The Kremlin's nomination of an outsider as governor could prevent the oppositionist from winning in a poor region / Evgeny Yepanchintsev / RIA Novosti

The decline in real incomes of the population sharply increases the risks of the Kremlin's candidates in gubernatorial elections, political scientist Maria Snegovaya and electoral analyst Vladimir Kozlov claim in their study "Factors of Competitiveness in Elections of Regional Heads in 2012-2018" (Vedomosti has reviewed it). Using statistical analysis, they found that the dynamics of real incomes of the population in the region has the greatest impact on the success of the government candidate, and as the socio-economic situation worsens, this relationship will only strengthen. In addition, the result of the pro-government candidate is affected by voter turnout - the higher it is, the better his result. But with regard to the candidate's rootedness in the region, the dependence is the opposite: if the government nominates an outsider for the elections, then his chances of being elected are higher.

As experts note, in 2018, the number of competitive campaigns (where the candidates from the government received less than 60% of the vote) increased significantly: if in 2012–2017 there were 10 of 87 (11.5%), then in 2018 there were 7 of 22 (31.8%). As a result, four incumbent governors failed to win the elections, although before that only communist Sergei Levchenko won the elections in the Irkutsk region against Governor Sergei Eroshchenko in 2015. The 2018 elections also stand out for the lowest average result of the winner – 63.8% versus 72.1% in the previous seven years.

How did they count?

The authors of the study suggested that the success of a candidate in power is directly dependent, in particular, on the dynamics of real incomes of residents, high turnout, the candidate's membership in United Russia, low unemployment in the region, a higher level of voting for United Russia or Vladimir Putin in federal elections, and the fact that the candidate was born in this region. And failure in the elections is threatened by the admission of a large number of candidates to them, the presence of a competitive business environment in the region, and a high proportion of the urban population.

For the analysis, the experts used the least squares method - this is the simplest way to find out the statistical significance of the relationship between certain data, explains Snegovaya. It turned out that the success of a candidate in power depends to the greatest extent on high turnout (although this may mean a high probability of falsifications, the researchers stipulate) and the dynamics of the population's income. "We took the average incomes for the two years preceding the elections, and the statistical analysis shows a dependence on the dynamics of income. This explains the problematic voting in the 2018 elections," says Snegovaya.

Experts explain the inverse relationship between the governor's results and the fact that he was born in the region by the fact that the Kremlin is currently pursuing a policy of replacing old leaders with new ones who do not have a negative history in the region and are not connected to local elite groups.

However, the dependence on voting for United Russia and the share of the urban population turned out to be quite weak.

In this regard, researchers predict that the regions with old candidates – Andrei Bocharov in the Volgograd Region, Vladimir Vladimirov in the Stavropol Region, and Oleg Kuvshinnikov in the Vologda Region – will be the most problematic for the authorities in the 2019 elections. Of the regions where governors have been replaced, problems may arise in Kalmykia, Altai, the Kurgan and Murmansk Regions, and the Zabaikalsky Region, Snegovaya adds.

The worsening socioeconomic situation could lead to more frequent defeats of Kremlin candidates in gubernatorial elections, the study says. But the Kremlin is now better prepared for elections to avoid surprises, including through financial injections into the regions and stricter registration of candidates.

Statistical difficulties

Economist Natalya Zubarevich, on the contrary, is convinced that the results of pro-government candidates do not depend on the dynamics of the population's income, since Rosstat is not able to adequately measure this dynamics in the regional context, and "everything we see in the figures is crap": "The quality of measurements of regional incomes and their dynamics is very low, so using this indicator as an explanatory one is very risky. For example, in 2018, the dynamics of the population's income in Adygea went up, she gives an example: "All shopping centers in Krasnodar are registered there, and the calculation methodology is such that the retail turnover is included as a correction indicator. And if Krasnodar trade is legally assigned to Adygea, then everything will be fine in terms of income." There will be problems in the elections in 2019, Zubarevich predicts: “Now we will have to change governors every five years, because an outsider can adapt to a region with a decent rating, when he is covered by the presidential rating, in all other cases the problems will increase.”

Complaints about the quality of statistics are inevitable, but there are no other criteria to focus on, Snegovaya objects: “In addition, experts have repeatedly spoken about the decline in disposable incomes and their connection with the decline in government ratings – we simply proved this connection empirically.”

Economics vs. Politics

Mathematical methods in electoral analysis are useful and work, but they should not be absolutized, believes the head of ISEPI Dmitry Badovsky. "Regions differ in the type of political culture and electoral behavior: in some places, for example, in the national republics, many regions of the center and south of Russia, there is traditionally a high turnout and conservative voting for the authorities. The turnout structure can reflect different trends - both protest voting and controlled mobilization," he says. The authorities already proceed from the fact that negative socio-economic indicators are a risk factor, and are pursuing an active policy of preventing them, the expert continues. But the obtained patterns should be analyzed in a complex, he is sure: "Turnout is interconnected, for example, with the competitiveness of the line of candidates. And the effect of the factor of decreasing income will strongly depend on whether we are talking about the re-election of the current head for a new term or the election of a new leader." The problematic nature of the regions in 2019 is mainly determined by the configuration of the campaign: regions with heads running for re-election (Volgograd, Stavropol) or with a significant anti-rating of the governor (St. Petersburg, Sakhalin) are difficult, but much will depend on the opponents, Badovsky stipulates.

A decrease in income levels as a motivation for protest voting in elections in Russia has never worked, so attempts before elections to “flood the region with money” have rarely worked, says political scientist Boris Makarenko: “The Outsiders have always come to the regions, in recent years en masse, so it is more correct to say whether a new or old governor is running for election: the new ones have a greater chance of being re-elected, since there has not been enough time for a number of claims to be made against them.”

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