The security forces gobbled up the president

The liberal, brought to power by Autocrat, has no chance of special services: a bad lesson for Russia from Kazakhstan

Protest rallies in Kazakhstan, who passed from June 9 to 12 during the election of the new president, were brought to a qualitatively new level, and this was not done by the protesters themselves, but by the Generals of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Minister Yerlan Turgumbaev publicly admitted that there were not a thousand people detainees on shares against the regime, but as many as four thousand. In the end, 677 people were arrested, three hundred more were mined, the rest were "cleaned and released." In any case, these figures show that the protest shares on June 9–12 are the largest unauthorized protest event in this decade. Even the rallies of 2016 against the hypothetical transfer of Kazakh land for rent to the Chinese were caused by less noise.

But what is important in this story: so many public supporters of overthrowing the regime in Kazakhstan on the square of large cities simply did not go out. The police-and this has already been proven by a bunch of examples-had enough everyone in a row: old people, women, cyclists, people who (haha, what irony) went to the polls. People were pulled from shops in parks and from armchairs in summer cafes. They were taken to other cities, held in inhuman conditions, and released (“protocolized”) only after the personal shout of the newly elected President Tokayev.

In addition, for the first time in the history of Kazakhstan, a preventive stripping of an entire city was carried out. In Almaty on June 12, before the “nationwide protest” announced by a fugitive oligarch Mukhtar Ablyazov, people on WhatsApp came a massive newsletter that rioters were going to “create traffic jams using smoke bombs”, and “all roads will be blocked”. The police walked in kindergartens and demanded to call their parents to urgently take their children. All retail outlets in the city center were hastily closed, and their owners convincingly asked their customers in social networks not to go anywhere. At 16:30, an hour and a half before the action, the center of Almaty turned into a deserted ghost city, surrounded by hundreds of special forces equipped as a war. The general director of the youth information service of Kazakhstan, Irina Mednikova, left work after 18:00, and the security guard of the business center “I didn’t fall in a fainting” when he saw that there were still people in the besieged fortress.

The security forces caught up with the atmosphere of fear deliberately (in Almaty it was additionally strengthened by the memory of the uprising of students in December 1986). The management of all the country's special services is included in the Security Council, which is ruled by the resigned Nursultan Nazarbayev. Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev got a gnawed administration, which is responsible for gingerbread. But the whip is a much more powerful tool in effect, and the police, along with the national security committee, holding it tightly in their hands, is thus affirmed at the upper step of the vertical. The Council of Ministers worships Nazarbayev, but the security forces in Kazakhstan have long turned into an independent player and are able to influence events in the country without indicating the decrepiting hand of the leader.

The key task of the special services of Kazakhstan now is to show the first president that the transit of the authorities invented by him is impossible without compressing the country in a strong fist, and President number two is too intelligent.

Time is playing against Tokayev: he is not yet overgrown with “meat”, but security forces (in addition to the head of the KNB, this is also the Prosecutor General-Chekist and the former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, who gave the order to shoot at the demonstrators in Zhanaozen in 2011) work as a single mechanism. And, moreover, they intensify at the expense of the same Tokayev: the president not only reassigned Karim Masimov to the post of head of the KNB, but also gave him the foreign intelligence service. Tokaev himself can also offer little as an alternative. In an interview with the foreign media, he stated that he was ready to consider the law on permitted demonstrations (however, they are already allowed under the Constitution), and also created the Council of Public Trust - quasi -design to control representatives of civil society, which looks like a fiction even before the start of his work.

The recognition that there were four thousand detainees-this is an additional blow to the liberal President in international circles (the UN, OSCE and OSCE and OSES AMALL WITH RASE has already issued angry statements on the situation in Kazakhstan): Tokaev has a very high international authority, and the inability to agree with the protesting peacefully undermines his image of the diplomat in the eyes of foreign partners. Well, and the modest authority of the president within the country is also an additional dentist: how can it be that you, Mr. Tokaev, did not know that there were much more detainees? Why were they silent before that? You, therefore, also did not liberate, but Derzhimorda.

A week after the inauguration, the new president is inferior to security forces with a crushing score of 0: 4000. And this is an important, although a bad lesson for neighboring countries - primarily for Russia, which has yet to go through the transit procedure. Whatever note liberal comes after Autocrat to a senior post, special services will always put him sticks in the wheels, heating the summons in their interests. And this will be not only at the request of the previous leader who wants to maintain his power. As soon as he gives slack - the security forces will devour him. Just because they can-but they don’t want to do otherwise.