All this nonsense

Underground Russia cycle

All this nonsense.

Research on what Russia is sitting on

Project team, July 25, 2019

The Russian trading platform in Darknet has become a world leader in drugs. The first study of transactions at the largest illegal electronic platform in Russia showed that the demand for drugs in Russia is growing confidently. A particularly dangerous trend - the consumption of new synthetic substances that is dangerous to the body and psyche increases.

The editors of the Project negatively refer to drugs and does not encourage their use. The material was prepared with the aim of informing readers about the existence of the problem of drug use. In order to comply with the legislation, some names and names of the heroes of publication are hidden.

Drug trade is a shadow and profitable business. Ten years ago, it mainly took place by the classic method “from hand to hand”, when the seller and the buyer met in the real world in one way or another. After 2012, drug trafficking began to go on the Internet, or rather in its shadow part - Darknet. In 2012, the first specialized Internet forum in Russia appeared, at which people through encrypted letters first began to sell drugs to each other-RU____. Thanks to this, data on the scale of business have become available for analysis. “Project”, using specially designed software algorithms, analyzed the data “G ____” - the largest Russian trading platform for the sale of drugs - and figured out how this market works.

Dictionary

Trade platform

“G ____”- ​​trading platform in the Darknet. He plays the role of an intermediary between drug sellers and their buyers. The site stores in the public domain data on all goods, users and transactions that we collected using special software codes (parsers).

“Tree” (“Bookmark”), “Kladman”, “Prikop”, “Magnet”

Drugs (and other goods) on “G ____” are sold using “bookmarks” (or “treasures”). The seller packs the goods in a vacuum package, wrapps it in island and lays in an inconspicuous place. The bookmark can be buried in the ground (“Prikop”), primed to some kind of metal surface (“magnet”) or simply hidden in a not very highlighting place (“cache”). People hiding "treasures" are called "nasaders." The “treasure” with a significant number of drugs, which is taken for further work of the “nuclear”, is called the “master class”.

Types of purchases

There are two types of purchases on "G ____". Instant sentences are "treasures" that are right now in the city. Having bought such a position, a person will immediately receive a drug address. It was on instant offers that we established the total cost of the “treasures” in the country and considered prices. The second type of purchases is a pre -order. The seller will make the “bookmark” when issuing pre -order only after all the details are discussing with the customer.

"Shops" (sellers)

The site itself does not sell drugs, it is done by "shops" that act as sellers of substances. Each “store” pays the rental fee-a contribution for the use of its darkennet-infrastructure. The starting fee for opening the store is $ 300. The monthly fee depends on the “service plan” that the “store” will choose: ordinary, trusted or top -end. Ordinary “shops” pay monthly $ 100, entrusted to this add another $ 1000, for which they rise higher in search queries on the site. There are only 20 top places, an auction takes place for them every month. Top shops in the general search results will always occupy one of the first 20 places won at the auction.

Reviews

After the purchase, the user has the right to leave a product review within 24 hours. This allows you to evaluate the quality of dealers, which in an anonymous environment is not so simple. Negative reviews, as in any “white” service, help customers identify bad goods and unreliable sellers.

Reviews are not all sales. Many buyers simply do not leave them. Representatives of the stores with whom the Project communicated, stated that people leave reviews only in half of all cases, so if they want to calculate the estimated number of transactions on G ____, the number of reviews can be multiplied by two.

Commission of the site

"G ____" takes the commission from each transaction. The size of the commission depends on the amount of the transaction. According to the site site, the commission looks like this:

• 5% commission for transactions up to 200,000 rubles
• 3% commission for transactions from 200,000 rubles to 1.000,000 rubles
• 2% commission for transactions from 1.000,000 rubles to 2.000,000 rubles
• 1.5% commission for transactions from 2.000,000 rubles

Roulette

When the user makes an order, he has the opportunity instead of the traditional ways to pay for a “roulette”. To do this, the user from his account buys chips and participates in a draw. If you are lucky, the user will receive a purchase for the purchased number of chips, and the store must give him the address. If not, the site takes money from the account. It is impossible to assess the amount that the site receives in this way.

Stress fines

The site acts as a referee in disputes of a client and a store and can financially punish stores for violation of the rules. For example, if the client was replaced by the goods, or the bookmark was made near state institutions, and the store does not agree with this, the site moderator has the right to intervene in the dispute. According to the results of the proceedings, the site can write a fine to the store. The size of the fines varies from 50 to 500 thousand rubles, with strong violations, the site can completely close the store. The size of the venues of the site from fines is also impossible to estimate.

