effect was greased again: new headlines of type “Mocha Poroshenko left for the candidate” came out in blogs and the media. “Petro Poroshenko built his image for the role of the father of the nation. But the princesses are generally not pissing, ”says Alexander Harebin, a political scientist who declared his work for the Zelensky team (the candidate himself denies the fact of cooperation). - No one could imagine that Poroshenko would fall to the level of delivery of the analysis. He violated the sacredness of the presidential position. It turned out that the president is the same as Zelensky. He showed his vulnerability. "

Zelensky this delicate stage of preparation for the debate was more caught in caution: he handed over the analysis once in the medical center, which is owned by his supporter.

In general, during these three weeks, the candidates did not manage to do any other important things, except for meetings with world leaders: Vladimir Zelensky - with President of France Macron, and Petro Poroshenko with the same macron and with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The rest of the time, both candidates took preparations for the debate - and disputes about them.

Zelensky was afraid of Debatov - and prepared for them. But Poroshenko attacked him on the simplest topics

The Olympic Stadium, where Zelensky suggested holding the debate, belongs to the state. Therefore, the video, according to the representative of the headquarters of Zelensky, was removed quickly - they paid for the rental of premises right on the day of filming. In addition, the representatives of the Zelensky team stacked the arena (signed a preliminary agreement) as of April 19, so that the administrative resource of the competitor does not become an obstacle to the debate on the day convenient for his enemy. “They raked [the administration of the sports structure] for this excellent from the authorities,” says one of the organizers of the event. Nevertheless, the final lease agreement for the 19th with Zelensky was still signed.

According to political scientist Harebin, the braveness of the leadership of the “Olympic” is hardly explained by sympathies to one of the candidates, rather, an understanding that the chance of changing the country's leadership is great. “Everyone wants to work further. It is not clear who will win. You don’t know how to do it - do it by law, ”says Harebin. - The state -owned enterprise on what basis will refuse if he is offered money and on this day no events take place? So most Ukrainian officials acted these days. You don’t know what to do - do the law. ”

Since it was not known whether Poroshenko will agree or not to Zelensky’s conditions, the showman’s headquarters prepared a plan of B. “If Poroshenko had not come to the debate, there would be a concert“ Quarter 95 ”and music, well, Zelensky’s appeal to the supporters. In principle, this was designed for this, we thought that Poroshenko would not come. ” When the president realized that his opponent would still hold a large election campaign in the Olympic, he had no other choice but to agree.

People from the administration of the head of state contacted representatives of Zelensky’s headquarters and began to discuss the details of the meeting, and this turned out to be difficult. At first, the headquarters of Zelensky wanted to make the entrance free, without tickets, but the opponents flatly refused - to have control of those who and in what quantity will come to the stadium. “We then offered tickets to sell in order to give money to the [charity project for the treatment of children with oncology] “ Tablets ” to give. No, it is refused, ”says one of the organizers of the debate from Zelensky. - We tell them: well, let's not we invented it, let's say what you came up with, your idea. No, on ***. All tickets are free, only VIP tribunes for money. ”

After the headquarters of Poroshenko agreed on the size and colors of the stage, as well as the equipment used, suddenly people from Zinteco arose at the stadium (this is the leader of the Ukrainian technical support for concerts and other mass events of the country). The employees of this company began to mount another scene - for Petro Poroshenko. Now two scenes stood like a gate on a football field, opposite each other. Similarities with a football match were added that the headquarters of Poroshenko decided to share supporters of Zelensky and Poroshenko in the stands and in the fan zone on the field by sectors. “All negotiations were held on the principle“ in the morning agreed, at lunch, they overturned, in the evening - on ***, at nine in the evening the second time for ***, at midnight they talked again. ” We are talking about the day with different people, and everything is happening, ”the representative of the headquarters of Zelensky is angry.

