Since 2014, Ukrainian and Belarusian migrants have been increasing less and less choose in Russia: research

The Institute of Migration Policy published research on migration processes in the post -Soviet space, from the collapse of the USSR to today. One of the main trends of recent years for Ukrainian and Belarusian migrants is reorientation from Russia to Poland and other European countries.

Russia has always been the main direction for migrants in the post -Soviet space. Ukrainians and Belarusians are attracted and still attracted by a lightweight order of stay and residence, the possibility of registering a residence permit, territorial proximity, lack of a language barrier and relatively high salaries, especially for Belarusians (Belarusians in Russia receive $ 620 on average, Ukrainians - $ 480).

Fracture 2014

2014 was a turning point for migration in the post -Soviet space.

After the annexation of Crimea and the deployment of hostilities in the Donbass, many Ukrainians stopped traveling to Russia for political and economic reasons. Although the migration flow from Ukraine has since increased significantly (for the same reasons, and in addition, due to the entry into force of the visa-free regime with the EU countries), its direction has since changed fundamentally.

If in November 2014 there were 2.6 million Ukrainians in Russia, then by November 2018 their number decreased to 1.98 million. Yes, this reduction can be partially explained by obtaining Russian citizenship, but the main reason is that more and more Ukrainians began to leave for earnings in Poland and other European countries. The country's choice was affected by the unfavorable economic situation in Russia itself.

The economic and financial crisis of 2014-2015 led to a decrease in salaries, a drop in the ruble exchange rate and a reduction in jobs. Migrants began to look for other countries for earnings. Today, research is said, Ukrainian and Belarusian labor migrants are increasingly focusing on Europe, especially on Poland.

It is interesting that the crisis temporarily affected the Central Asian migration to Russia - still the largest largest scale (now in Russia 4 million migrants from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan). In 2014, it decreased by 20-25%, but by 2018 it was almost completely restored-unlike the Ukrainian and Belarusian.

Poland is a new magnet and uses it

Every year, 200-300 thousand Ukrainians arrived from Ukraine to Poland in 2016-2017. The number of Belarusian migrants is also growing - in 2017, Polish consulates in Belarus issued more than 35 thousand working visas - twice as much as in 2016.

Poland in response reforms the legislation, reducing bureaucratic thresholds for the design of migrants for legal work. In January 2018, amendments to the Polish law on employment entered into force. Now the law admits the issuance of employment permit in order to carry out seasonal work for up to 9 months for citizens of the six countries of the Eastern Partnership, including Ukrainians and Belarusians. It is much easier to draw up this document than the usual work permit. In addition, the Polish employer can accept the labor migrant for seasonal work immediately after submitting the necessary documents and not wait for an official decision.

Migrant transfers five times more foreign investment

Migrants send their families to their homeland. Migrants of migrants are a significant part of the GDP of the countries of the post -Soviet space, especially Ukraine. And this percentage is growing every year.

In the first seven months of 2018, labor migrants transferred $ 6.35 billion to Ukraine - this is five times more than direct foreign investment in the country during this time. A third of all money transfers of migrants is sent to Ukraine from Poland, in second place Russia (14.6%).

In Belarus, migrant translations are 2.2% of GDP according to 2017. This is twice as much as in 2008. In Ukraine, money transfers of migrants in 2017 amounted to 10.8% of the country's GDP. This is almost three times more than in 2008.

Moreover, official money transfers are only part of the actual amount of funds entering the country from migrants. Outside, funds directed through informal channels remain.

The frightening decline of the population

The population of Ukraine and Belarus is constantly declining. And this also naturally affects migration indicators.

So, over the past 15 years, the population of Ukraine has declined by 10 million people - to 42.3 million people (data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine take into account residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but do not include residents of Crimea). Despite the fact that after the collapse of the USSR, the population of Ukraine grew up a little - people from the Russian North, the Far East and Kazakhstan rushed to Ukraine, ethnic Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars returned to their homeland from other republics. But already in the mid-90s, due to the difficult economic situation, the population began to quickly decline, and in 2014 the population decline acquired enormous scales.

In Belarus, the tendency of population decline is not so critical, but also serious. As in Ukraine, the population of Belarus after 1991 increased, but here in the mid-90s, changes were for the worse. According to official statistics, over the past 15 years, the population of Belarus has declined by 700 thousand. At the beginning of 2018, 9.5 million people live in Belarus.

If the indicators of migration, fertility and life expectancy will remain unchanged, then by 2050 only 32.9 million inhabitants will remain in Ukraine, 8.5 million in Belarus.

Svetlana Kozlova, "MediaSet", for "New"

The material was prepared on the basis of research by Irina Lapshina and Sergey Abashin made by order of the Institute of Migration Policy.