Konstantin Sonin: "Mosgorisbirk is going to make a mistake of historical scope"

“Once again I want to repeat - the Mosgorisbirk is going to make a historical mistake, possibly scope. As Talleyrand once said -“ This is worse than a crime. This is a mistake. "If the main candidates from the opposition - Dmitry Gudkov, Lyubov Sobol, Ilya Yashin and others who have collected the right number of signatures are not registered - a serious foundation for political instability in the capital will be laid,” the economist writes on his Facebook page.

"Opposition candidates collected a total of more than 100 thousand signatures - this is a huge number of Muscovites who directly supported the nomination of candidates. There are more these signatures than there were people at several rallies on Bolotnaya, and these are people who will feel more defrained than in 2011. Then the votes were stolen" wholesale "(more than 10 percentage points were assigned to the numbers of EP - that is, about a quarter of all the votes recruited by all the votes recruited. "United Russia" in Moscow).

In the last year, a lot of conversations appeared - supported by quite meaningful analysis - that the "social explosion" is ripening. It seems to me not the most likely script - and even just unlikely. Rather, there will be the years of more and more “alienation” of citizens from power and the emergence of a kind of “parallel power” - when citizens listen to one government on the part of the issues, and another on other issues. This is already observed now - for example, it is the FBK of Alexei Navalny that is actually a state body of the fight against corruption. Of course, he does not have his own coercion mechanism, but the authority of the FBK (not only among the population, but even inside the power structures) is higher than that of any officials.

If those whom Muscovites want to see by deputies, and, obviously, Gudkov and Sable are removed precisely because they win in their districts - will not be elected, their authority will become even higher. And this is not just “moral authority” - if, for example, there are any reasons for speeches in the city, from it, and not fake deputies, citizens will listen to. From the point of view of security, from the point of view of the stability of the situation in the capital, it would be much better if the candidates who really collected the right number of votes were registered.

An additional problem - an additional “detonator” - with the removal of opposition candidates is that without them it will obviously have to falsify the final results. The number of Muscovites, annoyed by the withdrawal of the candidates for whom they signed the sheets, is enough to ensure the victory to “any other than EP”, as it was in the spring elections of governors in several regions. I already wrote that in the elections in the 45th district, I support Valery Kasamar, but, of course, I see no reason for her to participate in the elections if Ilya Yashin, who collected the right number of signatures, will be shot by the election commission. It was quite possible to fight Yashin in the ballot. Without Yashin, this is a practically guaranteed defeat from "any other." If the election man turns this into a deliberately losing game, there is no need to participate in this.

And again - I hope that common sense will prevail and will be registered with opposition candidates. No need to lay bombs under political stability. "