Payments to “guarantors” “guarantors” are people who are responsible for honest purchases on pre -order and control the receipt of the goods by the buyer. Three such people work on the site, they take a commission for their services. Part of the commission goes on the site itself, the rest is the salary of employees. The receipt of the site under this article cannot be evaluated.

As we thought

The prevalence of drugs

To analyze what drugs the Russians buy at the Darknet, we were starting from the reviews left. We have collected reviews for all drugs found in G ____ stores for the entire time of its existence.

In total, approximately 3 million reviews were collected left from the beginning of 2016 to June 2019.

The cost of "treasures"

To calculate the total cost of “treasures”, we added prices for each of the instant offers that were on the site in June 2019. It should be noted that behind one “laying” (sentence), as a rule, more than one “treasure” is hidden. “Melpins” are made in each area from 5 to 10 “bookmarks”. The exact number varies from the store to the store. Based on this, the real total cost can be 5-10 times more than the figure we discovered.

The number of registered users

Through the console of the web developer in the Tor browser on the G ____ website, each user who left the review under any product is visible his serial number. One of the new buyers with a minimum number of transactions, this number was more than 2.5 million. This suggests that at the time of writing this article on the site there were more than 2.5 million registered accounts. Of course, not for every account there is a specific person, some people may have several of them.

Prices for drugs

We analyzed prices based on instant offers in “G ____”, as large batches of drugs are mainly purchased by pre -orders. In order to find out the cost of substances, we considered the median for all instant offers in the recalculation of 1 grams for each type of drug-marijuana, hash, mifedron, alpha-pvp, amphetamine and cocaine.

Earnings of the site

To calculate the earnings of the site, we downloaded data about all users according to their nicknames in reviews. Thus, we learned the average check, the number of transactions and the date of registration of each person who at least once left the review on the site. In total, we collected 393,305 accounts of people who exactly made on the website of the transaction.

After the collection, we multiplied the average check of each user by the number of his transactions and received the money that he contributed to the site. Then they multiplied the commission of the site by the corresponding average check of the user and received its earnings on a particular buyer. They did this for all collected accounts and received the estimated turnover of “g ____” (the real turnover is most likely significantly higher: again, due to the fact that not all users leave reviews and can be recorded).

Using the analysis of profiles, we know the date of registration of each user on the site. Thus, we found out how many users came to the site over time. We tied the total amount of the commission to the number of new users for each month and took the last five months of 2019. Thus, we approximately learned how the earnings of “G ____” changed on the commission over time. To calculate the rest of the site’s earnings, we set the number of stores working on the site and the total number of trusted sellers. Then we multiplied these figures by rental boards of $ 100 and $ 1000, respectively. Also, do not forget that for the opening of the store the seller pays $ 300. We do not know the dynamics of changing the number of dealers, so we can only say that for all the time at the starting contributions, the site received more than 63 million rubles. Information on the cost of places from the auction for the first 20 places in the search results was provided to us by one of the sellers. According to him, this figure is stable and does not change much (it is equal to 68 million rubles per month). We also took it into account when calculating the earnings of the site for each month of 2019.

From the sources of income we have unaccounted for: “roulette”, fines, and payments to “guarantors”.

The study was conducted in conjunction with the Drugstat telegram channel.

A platform that cannot be called

The first large Russian drug for the sale of drugs in the darknet was RAMP - Russian Anonymous Market Place. In 2017, the Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that the site was closed "as a result of operational-search actions." Then “g ____” and began to gain popularity. This site has long and much surpassed RAMP on circulation and the number of users.

How the site grows

The number of new users per month

Picking of the number of users of the site - summer of 2017 (closing RAMP) and the beginning of 2019

In total, 2.5 million accounts were registered on G ____, 393,000 of them made at least one purchase for all the time. The number of users is growing every month.

Now “G ____” is a possible world leader in underground drug trafficking. By the number of users, she was already ahead of Alpha Bay, the largest of the ever existing Western sites (closed in 2017, in time coincided with the closure of RAMP), which had about 400,000 registered users at the peak of its work.

According to our calculations, from 2016 to 2019, users contributed 64.7 billion rubles to “G ____” ($ 1 billion for June 2019). Here, “G ____” is also ahead of the planet - the total volume of transactions that passed through the West Darknet from 2011 to 2015 - $ 191 million (12 billion rubles for June 2019). At the same time, it is difficult or impossible to evaluate some articles of “g ____”, which means that in reality the earnings of the site are even more.

Most of the assortment of "G ____" is occupied by drugs. In addition, it sells fake bills, hacker services, fake documents and other prohibited goods. “G ____” itself does not sell anything, but provides a web environment for transactions between the buyer and seller (“store”). In fact, it is an IT product with a high level of encryption and anonymity.

