Transit, but not the same

It is a mistake to consider the plans of the authorities in 2024 related only to internal processes: the beginning transit is much more associated with world politics, the political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky states, disavowing the “myth of the successor”

Photo: Newsrussia.media

I will share a thought or a guess that more and more often overcome me in observations of the power system in the country. I began to doubt that the transit of the Putin government, about which many, and I have said so correctly, has been correctly. We mistakenly consider what is happening in the Russian Federation through internal policy points. Transit seems to us related to the rest of the world only indirectly when it ends.

Today I look at it.

The myth of the successor

In the discussions about the Putin transit, there are a number of traps where the mind falls, still not really starting to think. The main trap is personalist: the myth of the "successor". This trap is not with one bottom, but with several.

The precedent of the Yeltsin project “The successor” firmly settled in the minds. In addition to the fact that he will not be attached to us (more on this), he dictates the illusion of a controlled transit of power. The Yeltsin succession erected a whole car of leadership by a media policy, under the power of which it eventually fell. But not all successions were controlled projects - Gorbachevskoye came to collapse.

And most importantly: the idea of ​​Putin’s successor proceeds from the priority of internal policy for the authorities. And this is not so.

A car of escalations

What is Putin's transit? Before answering this question, we turn to another topic - to the Kremlin machine of escalations in the world arena. Her attacks are irrational, absurd in risk and amateurism.

Even the rhetoric of the “piracy of Russia” seems flattering: piracy is a qualified profession that requires knowledge in intercontinental communications, marine combat and risk insurance. We do not expect anything like that from the Kremlin. We see strange excesses of the system within the country and in the world arena. The most dangerous international escalations. We see a policy where it is difficult to identify a course, and by many signs it is similar to a spontaneous process. But what exactly is the process?

It would seem that based on bureaucratic logic during the transit of power, one should abandon the entire annoying world community and their population. The most aggressive creatures, hatching offspring, muffle instincts so as not to interfere.

But we see the opposite - there are more and more escalations, and they are more stubborn, as if the Kremlin itself is looking for difficulties.

The global presence platform

Many agree that the Kremlin regime is included in the transit strip, but make two key errors. The Kremlin is attributed to the Kremlin domestic political priorities and see the engine of Russian politics in Putin.

Both approaches are false. The Kremlin is absorbed in another matter - the transit of the Russian system from regional to world statehood. In the global platform of presence, seeping and influence in any regions of the world. What we saw in the Donbass, in Syria or in the Tsar is not an excess of personal power. This is the National Building model of Russia.

The Kremlin is absorbed in another matter - the transit of the Russian system from regional to world statehood. In the global platform of presence, seeping and influence in any regions of the world. What we saw in the Donbass, in Syria or in the Tsar - this is the National Building model for Russia

The brightest example of such actions and their landfill since a long time is Ukraine.

This can be called the development "outside." The search for different detachments of people (not necessarily the Wagner PMC or the Olginsky trolls) of the limits of world permeability - and it is really great in this multiplobality. The internal development is now small, and it was left in the care of propagandists, the FSB and tax authorities. The main thing was the world, but strange, abnormal world.

The system builds itself according to the patterns of its world dreams. The Kremlin firmly knows that Russia has “global interests”. So firmly that these interests are poorly pondering. What did Putin look for in Madagascar ? What is looking for in the Tsar ? What in South Africa and Sudan? Who needs this stuffy perennial unpromising fuss with Ukraine? The fuss that draws the people of both countries, repulsing the sense of their homeland and borders in them. Five years ago, for the sake of a minute (black!) World glory, Russia has been questioned for a long time to question its state borders. Today, its citizenship is in question. First, we distribute the passports to the Russian-speaking Donbass only because they do not speak Ukrainian. Further, of course, their families. And further, and further - to everyone who was born in the Crimea. Either he left there, or just drove there ... The concept of national citizenship as such is erased. But this is natural, since the system builds itself outside. She is a citizen of the world, a furious lost cosmopolitan.

Country as a distant rear

Take a look at the arrangement of internal Russia - in addition to the ways necessary for global operations, everything else is neglected. This is what the far rear looks like with the development of the offensive - generals are not interested in garbage left by the army behind. The cleaning of the rear is not their business.

Hence the wild chaos of domestic policy. The reason is not that the power is supposedly weak and is not able to suppress for the sake of "restoring order." Not at all - but the place of application of her forces is not in Russia. She needs order in Syria, in Venezuela, in Lugansk - all her attention is concentrated there. But not in the walking square of the city of Yekaterinburg. And temples are just a way of marking heights.

