It's just tired - the analytical portal Polit.ru

Gleb Pavlovsky , Vladimir Pastukhov Ivan Golunov in court / AGN "Moscow" / Photo: Avilov Alexander

Only a few days have passed since the detention of the journalist-investigator Ivan Golunov, but it is already clear that something unusual happened: the journalistic community has shown itself surprisingly close and it seems that he manages to achieve what in other similar matters one can only hope. Events, however, continue, the compromise point has not yet been found.

The political scientist and journalist Gleb Olegovich Pavlovsky, the founder and head of the Effective Policy Fund, shared his opinion on the reaction of the society to the Grace of the Polit.ru.

Gleb Pavlovsky

I don’t know, and no one knows, such events occur suddenly and sometimes become historical. This cannot be predicted. There are many such events, as we all understand, and right now somewhere in Russia, I think someone is packaged in prison, throwing drugs to him. Some, as in the case of Golunov, a dose creating another level of quality of crime.

There are several circumstances here. The fact that Golunov himself was in a sense, despite the reputation of a bona fide journalist-investigator, a kind of botanist, a man who never ran, with the exception of the results of his investigations, into conflict. He is not conflict, he is not acutely political and always conscientious. At the same time, the provocation that he was subjected to was completely absurd, she promised him years, if not a decade in prison. After all, this is practically an attempt on murder, in any case for professional murder.

The fact that this happened right in the days of the St. Petersburg Forum further scaled the event that destroyed the impression of Putin’s speech, which, apparently, was waiting for this impression that they were preparing, which they prepared. So there are several events here.

Finally, I'm just tired. There was a feeling that further - more. And really it began to arise that now it could be with everyone. And here the principle of survival was hurt, and he, I think, is the main one. Not that the principle of survival is fundamental to a person in general. He is very important for us in Russia, because we hope to survive. But this hope is melting.

But the situation is not dangerous for the stability of the political system. It is dangerous for each of us, but it is not dangerous for the system. This is the paradox. And understanding this additionally excites people, because they are afraid that the system will sacrifice them. The 228th article of the Criminal Code was specially created in order to seduce the police to destroy the reputation of any person and his views for the future. Therefore, the reaction was, in fact, deeply natural. But of course, let's admit that it was corporate. That is, corporate solidarity excited in this story. This was the demand of the journalistic corporation to recognize him as protected from attacks from the middle level of the police apparatus. And, in general, the authorities in this matter sided with the journalistic corporation. Yes, it is recognized that a serious metropolitan journalist should be protected from such attacks, from which, of course, an unstable journalist outside the editorial office is not protected and not from any of the major editions. I think that this is an important circumstance, but of course it is not a democratic one, as it is not a democratic structure of our society, even civil society.

Police / Photo: Nikerichev Andrey / AGN "Moscow"

A reality is that, indeed, everyone can sometimes be in the police station for completely random reasons, and they can be tortured, they can be sent to the camp. But this does not happen in a massive order, so this is not fear, like, 1937. This is a completely different situation, it disciplines the elites and related classes. Journalists are undoubtedly an estate associated with the elite and serving the establishment.

Also, Doctor of Political Sciences, Researcher University College London, Vladimir Borisovich Pastukhov, was already enjoyed with Polit.ru.

Vladimir Pastukhov

Each time such an event takes place such as the detention of Ivan Golunov, we are forced to judge the appearance by some superficial and deceptive external manifestations. We know very little about what happened. We understand that this is a provocation, because it is worked out very rudely, a lot of violations of the law, a lot of inexplicable blunders. Now I do not take a situation in which in general it looks unlikely, but this is exactly the fact that there are objective signs that this provocation is procedural violations during detention, violations during the consideration of the case.

The question arises of what is inside. And inside, as always, the controlling role of some department is traced, which has colossal power and the ability to coordinate the work of very different institutions. Because from what is already known today, it is clear that this case began a few months ago. That at least employees, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the criminal investigators, apparently, were involved in the organization of the provocation. And the question arises, who could combine them all together, and, except about the FSB, not to think about whom. And then the question arises, why this happened in this form right now with a person who, obviously, is a public figure and which, having touched, could not expect that this would pass unnoticed.

For me, this only means that there is some qualitative change in the relationship between the authorities and the criminal structures in which intercommunication occurred. That is, from today, if you fight one way or another with criminal structures, then this is considered as anti -state activity. And accordingly, the answer does not come from these criminal structures, but on behalf of the state. And the state protects its criminal structures in the same way as criminal structures help the state realize its goals and objectives. That is, this is such a final stage of final and complete merger. What happened to Golunov is a certificate of completion of a certain process, which lasted approximately 30 years. And which ended with the fact that a political education arose, painful, which has simultaneously signs of state education and signs of a mafia organization.

Golunov’s case is not unique. It received such a resonance largely because the honor of the media community was affected. Because in any case, any reaction to this kind of arbitrariness goes into a public through a very narrow funnel of people working in the media. After all, we will never know what happened at all if someone does not tell us about this. And the error was due to the fact that, relatively speaking, they touched the nerve, hit the nerve of the public system.

Journalists at the Nikulinsky Court, where Ivan Golunov / AGN "Moscow" / photo: Avilov Alexander was delivered

In general, when something happens to journalists, if you pay attention, it always causes a slightly more active reaction than when it happens to someone else. Well, this is a feature of the profession.