The income consists of several sources: commission from each transaction, rental stores and purchases of places in search results (auctions).

What is the income of the site

Revenues for 5 months of 2019

In 2019, the site has earned

1.4 billion rubles.

The country of treasures

Trade is arranged as follows: the user is registered for free on the site site and makes purchases online. In Russia, the system of the so -called "bookmarks" is popular (see the Dictionary of terms). The user selects the goods on the site and pays for it, the seller in response sends the coordinates of the place where the buyer can pick up the goods. Transactions on the site are made through a QIWI wallet or using bitcoins (the second method is more frequent).

Having received the coordinates, the buyer picks up the “treasure” and can, if desired, leave a review on the site confirming the purchase.

The number of "bookmarks" is not much affected by the season. The graph shows how, for example, in St. Petersburg, the type of bookmarks changes depending on the season, but the total number changes slightly. In winter, “magnets” are popular (the earth freezes, a lot of snow), in the summer they are replaced by “pinks”.

"Bookmarks" in summer and winter

The ratio of the type of bookmarks in February and May 2019 (amphetamine and alpha-PVP)

The season does not affect the number of "bookmarks"

According to the data on June 1, 2019, in the form of “bookmarks” alone, all types lay drugs for at least 150 million rubles ($ 2.37 million), almost a third of this amount was “bookmarks” with cocaine, the most expensive drug. In second place in St. Petersburg-there for customers were hidden drugs for 66 million rubles ($ 1 million).

The total amount of “treasures” hidden in Russia as of June 1, 2019 - 348 million rubles ($ 5.52 million). In total, in Russia, in the form of “bookmarks” now there are at least half a ton of narcotic substances (645.6 kg). In addition to the obvious Moscow and St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Krasnodar and Novosibirsk, the weight and cost of the “treasures”, are the lead.

The total cost of treasures by cities

As of June 1, 2019, million rubles

The total cost of treasures in all cities

348 million rubles.

How shops work

Due to the fact that the business trading business is illegal, the product of the goods from the supplier to the client is very peculiar. The store has a whole team. For obvious reasons, the team members are almost never found in offline, everything is built at anonymous correspondence and encrypted communication channels.

As the project manager told the project, one of the chain options looks like this: the supplier purchases the goods with a large wholesale in Europe or the Baltic states and illegally imports it to the country. Further, in a agreed place, he leaves a large batch of a drug. This batch is taken by the store employee, he is called the "Exploration". He faces a batch for retail sale and makes a “master layer” for “nuclear”, which are already making bookmarks in their areas. With the new batch of drugs, the cycle is repeated again.

If the drug is produced on the spot, a chemist or “Grover” (a person who grows marijuana in domestic conditions) independently “master”, he is selected by the driver (if the drug is produced in another city), reports the “farmen”, and he already distributes the goods between “nerds”.

One of the most important positions in the store is the operator. He coordinates the work of all team members, solves controversial issues with clients.

As the project and co -founder of one of the stores told the project, one of the key factors of long and successful work of the store is data protection and information security. Employees always have a plan of action in case of detention of one person from the product delivery chain.

The country of synthetics

What drugs do Russians use? An analysis of customer reviews (that is, confirmed facts of purchase) allows us to identify the prevalence of all prohibited substances, as well as their binding to the point on the map of Russia.

Most often, Russians buy the following drugs:

Mephedron

A synthetic eiforrhea that causes a strong psychological dependence. Previously, legally sold under the guise of “bath salts”, belongs to the category of synthetic cathinons.

Hashish

The pressed resin of Cannabis. It has a high content of cannabinoids.

Alfa-PVP

Synthetic stimulator from the category of synthetic cathinones. Causes strong psychological and physical dependence. It has strong neurotoxicity. The drug has very small dosages, which greatly increases the risk of overdose.

"Bumps" or "boshka"

The inflorescences of female cannabis plants, containing the most active hemp substances - cannabinoids.

Amphetamine

A synthetic stimulator that causes strong psychological dependence and has negative physical consequences with prolonged use.

Cocaine

A drug made of koki plant leaves. The nervous system stimulator can cause physical dependence.

The Project compiled a drug remission card in the 20 largest Russian cities. The conclusions are as follows:

Contrary to widespread opinion, heroin almost left the Russian online market. Its share is an insignificant 0.3%, so it is not even taken into account in the study. This trend is confirmed by Alexei Lakhov, the deputy head of the Humanitarian Action charitable organization: “The Old Guard” in the person of Consumers of Heroin and Metadon becomes less and less-someone moved to NPCs (new psychoactive substances), someone died, someone in prison, someone in remission. ” According to the Ministry of Health, for example, in 2017, the number of people with opioid (heroin) dependence was really reduced.