The reason is not that the power is supposedly weak and cannot suppress for the sake of “restoring order”: the place of application of its forces is not in Russia. She needs order in Syria, in Venezuela, in Lugansk - all her attention is concentrated there. But not in the walking square of the city of Yekaterinburg. And temples are just a way of marking heights

Putting to the post of mayor of St. Petersburg, worthless Beglov, looks crazy - madness and is from the point of view of the priorities of internal development. And when turning the country, there is nothing special here. The exoskeleton of world influence is being built, where the rules dictate the tasks of construction. Such a fragile knee of exoskeleton, like an eternally displeased Peter, should be controlled. But controllability no longer requires stability - it is abnormal: the city on the Neva as a fragment of an exoskeleton. The passport of the Russian Federation is now worthy of any functionary of this global business. What else will require the process is unclear.

World power

People at the head of the country consider the state of themselves and follow the course of transforming power from intrarania to the world. Their bet is world Russia. We will free ourselves from the torment of the interpretation of Putin’s psyche. Interpretations of his KGB-naked past, as well as his (dubious) “Russian nationalism”-circular paths to the question. Putin loves to repeat the Solzhenitsyn phrase about the "Arrangement of Russia". But the Kremlin’s will is aimed at arranging its world role, and you should not wait for this goal to suddenly disappear.

The “world isolation of Russia”, which is scared of us, is excluded for the Kremlin itself - the system is inseparable with the world, in it it is looking for and finds resources. From the world by ambition, Russia turns into a state -like infrastructure of world influence. Without becoming, however, a well -controlled authoritarian state.

We are talking about a strategic promotion system, far from the borders of the Russian Federation. This is a globalist restructuring of power. The system in its world role is looking for and finds the foundation of power over Russia. It is clear that protest sentiments, although important for the system, are considered by it as sand in gears, dangerous only for the consumption of spare parts.

With world activity, the system has no internal competitors. People in Krasnoyarsk will not require the Kremlin to adjust the summite of the summit with Trump. People in Arkhangelsk do not insist on peaceful negotiations with Zelensky. Inside the country, far into global intrigues - a vacuum of ideas about the world. This vacuum gave the Kremlin maneuverability and mandate for expansion.

The root cause

The statehood of the Russian Federation was rebuilt into the ensemble of global penetration projects - Ukraine acted for Moscow both as a training ground and as a stimulus of such development. Project mutations lead the Kremlin outside, to the abnormal world of the 21st century. Here the real transit of the system, which began around 2008, flows here, almost simultaneously with the global financial crisis.

Before the crisis in the Kremlin, they still dreamed of acceleratedly modernizing the state. But it quickly became clear that the internal development strategy does not work. She did not fit into the pace of global restructuring.

The outcome of transit

I often turned to the idea that the system of the Russian Federation is something global. This is one of the central ideas of Hifter, I developed it in the book "Irony Empire." But I also traditionally thought the problem of the transition of power from the Putin team to the future. In isolation from (not quite clear to me) the global identity of the system.

The most difficult question is to understand: how will the identity and world ambitions of the system will eventually affect the outcome of transit? Whoever replaces whom is curious, but not so important. Selflessly say something for sure here. But today we can assume something arising from our reasoning.

Official ideologists often express imperial fantasies and expansionist motifs, but the system does not have anything for this. Russian transit rates are high, but they are not “preparation for war”, but the device of the new world identity of Russia

First. The process of globalization of the system is uncontrollable and - in this sense, we are uncontrollable by the country's leadership. Thus, we are also uncontrollable Russian transit of power. The selection of successors to Putin will happen and seems to be carefully going on, but it does not have the main value either for the configuration of transit, or for its results.

The current president will not be able to take in his own hands neither transit, nor even the selection of the candidacy of his successor. He is one of the actors of the process, the criteria of which is not determined by him. The global transit of the system is already too many, plural and draws a lot of interesting things into the composition so that they will evade someone to dispose of their future survival.

Official ideologists often express imperial fantasies and expansionist motifs, but the system does not have anything for this. The rates of Russian transit are high, but they are not “preparation for the war”, but the device of the new world identity of Russia. Portal to the abnormal world. The policy of Moscow is abnormal, but it has a chance, coinciding with the turbulent mainstream, to cross the threshold of the new state of the world, where the previous norm will not be so important.

The probability of turning

Of course, politics matters, and one can imagine an unlikely scenario where Putin could partially regain control of the success of the succession. But this requires a number of truly revolutionary steps from him. He would have to insist on the “national” turn of the Russian system, transferring political accents from the global scene to internal development. Turning the power apparatus to the problems of building a constitutional state and domesticating politics.

But such a scenario is seen, alas, utopian. Not to mention the extreme risk of “returning home” for Putin personally.

The opinions of other experts on the problem-2024 Read here .