Given an order to him - to the west

What to expect from the new president of Ukraine

The victory of Vladimir Zelensky in the Ukrainian presidential election plunged the Russian ruling team into a state of political clouding, which, as applied to individual patients, is classified in psychiatry as a split personality.

On the one hand, a difficult to restrained gloating pleasure from defeating all Poroshenko - “Nationalist”, “Russophobe” and “American puppet”. If he openly built his campaign on the dichotomous thesis “If not me, then Putin”, then the Russian chiefs of the quietly adhered to the formula “anyone, just not Poroshenko”.

On the other hand, it is not clear what to expect from an inexperienced, far from political bomond, and therefore the unpredictable “servants of the people”, who nevertheless won with a devastating account of the hated, but understandable “Russophobe”. In addition, during the years of his presidency, there are so many convenient reasons for the ruthless anti -Ukrainian propaganda, which has become an obligatory component of sociotechnical manipulations on the internal front.

Delayed congratulations

This misunderstanding was materialized into a delayed delay in the point of view of traditional diplomacy, a delay on direct congratulations of the Electic President. Russian officials have chosen the genre of “Comments with Teachings”.

So, Prime Minister Medvedev on his FB page, along with statements about demonstration by voting Ukrainians, “requests for new approaches” and “chances of improving interaction with our country”, began to explain (obviously, the newly elected president, which, like Navalny, could not be named by name), what qualities should be shown for this. Starting with honesty and ending with sanity, apparently characteristic of the teaching side.

The mouth of the Foreign Ministry - Maria Zakharova (by the way, also on Facebook and also without names) expressed the hope that "Ukraine can reload." But, they say, not in the sense of redistribution of income “from one pockets to others”, but the other, true, based on “the development of a nationwide agenda”, so as not to “turn off millions of own citizens from voting”.

And the president’s mouth, Dmitry Peskov, said the words about “respect for the choice of the Ukrainian people”, but did not congratulate Elex on the victory, referring to the prematureness of this act due to the lack of official results, as well as because the new president must first “prove” something and carry out some “specific steps”. Observers recall that the similar formula was expressed by the Kremlin last November after the election of Georgia by President Salome Zurabishvili, which quickly responded about the prospects of relations with Russia negatively, for which she did not receive official congratulations to the Kremlin.

What definitely will not

It seems that the president Zelensky will have to wait for the congratulations for a long time. Today in Ukraine there is not a single serious politician who would be ready to accept the Russian version of what happened and continues to happen in Ukraine, starting with Euromaidan. This fully applies to Zelensky. Not a “coup” in February 2014 is only a “revolution of dignity”. Not the Russian choice of the Crimean population in a referendum is only the annexation of Crimea by Russia. No far -reaching autonomy "DPR" and "LPR". No total amnesty for “separatists” - those who are involved in specific crimes should be punished, “the bandits will answer”. As for the state language of the country, it should be one - Ukrainian. Autocephalus of the Ukrainian Church is normal.

In principle, all this, already voiced by Zelensky during the election campaign, is unlikely to be subject to revision - after all, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens think so, which is evidenced not only by politics broadcasting from their face, but also by numerous sociological surveys.

The fears of some and the dreams of others about some kind of change in the vector of the Ukrainian policy under Zelensky from European to pro-Russian ones look completely himeric.

And not only because in fact, the Ukrainians have mostly made their choice in favor of the first. Zelensky himself and its nuclear electorate are young Ukrainian Europeans, cosmopolitan, post -industrial and globalized, sharing the ideals of the original Euromaidan, seeing a chance to develop in European structures (Ukraine should become an “awesome liberal, very free country” - so Zelensky formulated this in an interview with a Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon). This, together with the prospect of joining NATO to ensure the security of the country (however, through the national referendum), of course, does not coincide with that picture of the world and those geopolitical projects that the current Russian authorities are so persistent, claiming to maintain active influence in the “zone of vital interests” among their post -Soviet borders and the opposition to the spread of Western influence there.

What can change

If the chosen president, who received the obvious mandate of voters, will be able to preserve and implement what he promised to them during the campaign, then changes in politics should occur.

According to Zelensky and his experts, the Donbass should become completely Ukrainian, but categorically not a military way. War and human sacrifices should be avoided, fighting, the level of warlike rhetoric is reduced. To do this, you need to enter into negotiations with Russia (up to a meeting with Putin), find a reasonable compromise and, possibly, approve it in a referendum. Seriously engage in the exchange of prisoners. And then resume social payments to residents of territories not controlled by Kyiv so that they do not feel cut off from Ukraine. And the story in the Donbass "Information offensive".

At the same time, the idea of ​​the “exchange” of Crimea for the world in the Donbass is categorically rejected.

The Minsk format must be reanimated and improved, the replacement of representatives from Ukraine in the contact group is stated. Russia must be more involved in peace negotiations. The Norman format should be expanded - most likely at the expense of the United States and the UK. It is necessary to force the introduction of peacekeeping forces into the conflict zone - preferably according to the Volker plan (first the separation line, then small cities and villages, then Donetsk with Lugansk).

If it is necessary to fix the status of the Ukrainian language as the only state, it is supposed to stop the forced Ukrainization of the country and the war with the Russian language and Russian culture, which are used by millions of citizens. They should not feel like citizens of the second grade.

Apparently, we should expect in the activities of the presidential power a reduction in the nationalist intensity, which increased during the presidency of Poroshenko. Zelensky, who received the greatest support in the east and south of the country, where the number of Russian -speaking and few venerators of Bandera is unlikely to want to lose it.

Tied hands

For all that, these “amendments to politics” must still be implemented, and it will be extremely difficult to do in the near future. Ukraine is not Russia, the role of the president in this parliamentary and presidential republic is much less significant. On October 27, elections to the Verkhovna Rada are coming, where Zelensky must be enlisted by support - after all, it is glad that the government forms the government based on the results of the elections. His newly created party “Servant of the People” gains points, in March its rating, according to various sociological sources, was about 15%on average. Following are the "Fatherland" of Yulia Tymoshenko and the very weighty block of Petro Poroshenko. Most likely, after the victory of Zelensky, the "servant" will still grow up. However, in the majority segment, in the districts, the chances of the Zelensky party are lower than that of party veterans, since the young party does not yet have a developed regional structure.

In addition, in the period before the elections, the current “Poroshenkovskaya” is able to present many unpleasant legislative surprises - in particular, the announced “law on the president”, which can even more limit the rights of the head of state, even closer to the country to the parliamentary model. So Zelensky will have to behave extremely neatly and carefully, at least to the parliamentary elections. And this is not the most favorable background for political changes.