In the search for degrees of freedom

Ahead of the times when to release steam and share responsibility will be the best solution for the beneficiaries of the regime than “twisting of the nuts”. Democrats need to prepare for a conversation with the authorities from the perspective of the owner of a moral advantage, which is increasing the response among voters.

Arkady Yankovsky

The inevitable metamorphoses at the very top of the authorities, which have existential causes and tectonic consequences, are always felt in advance - both in elites and in the advanced part of civil society. This is a postulate.

The fact that we are called today is called the intended transference of power has become not only the expected thing in itself, but also the factor in the influence on the behavior of many subjects of the political scene.

Without a doubt, the people everywhere ripen the discontent of the current life, the thermometer of social moods clearly reflects anxiety. But in general, the state machine is fully coping with ensuring the desired system stability.

On the surface - only a routine Russian landscape of diving individual representatives of society and the authorities. In the media - dosed injections of examples of theft and a spectrum of varying degrees of “success” of the struggle with it. The title officials are strictly distributed along the rank: some - for feeding, others - to the slaughter. The conveyor will not fail, the relations of the authorities are not as believable as she would like, but they are still digested by the population. Bread and spectacles so far on schedule!

A part of the public, aware and not forgetting historical experience, however, is gradually tuned in a military? On the example of Novosibirsk, the cities are largely indicative and advanced in terms of socio-political practices, we can consider the trends of our time, take them into account to predict the events of the future.

We highlight two observed strata: opposition activists and nomenclature along with the involved business. Without surnames.

So, first, a look at our non -systemic opposition with interspersed into it of semi -system elements. The gaze dwells on the fresh initiative of activists: the so -called city assembly designed to organize caring citizens of all stripes to confront the mayor’s imitation elections.

The specific problem of the agenda is the election of the mayor (more precisely, an attempt to achieve at least a noticeable influence on his upcoming behavior in the inevitable re -cadence) highlights the process of the sequential formation of the active field of folk functionaries. The action resembles the late Marine period of the formation of political actors, when from the disparate elements of the dissatisfied public, painted in all kinds of ideological colors, the force was born, with which the extinct nomenclature was forced to first be considered, and then frankly mimified.

The municipal elections of this year in Moscow will largely set a tone for a democratic opposition. Nobody canceled the temporary lag between the capital and large megacities in public trends. The current Moscow political autumn will put up the landmark of the Siberian autumn-2020-because we have ahead of the elections of city and regional deputies.

Novosibirsk can be an example of assembly of interests on a constructive basis

Today, independent social activists and their partners, in fact, begin the election campaign next year. Given the speed of changes in the country, the presence of certain related local traditions and potential leaders, Novosibirsk can become one of the centers of empirical establishment of the balance of the model plan for the authorities - an example of assembling interests on a constructive basis.

While the authorities were everywhere ignored the dialogue, intimidated and convicted. But ahead of the times when to divide the responsibility, release couples and hesitate to be the best solution for the beneficiaries of the regime than the notorious “twisting of the nuts”.

Democrats - left and right - is just right to recall the classics and prepare for a conversation with the authorities from the perspective of the owner of a moral advantage, which is increasing the response among the population.

To agree, unite and distribute forces is not the strongest side of social activists entering into politics. Almost two decades of the actual ban on public policy in the country make themselves felt. Problems and lost experience reduce chances, but do not exclude the prospects of relative successes. In addition, the situation in the camp of potential supporters becomes significant.

About them and we are talking. This is the second observed strata, in which it is still more interesting.

The protracted period of loyalty trade for the regional nomenclature is replaced by the new rules of the game, when the complete closeness of public control, pupation and dominant of unquestioning subordination of higher authorities does not ensure the preservation of the desired status quo. Moreover, from above they begin to unceremoniously punish for the lack of proper reflection of officials to the calls in the field.

The art of gaining the correct “roof” in the Kremlin corridors and the “main special services” no longer guarantees a calm life. The ability to maneuver - helping out tactics, while the strategy of survival will be the construction of a reliable structure that reflects multi -caliber arrows flying from all sides, from above and below.

The subjects of the federation are very different in resource capabilities and political weight, in terms of the ability to build the most advantageous scheme of existence for themselves. It seems that approaching turbulence will force regional elites to look for and find rallying options. Moscow will be considered a territory with strong political management, no matter how and from whom it has not formed.

The established serch centralism through the massive rotation of the governor's corps (out of 49 new leaders over the past two years, 63%were “Varangians”), it does not matter. Bureaucracy is bureaucracy, it has its own laws of survival and instincts. Often their shadow leaders, including from among those offended by the federal center.

Not so long ago, the party -prophetic articulate in the Commonwealth with the special services managed to return to the throne

The predictors of the system rolling into a tough police state are based on the experience of Latin American countries and the notorious traditional humility of our people. The arguments are not deprived of the grounds, but the risks of introducing a total “club” order for its initiators are not weighed. The consequences of such a decision, albeit distant, are unlikely to be calculated in most of the current demiurges from Old Square.

The option of allowing relative self -regulation of the system, building moderate negative feedback for well the latest history of the Kremlin inhabitants looks much more attractive. Not so long ago, the Party -Claims in the Commonwealth with the special services managed to go through the forced reform of the giant country and return to the throne. Return, preserving the influence, flavored with an unimaginable material appendage. Such luggage is not risked.

What is the result of a stabilizing balance in each case and in the whole country depends on the personalities - on their experience, courage, ties and mind. They are different and act in different conditions.

We already obviously have two opposing sides, not equal in strength, but existing in a rapidly changing environment. The cold civil war does not need the overwhelming majority of the participants in the skirmish. But the civil world at this stage is possible through the search and establishment of certain degrees of freedom.

This happens in the struggle, but otherwise freedoms are not mined.

Arkady Yankovsky, Novosibirsk public figure and ex-deputy of the State Duma, especially for Taiga.info