Oil is growing. Will there be war?

The United States accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers in the Oman Gulf

Two tankers - Front Altair and Kokuka Couraageus were shot down in the Gulf of the Arabian Sea on June 13 explosions on board. This happened at the exit of tankers from the Persian Gulf after passing the Strait of the Ormuzsky Strait - the narrowest part of this most important international water artery through which tankers and merchant vessels are in a continuous flow and up to 30% of the global volume of oil exports and oil products delivered to consumers to oil vessels. A month before, on May 12, in the Gulf of Persian off the coast of the UAE, there were seemingly four other tankers.

In early June, a joint investigation of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway, reported to the UN Security Council that tankers were blown up by sabotage magnetic mines, which "stick" to the steel building under, above or on the waterline. The saboteurs who established mines disappeared on high -speed boats, obviously heading to the north, towards the Iranian coast of the Persian Gulf. The holes in the corps of tankers, blown up on May 12, were not too large - the task was not to sink, but to bring a rustle. In no case, there was not a single killed, not a single tanker drowned and did not burn to the ground.

The American military investing the incident on June 13 presented photos of the side of the Japanese tanker Kokuka Couraageus-a carrier of petrochemical products with a hole on the side above the waterline and with another strange-based outflow-it seems like another magnetic min, but not exploding due to a timer or fuse. Before the experts were able to inspect this mine, the high -speed boat of the naval forces of the Islamic Revolution (Xirir), a defective mine or object similar to it, took away the speedy boat of the naval forces of the guards of the Islamic Revolution, approached the side of the Kokuka Courageous.

All this operation was removed from a great height by the American intelligence aircraft P-8A Poseidon. The American military claims that

A few hours before the attack on the tankers on June 13, the Ksir patrol boat released the anti-aircraft missile on the MQ-9 Reaper drone, but did not hit.

MQ-9 tracked the rapprochement of Iranian boats with tankers, but not the attack itself (installation of magnetic mines).

Already in the evening of June 13, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of terrorism and an attack on merchant ships.

In Tehran, all accusations rejected, announcing the "manifestation of Iranophobia."

In Moscow, the presented evidence of Iranian guilt is considered insufficient. In Europe and in America, the policies and liberal mass media are also doubtful in America and the liberal mass media, believing that Washington can deliberately provoke a conflict with Iran with the aim of a military-patriotic raising of the presidential ranking, since Trump's chances for re-election in the event of a confrontation in November 2020 with former Vice President Joe Biden do not look difficult. Trump, they say, imposed sanctions and led the United States from the Iranian nuclear transaction to provoke a conflict, and is now ready to use any preposition.

But if Trump has many faithful supporters in the United States (like opponents), then Iran has practically no friends in America, and denial simply helps poorly.

The already collected evidence of Iranian participation in attacks on tankers on May 12 and June 13 look quite convincing, if not for the court, then for the formation of a political decision.

The KSIR in Iran does not obey either the government, the president, or the parliament, but formally - only the elderly (80 years on the actual birthday) of the Supreme Leader (Rachbaru) Ali Khamenei. On the day of the attack on tankers, Khamenei met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who came to Iran with an intermediary mission to establish a dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Hamens rejected Abe: they say, it is useless to talk with despicable Americans, and we will figure it out with the sanctions.

After the explosions, the captains Front Altair and Kokuka Courageous decided to evacuate after the disaster signal. The Iranians announced that they picked up all the sailors, but the news was partly a fake: the crew of Kokuka Courageus of 21 Filipinos was on board the American destroyer Usbainbridge, and Iranians took the crew of Front Altar, including 11 citizens of the Russian Federation. Rescue vessels quickly extinguished fires on both tankers, tugboat will be discharged to the nearest port, where they are pumped out and sent for repairs.

In general, an extremely unpleasant episode, but on the occasion to the war (Casus belli) is not yet pulling, even if additional evidence of Iran (Xirir) is disclosed.

Trump loves to threaten, but he will with all his might to evade a large -scale regional war of thousands of kilometers from the United States, as it was already with the DPRK and in Syria. A significant part of his supporters are nationalists-insulation, as, indeed, Trump himself. Moreover, today America itself has become an oil exporter and does not directly depend on Arab oil.

China’s head will hurt if there are complications with export from the bay, which Trump will rather please. After the attack on May 12, Trump sent an aircraft carrier to the USS Abraham Lincoln with an escort and another 1,500 soldiers to the bay area. But for the war with Iran, it is necessary many times more: 5-6 aircraft carriers, helicopters, etc. It is necessary to coordinate the participation of different allies, including local ones, as well as the use of air bases in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, you need to collect up to 1000 combat aircraft and much more. So far, a large -scale concentration of forces and means is not observed, far from the war.

Ksir, it seems, proved that he could stealthily harm the passage of the oil flow from the region, which means that in response to American blackmailing, on increasing sanctions, you can answer with its homegrown blackmail. You can try to tear off part of the allies from the United States, depending on the oil of the Gulf of Persian, mobilize China, India and Pakistan.

Such balancing on the verge of war may even work, unless the Xirir has enough exposure to never shoot at any American.

Everything can do, but only to the first American blood, and there even Trump will have no choice.