During the debate, it seemed that the supporters of Petro Poroshenko were more at the stadium. This is due to the fact that the headquarters of Zelensky did not distribute tickets to his fan zone through the Internet, and Petro Poroshenko’s headquarters actively distributed his tickets. None of the spectators who came to the Medusa correspondent who came to the part of the stadium where the supporters of the current president was about, could tell how he received a beautiful ticket ticket. Most often they answered: "The elder gave." Or: "The leadership gave us all."

Four hours before the start of the debate, the teams of the candidates have not yet agreed on the regulations. Until the last, it was not clear whether Poroshenko would go on stage to Zelensky - or would remain on his own. The president first went to his stage and greeted the supporters, and then nevertheless went through the field to the stage, where Zelensky was waiting for him.

On the eve of this event, whenever the Medusa correspondent asked about Zelensky’s schedule and the opportunity to meet him, the headquarters replied that the candidate was strongly loaded. When asked what exactly, the answer was almost always as follows: "preparing for the debate." So it was, confirms the source surrounded by Zelensky. For example, on the economic issues of Zelensky, the former Minister Abromavichyus and deputy Leshchenko persecuted: they portrayed Petro Poroshenko, trying to imagine what questions he could ask. Zelensky gathered the same groups on other issues that we could talk about during the debate. Most of the staff of the headquarters were not confirmed: Poroshenko during the debate did not concern special issues of government, but went through all the same theses that he had more than once mentioned in his election speeches (unprofessionalism, Kolomoisky, Russia). Zelensky was ready to answer these claims.

While Zelensky is popular, he can strengthen his power by dissolving the parliament

“They met Zelensky, tried to understand what powers there are in order to start doing something right away,” one of the former Ukrainian officials sighs, who now helps the Zelensky team. Despite the fact that Poroshenko during the campaign represented the victory of his opponent in the elections almost as a national catastrophe, there is no need to wait for the new president in Ukraine after the victory of the new president. The president does not have such powers here as, for example, Russian.

После оглашения официальных результатов выборов в стране останется то же самое правительство Владимира Гройсмана и назначенные еще в президентство Петра Порошенко министры. Вполне вероятно, что президент и премьер, избегавший после первого тура критики в адрес Зеленского, легко договорятся. «Разница в возрасте между Гройсманом и Зеленским — пять лет, — прикидывает бывший министр экономического развития Украины Айварас Абромавичюс. — Я ожидаю, что кабмин будет вести себя достаточно конструктивно. Не вижу причин, почему не могли бы они сработаться. Гройсман проявил себя лучшим премьер-министром, чем от него ожидали. Экономика стала расти, социальные выплаты тоже, дороги строятся».

Покладистыми могут оказаться и депутаты Верховной Рады. У президента есть право распустить парламент, и его партия «Слуга народа» на волне популярности нового главы государства наверняка сможет получить десятки процентов голосов на выборах. А значит, многим нынешним парламентариям роспуск не выгоден: в новый состав Рады они могут просто не попасть.

По мнению перебравшегося в Киев бывшего российского оппозиционера и украинского предпринимателя Ильи Пономарева, сразу после выборов без препятствий новый президент может назначить только главу своей администрации и главу Совета национальной безопасности. Пономарева часто зовут на местное телевидение в политические шоу в качестве независимого эксперта — хотя он признается, что сейчас его симпатии на стороне Владимира Зеленского. «Помню, в студии все раскричались: „Мы не знаем, кто будет министром иностранных дел! Он [Зеленский] никого не представил!“ Я ответил: „Вы не знаете, а я знаю. [Нынешний глава МИД Павел] Климкин“».

Действующие министры останутся на своих местах до осени 2019 года, когда состоятся очередные выборы в Верховную Раду, после которых кабинет министров по закону должен уйти в отставку. Это опасное время для нового президента Украины: к этому времени при жестком сопротивлении политических конкурентов Зеленский может начать терять популярность. Пономарев говорит, что Зеленскому было бы выгодно распустить парламент уже в ближайшее время. Сам кандидат в президенты в интервью «РБК-Украине» такой возможности не исключил. Если Зеленскому удастся сформировать свою коалицию в Верховной Раде, он получит максимум власти в стране.

Илья Жегулев , Киев, Украина