Translated material
Everything is still, but the phone is different
Europe is preparing for the elections to the European Parliament and to change the leaders of the union bodies: what to wait?
In the Vienna Cafe Central, where Trotsky went to read fresh newspapers in the morning, dozens of newspaper bells are still hanging on special bronze hangers, and they are in demand. As, however, in other Vienna cafes. In the era of smartphones and iPads, the Austrians love to look through the paper press behind a cup of coffee and cake. In this, if you want, their peculiar conservatism. Conservatism has become a profitable product in the campaign before the elections to the European Parliament.
“We will defend what we love: Austria,” calls the Vice-Chancellor from the Ultroprava with the Nazi roots of the Austrian Fibrai Party (FPö) Hinz-Christian Strache from the election poster. He calls the voters back to Austria and Europe, which are no longer, perfectly aware of this fact. Kebab in the fast food shops near the metro stations and on the market, our Mamarct near the opera, has long supplanted the Viennese sausages, and students who are happy to rush it, probably, think that it has always been so, and do not see anything bad in that. Someone decorated the posters with portraits of Strach and other candidates of FPö with the inscriptions "fascist".
The election campaign is in full swing throughout the European Union, even in the UK, which has already come out of it with one foot. The elections will be held on the basis of quotas of the representative office defined for each country, but in accordance with its national electoral legislation. Even the election day is determined by the country.
May 23 - in the Netherlands and the UK,
May 24 - in Ireland,
May 25 - in Malta, in Latvia, Slovakia and in the Czech Republic,
May 26 - in all other EU countries.
The campaign is actively: with the debate of politicians, public discussions, a kaleidoscope of the opinions of experts in the media, and public opinion polls. Not because the European Parliament is such an important instance in the life of Europeans. Although over the past decades, its functions have expanded significantly, it remains mainly the advisory body, a place for discussions.
The importance of these elections is to fix the alignment of political forces and public moods in changing Europe. The migration crisis that hit Europe in 2015 is mainly overcome. The consequences of the economic and financial crisis, the crisis of the eurozone, are fading away, when the EU rich members had to be pulled out of the debt jagging of the bankrupt allies. Greece is put on his feet. The European economy is growing.
Not in all countries, things go the same, but worst times behind.
At the same time, crises caused tectonic shifts in society, revealed the weaknesses of the European political establishment that had developed during the post -war integration of the continent, gave rise to and strengthened the ultra -right and populist parties, which, if not for the dissolution of the EU, then for the serious dismantling of its achievements, including the Schengen space, the currency of the euro, the single market. How deep and irreversible these consequences of crises are and how the political background of Europe has changed should show elections to the European Parliament.
Analytical centers and funds compete in attempts to predict the picture. On May 11, the “European negotiations” campaign started. The Greek mathematician went to the border town of Bulgaria to discuss with the Bulgarian social worker, whether the EU improves the quality of life of citizens. A business consultant from Prague went to the German border in order to argue with a pensioner from Saxony in a cafe about the appropriateness of border control between the EU countries. The action was held by 15 European media with the support of the German Foreign Ministry, the European Culture Fund, and private funds. According to a special algorithm, they analyzed the answers of almost 15 thousand participants (data on Zeit Online).
Only 19% support the idea of restoring border control within the EU as a means of struggle against illegal migration.
Young people do not remember and does not represent Europe with borders and visas. But almost a quarter of the participants thinks that in Europe there are "too many migrants."
- The vast majority ( 91% ) believe that the country's membership in the EU improves the life of its inhabitants. In general, judging by the results of the action, its participants believe in the EU and represent liberal views on internal problems.
Another study performed by the Yugov Institute for the Lena European newspaper Alliance provides a more complex picture. The survey was conducted in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Sweden and Hungary, where 320 million people or 62% of the EU live.
61% of respondents believe that the entry of their country into the European Union is a good.
68% are sure that in the next 10 years the EU will exist.
Although for 20% this is not at all obvious, such a situation inspires optimism: citizens do not feel the prospects for the collapse of the Union.
The respondents put the main calls in order of priority.
The main challenges for Europe (survey results)
- migration from third countries ( 35% ),- climate change and environmental degradation ( 29% ),
- threat to peace and security ( 23% ),
- The gap between the rich and poor EU countries ( 18% ).
After the crisis of refugees in 2015, migration remains the main subject of anxiety of Europeans, although before that during the post -war years the continent on the western side of the “iron curtain” accepted many millions of immigrants and was accustomed to other skin color. But now
46% of respondents say that you should not accept more immigrants from crisis regions.
Only 25% believe that it is necessary to continue for considerations of solidarity.
56% of respondents associate migration with the threat of terrorist attacks.
55% are responsible for the EU for strengthening the protection of external borders of the United Europe.
Only 13% for taking care of this each state separately.
The concern of the Europeans has decreased by migration, when compared with the previous polls. The most tolerant was Germany. There, tolerance for migrants is correlated with successes in the integration of refugees and the fall in the popularity of the ultra -right “Alternative for Germany”, which scored was a crisis. A egregious episode with the attack of migrants on German women at the Kölnsky station did not happen again, and the touching story of Russian television about the “girl Lisa” was just a fake.
