United Russia's prospects in the elections in the most opposition regions are still unclear / Andrey Gordeyev / Vedomosti

On Sunday, United Russia will hold primaries for the autumn regional elections. Due to the party's declining popularity, changes have been made to the usual procedure in some places. For example, in Khabarovsk Krai, where LDPR member Sergei Furgal won the 2018 gubernatorial elections, the selection of candidates for the regional and city Dumas will take place on the basis of the public movement Time of Change, created a month ago by United Russia members.

One of the most difficult regions was the Irkutsk Region, headed by communist Sergei Levchenko. Irkutsk Mayor Dmitry Berdnikov withdrew from the primaries for the City Duma elections on Wednesday, telling the IrCity news agency that he would run as an independent candidate. This decision was the result of a conflict with the chairman of the regional legislative assembly, Sergei Sokol. Currently, the mayor is elected from among the city duma deputies, but on April 25, the legislative assembly adopted in the first reading a bill on a city manager, who will be appointed by a commission of representatives of the governor and the legislative assembly.

The situation in the Irkutsk region was supposed to be discussed at a meeting with the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, on Thursday, a person close to the administration knows: "The mayor was offended by the bill on the city manager, although it was not initially planned to be adopted finally, and he took about 90 people away from the primaries." It is not yet clear whether radical decisions will be made or whether they will try to resolve the situation in another way, but "the crisis before the elections is obvious," the source says: "This split helps the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - they have a plan to form a majority in the city council and elect their own mayor, and the authorities are not ready for this, especially since there are gubernatorial elections next year." Berdnikov did not answer Vedomosti's calls.

In Irkutsk and Khabarovsk, the situation is difficult for the party, confirms Deputy Secretary of the General Council of United Russia Viktor Seliverstov: "In Irkutsk, we will nominate some people through primaries, and some through a conference, this is allowed by the charter. There, we expect to receive at least two-thirds of the mandates." In the Khabarovsk Duma, according to him, the party hopes for at least half of the seats. As for the conflict with Berdnikov, it is "important for him to get a city council that will elect him," and the party's current task is to elect a city council, not a mayor, explains Seliverstov.

The ratings of United Russia in the Irkutsk Region and Khabarovsk Krai are indeed low, and the anti-rating has accumulated a large one, which is shown by both recent polls and the results of the past elections, says political scientist Alexander Pozhalov: "In protest regions, an early start of the campaign under the flag of United Russia can be a problem for the candidates in power: the emotional discontent with the unpopular decisions of 2018 associated with the party is too fresh." Therefore, there is an attempt to minimize the use of the party brand, including at the primaries stage, the expert notes: "In Khabarovsk Krai, following the experience of Moscow in 2014, they began to hold primaries under the brand of a public project, and to reduce the party factor, they increased the number of majoritarian districts. In Irkutsk, it is apparently more important for Berdnikov to hold on to the post of mayor and hold a friendly pool of candidates, even if they are not from United Russia." Therefore, it may even be safer to run as an independent candidate, otherwise he could be accused of being a candidate from the party and helping its competitors in the districts.”

There is no direct connection between the presence of an opposition governor and conflicts within United Russia; everything depends on the quality of local intra-party management, Pozhalov believes: “In Khabarovsk Krai, non-partisan primaries should reboot the rather weak leadership of the branch and prevent an alliance between the LDPR and the CPRF in the districts. And the Irkutsk case is more likely connected with weak political management on the part of the outsider Sokol, who was delegated there with an eye on the future governorship, but, as is already obvious, was not accepted by a significant part of the local elites.” At the same time, acute conflicts within the ruling party also arise where the governor and the parliamentary majority are from United Russia, for example in Sevastopol, the expert notes: “There, in essence, external management of the branch had to be introduced, and many deputies from both conflicting teams were cut off from the primaries – [Governor Dmitry] Ovsyannikov and [former speaker of the Legislative Assembly Alexei] Chaly.” In places where the branch is strong, even technocratic governors, who initially intended to run for office independently, eventually leaned toward party nomination, as happened with the acting Lipetsk governor Igor Artamonov, Pozhilov sums up.

United Russia primaries to be held amid internal conflicts