Zelensky will gain full control over the Rada for the first time in history: what next

Volodymyr Zelensky has set a new historical popularity record — his party, Servant of the People, is gaining more than 40% in the Verkhovna Rada elections. Taking into account single-mandate deputies, it can obtain an absolute majority and, for the first time in the history of the Ukrainian parliament, form a government on its own — without the need to create a coalition with other parties. The record results give Zelensky a complete carte blanche, which he, at least in words, intends to use to carry out structural reforms in the economy.

• As of 10:00 Moscow time, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine has processed 46.22% of the ballots. Zelensky's Servant of the People party is leading with 42.35% of the votes, followed by the pro-Russian Opposition Platform - For Life bloc of Vladimir Putin's godfather Viktor Medvedchuk with 12.8%. In addition to them, Petro Poroshenko's European Solidarity (8.7%), Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (8%), and Golos (6.43%) of Okean Elzy band leader Svyatoslav Vakarchuk are also entering the Rada.
• According to the results of the national exit poll conducted by three of the largest Ukrainian sociological services, the voting results will remain approximately the same, but the result of “Servant of the People” should be higher (44.2%), and “Opposition Platform” and “Batkivshchyna” – lower: 11.4% and 7.4%, respectively.
• We wrote about the programs of the parties that entered the Rada, their attitude towards Russia and plans for resolving the conflict in Donbasshere .
• Half of the 450-seat Ukrainian parliament is formed based on the results of the vote on party lists. Another 225 deputies (minus 19 deputies from districts of the Donbass territories not controlled by Ukraine) are elected in single-mandate constituencies. Here, Zelensky's party has an even more decisive advantage, writes Interfax-Ukraine: according to the agency, Servant of the People takes 115-120 mandates in the districts.
• If the forecasts come true, Zelensky's party will receive from 235 to 245 mandates in the new Rada. This is more than the 226 needed to form a government. This is the first time this has happened in the history of the Ukrainian parliament. Before this, the winner of each election had to form a coalition with one of the parties that got into the Rada, for which the latter received seats in the government and parliamentary leadership. The most likely coalition partner for Servant of the People would be Holos. Yesterday evening, Zelensky offered to negotiate with Vakarchuk, who offered to wait for the final results - now, perhaps, negotiations will not be necessary.
• Zelensky's party already has an unofficial shortlist of candidates for prime minister, which Ukrainian media outlets call a "list of technocrats." Zelensky described his candidate for prime minister as an "absolutely professional" and independent economist who has never been prime minister, speaker, or leader of a faction in parliament.
• The most likely candidate is considered to be the representative of Ukraine in the IMF, former deputy head of the National Bank Vladislav Rashkovan. His economic plans can be found in the program article that Rashkovan published in the Novoye Vremya publication on the eve of the elections. The economist promises structural reforms for Ukraine, which should ensure GDP growth of 4-7% per year. The main tasks are to increase the quantity and quality of labor resources, increase labor productivity, create domestic demand, develop competition and attract transnational corporations to the country.
• Members of Zelensky's team have already begun holding consultations with businesses and in their conversations promise to "maximize the majority" and carry out reforms.

What happens next?

Ukrainian political scientists interviewed by The Bell agree that Zelensky's record results are a carte blanche for a completely independent course and a guarantee of decisive influence on parliament and the government. This support may be maintained if the reforms are successful, says political scientist Vadim Karasev.

However, it is difficult to judge the seriousness of Zelensky's intentions in the economy based on his actions in the first two months of his presidency. And the searches that took place three days before the elections in the Ukrainian office of the international metallurgical company ArcelorMittal alerted the business community. Igor Kolomoisky, who is considered to be connected to Zelensky, laid claim to Arcelor's main Ukrainian asset.