The most xenophobic, against this background, the EU country-Hungary, where 59% of respondents spoke out against any immigration, and only 15% under some conditions allow it.
A somewhat unexpected was the output of the environmental topic for second place in the threat rating. It is ahead of the minds of Europeans even a threat to peace and security.
In recent months, a wave of demonstrations swept through the continent, mainly young people, with demands to protect the environment, adapt to climate change. At the same time, people against some methods of the struggle of the authorities for the ecology, for example, increase prices for automobile fuel.
New populist parties and movements that have exalted during the crisis years will inevitably change the political landscape of Europe. Judging by the surveys, the growth of their influence is worried not only of traditional ruling elites, but also most EU citizens.
43% of Europeans interviewed by the YouGov Institute consider this a threat to the functioning of the EU.
Only 16% do not agree with this opinion.
But my long -standing colleague, one of the founders of the influential Brussels network of Euractiv, Daniel Gros does not advise exaggerating the threat. Firstly, Euroskeptics are not a new phenomenon. They were widely represented in the first elected European Parliament in 1979, when the total market of nine states was quite amorphous and weak. They failed to ruin him and stop the advance to the Union.
Secondly, the current success of populists is the expected response to the rapid European integration of recent years, and not the opposition of the EU as such. Now refugee flows are under control, the economy of Europe works better, unemployment has sank to the lowest level in this century. As a result, even the most Euroskeptic politicians abandoned the resistance of Brussels. In Sweden, France and Italy, they abandoned the requirements to leave the eurozone or the EU.
Thirdly, a real test for them will come after the election, when they will have to formulate an alternative consistent vision of the Europe and the role of the EU in the European Parliament. It is unlikely to appear.
It is obvious that in the current manner of managing the united Europe, voters do not like a lot. They see the EU excessively bureaucratic, looking for an alternative. Feeling behind the breath of the "non -playing", parties are trying to look for it, which are commonly called traditional. The younger Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz a week ago, the youngest of the EU leaders in the Club, a week ago said that “nobody needs EU standards for the preparation of a shnitzel and potato free.” He criticized the “regulatory” and “paternalism” of Brussels and called him not to teach people how to live. True, not in any EU directive there was no instructions on how to fry shnitzel and potatoes. At the end of 2017, a whole working group was created in Austria to identify the areas of the EU policy that can be returned to the competence of the countries, but did not find anything special.
Whatever the views of the election result in the European Parliament (and, apparently, it will not be catastrophic), the EU establishment is preparing for the formation of new union bodies. In Brussels there is a complete change of guard.
The chairman of the European Council Pole Donald Tusk is leaving,
The head of the European Commission Luxembourger Jean-Claude Junker and the entire composition of the EU Executive Board,
High representative for foreign affairs Italian Federica Mogherini .
For the outside world, this is the main event. In the figurative expression of Henry Kissinger, the phone number is changing on which to call the EU.
If the appointment of the successors of Tusk and Mogherini does not depend on the outcome of the vote on May 23–26 (they are selected by the heads of state and governments), then with the successor of the junker a special story. His candidacy should also be coordinated at the highest level, but five years ago, as an experiment and the advance payment of democratization, it was decided to appoint the largest faction of the European Parliament to this position of the leader of the largest faction. In German, "Spitzandidata" (Spitzenkandidat). So Junker, a former prime minister of Luxembourg, headed the fraction of the European People’s Party (Right Center) was appointed. It is not a fact that such a scenario will happen again. The word behind the first persons of the Member States, who rule the ball in Brussels (and not at all bureaucrats, contrary to the consuming representation). One way or another, this script is formally played out.
On Wednesday evening, the hall of plenary meetings of the European Parliament in Brussels turned into a Eurovision studio. The presenters of some television channels ironically warned the audience so that they would not confuse the political competition with the singing, which was held in Israel. Six “spitzpendidates” came out on the stage from the main fractions of the European Parliament, which in turn and under the chronometer spoke on a given relevant topic: migration, unemployment among young people, climate and ecology, equality of citizens, foreign policy (mainly reduced to trade).
It seems that most of the observers came together that the main “spitzendidate”, the current leader of the legal entities in the European Parliament, 46-year-old Bavar Manfred Weber, who was little known even in Germany, but conditionally supported by the angel Merkel, did not impress. The Dutch socialist, the first deputy junker in the European Commission France Timmermans and a representative of the liberals, the EU Commissioner for competition Margrets Westager were more convincing.
But state leaders on a working dinner in Brussels on May 28 will still be decided. Many of them, like Emmanuel Macron, are generally against the system of “spitzendidates”. They have a less formal list of candidates in which former ministers and even premieres. The chosen one must arrange everyone, and this is not easy. Regional and gender balance and other nuances are added. Trading is in full swing.
In all this discussion, Russia has never been mentioned by Russia at the Eurovision Council dedicated to the main problems of Europeans.
America and China are continuous problems, which, however, is important to solve. And Russia is in any context.
Unless, in the fuse scolding the American president for a poor attitude towards Europe, Timmermans compared him to the European “friends of Putin” who wanted to collapse the EU. Usually, the leaders of the Austrian Party of Freedom, the Italian League of the North, the North Front of France, are considered to be the leaders of the Austrian Party of Freedom ... For Brussels today Russia is more likely a problem, not a chance.