But there are additional reasons. I conducted a strange comparison: people in general are accustomed to the fact that journalists are killed. This is cruel, this is bad, but we know that journalists are killed for their professional activities. And, as a rule, because they touch the criminal structures, and we know that criminal structures are responsible for them in a can. Unfortunately, this is what society is used to. Starting from Paul Khlebnikov through Politkovskaya, well, and in the end, up to the last tragedy in the Central African Republic - everything is an egregious example of this thesis.

But society is not yet accustomed to the fact that the state directly “fits” for the bandits.

That is, this case has become an informative for two reasons. Firstly, because the attack on journalists is always a zone of increased public interest, and the second, because for the first time such a frank state, sorry for the slang, fit for crime.

What is the deep meaning of this provocation? There is an absolutely understandable address group in respect of which a signal was given. This address group is an investigative journalistic community. And this is such a journalistic special forces, you see, such an Alpha group from journalism. Because in general, a journalist-investigator is a piece of goods, and in order to educate a competent journalist-investigator, you need no less effort than to raise a fighter of some “pennant” . And, in general, talented investigators' journalists will all overcome everything, they are all connected with each other.

We must not forget that Golunov is a product of the upbringing of Novaya Gazeta, which stood at the origins of investigative journalism, and at the source of which stood Shchokochikhin, whose death, by the way, has not yet been disclosed. And throughout the information that we have, its source is hidden in the same place, in a famous building opposite the demolished, then a restored monument.

Yuri Shchekochikhin / Novayagazeta.ru

In general, it was a signal of the journalistic community, and it turned out that this journalistic community has the degree of solidarity is much higher than in other groups. For comparison: a similar signal to the business community was a given business of Khodorkovsky, and the community of the artistic-the business of Serebrennikov. And there and there there were different degrees of organization and solidarity, but what happened among journalists, it simply turned out to be more powerful. And this reaction is associated precisely with the activity of all this layer.

How can this end? No one will say. In general, society has been living for, say, seven years in the conditions of a depressed latent revolutionary situation. In fact, 2012-2014 is a kind of counter-revolution that brought the country out of the revolutionary situation, introducing society into a mobilization regime of functioning. That is, people have been in the last six years in some skillfully supported state of affect. And in this state of affect, they are psychologically distracted from so many problems, each of which can become the trigger of the revolution. By the way, one of the most powerful triggers is precisely the criminalization of society, which was not born under Putin, but long before him, but just now reached a giant scale.

And no one knows in this situation, what will serve as a trigger to get out of this affected state, when hypnosis is destroyed and society will return to the point from which, in fact, it was removed, the point of the failed Medvedev perestroika.

Therefore, if you ask me whether today's situation can become a threat to political stability, then it is unlikely, because most likely this can be expected in 4-5 years. But, in principle, it is unpredictable. Any event of such a scale, if it responds with some deep processes, can become such a trigger.

These situations will appear in growing. The trend is now quite obvious, the trajectory is understandable. The authorities cannot degenerate, cannot change, cannot go to the locker room, change clothes and go out of the white and fluffy. A very serious price has been paid for stability. This price is, and it consists that power is based on a very complex support mechanism, and the key element of this support, the key element of this stability is the ability to solve many issues informally through criminal structures.

This is such a distinctive feature of the post -communist regime that we have formed, and this, say, the non -Soviet regime, which is now imposed on society. It differs from the Soviet regime, it differs from what we had seen before, precisely two features. He has no ideology. That is, he cannot rely on ideology, even on such a collapse as communism in his terminal stage of the 70-80s. And not having the opportunity to lean on ideology, he has no choice but to try to lean on some archaic social institutions, primarily on criminal ones.

After all, well, what did we, actually watched? We observed three stages of development of this process. The first was in the late 90s-at the very beginning of the zero, when the roaming crime did everything he wanted, with a weak, fragile, lifted power. Then this power found the strength to consolidate, and the situation has changed. That is, from this moment, power began to use crime as a very important tool to solve its problems, be it domestic political goals, foreign policy goals.

For example, the story, let's say, the accession of Crimea, it will be finally decommissioned only when it turns out what role the criminal structures played along with our military and special services in resolving this issue. And I dare to assume that historians of the future will find that this role was more significant than the role of the main management of the General Staff or, at least, this Main Directorate of the General Staff solved its problems largely with the help of these people. That is, the authorities really, starting in 2003-2007, used the criminal “interface”, let's call it like that.

The exercises of the Marine Corps in the Crimea / mil.ru

And now we are going out in the third situation. From use, we came to absolute symbiosis, that is, to a certain integration, when the border itself between legal and illegal, shadow and not shadow, between crime and power, is blurred. This is, as it were, the same thing. And this trend will only develop. If it develops, this will mean that any attempt to reveal, confront, simply provide passive resistance to the mafia will be more and more suppressed by violence. If this is suppressed with the help of state violence, this will cause an oncoming increasing reaction each time.

All this is very reminiscent of driving a car with mechanics: there is always this clutch point. That is, gas-brake, gas-brake, and somewhere at the stage when you squeeze the clutch, the wheels are closed and you physically feel it. Sooner or later, the clutch of the revolutionary situation will be squeezed out in this process, and the car will go. Not a single scientist, not a single subsercomputer car will calculate you when this happens, because here so many factors plays a role that it simply is not calculated. You can just say two things: that it is inevitable that this will happen, most likely, over the next 10 years, and that the situation, such as Kolunovskaya, it may well be a trigger of some next surge that will no longer stop.