What is Russia sitting on

The share of drugs in purchases for five months of 2019, %

The most popular -

Mephedron and hash

In all cities, a trend is visible to increase the share of new synthetic drugs-Mephedron and Alfa-PVP. The growth of their popularity is due to the fact that the synthesis of these drugs is quite simple and its price is low.

Изменение предпочтений по годам

Доли в покупках наркотиков за 2018 и 2019 годы, %

Доля синтетических наркотиков растет

Изначально эти виды наркотиков назывались «дизайнерскими». Это вещества, которые специально синтезируют и продают, пока те еще не вошли в список запрещенных. Чтобы получить «дизайнерский» наркотик, производители берут формулу имеющегося вещества и изменяют ее, тем самым получают не запрещенное законом новое вещество.

Тенденция к увеличению доли синтетики косвенно подтверждается и данными Минздрава: показатель по первичной заболеваемости психическими расстройствами от психостимуляторов за 4 года вырос в два раза, больше чем у любой другой группы веществ.

Первичная заболеваемость психическими и поведенческими расстройствами, связанными с употреблением наркотиков в РФ

На 100 тыс среднегодового населения

Источник: Минздрав России

Синтетика и стимуляторы снова в моде

Несколько лет назад российское государство предпринимало попытки бороться с «дизайнерскими» наркотиками — в народе «спайсами». Только в сентябре 2014 года от употребления курительных смесей погибли в общей сложности 25 человек, более 400 были госпитализированы. Тогда руководитель закрытого ныне Госнаркоконтроля Виктор Иванов предложил разрешить его ведомству самостоятельно включать вещества в список запрещенных без ожидания результатов экспертизы. В 2015 году были приняты поправки в закон, по которому ФСКН могла самостоятельно вносить вещества в запретный список. Эпидемия «спайсов» тогда сошла на нет, но сейчас синтетические наркотики снова вошли в моду.

На графике видно, что падает спрос на кокаин. Падение доли кокаина связано с развитием самой площадки. Дело в том, что когда даркнет-площадки открываются, первыми о них узнает обеспеченная аудитория, которая в основном покупает кокаин. Когда аудитория расширяется, кокаин вытесняют другие, более доступные наркотики. Это хорошо видно на примере Сочи — «Г____» пришла сюда в июне 2016 года, и начиная с этого времени мефедрон постепенно начал теснить кокаин.

Изменение предпочтений по годам в Сочи

Доли в покупках наркотиков за 2018 и 2019 годы, %

Дешевая синтетика вытесняет дорогой кокаин

Большая доля кокаина среди покупок — маркер экономического благополучия региона и наличия платежеспособной аудитории. Он составляет 8,7% от всех заказов в Москве, 7,2% в Сочи, 4,6% в Казани и 4,1% в Петербурге. В Сочи этот эффект, видимо, обусловлен курортной спецификой города, а также обилием там богатых приезжих из других частей страны.

Наркотик для богатых

Доля кокаина в отзывах за 5 месяцев 2019 года, %

Кокаин наиболее популярен в Москве и Сочи

Общая картина по городам:

Популярность веществ в разных городах России

Доли в покупках наркотиков за 2019 год, %

Россия наркотическая

По данным исследования, спрос на все виды наркотиков во всех изученных городах уверенно растет.

Спрос на наркотики растет во всех городах

Динамика числа отзывов по городам за пять месяцев 2019 года

Volgograd

Voronezh

Yekaterinburg

Kazan

Kaliningrad

Krasnodar

Krasnoyarsk

Moscow

Nab. Челны

Н. Новгород

Novosibirsk

Omsk

Permian

Rostov-on-Don

Samara

С.-Петербург

Sevastopol

Sochi

Ufa

Chelyabinsk

Yaroslavl

А вот как выглядит динамика роста популярности отдельных видов наркотиков.

Спрос на все виды наркотиков растет

Динамика числа отзывов по веществам в 2019 году

Спрос на мефедрон и гашиш вырос в четыре раза

Эти выводы противоречат официальным данным. По данным Минздрава России, число людей, находящихся на диспансерном лечении от наркозависимости, снижается. Это же следует и из статистики МВД: количество преступлений и людей , связанных с оборотом наркотиков, уменьшается.

Возможно, это несоответствие объясняется тем, что государственные органы занижают статистику и плохо борются с торговлей наркотиками в даркнете. Например, с 2015 года в России заведено всего 272 уголовных дела, в которых упомянута «Г____» , они включают в себя не только торговлю наркотиками, но и сбыт поддельных купюр и прочих товаров.

Другое возможное объяснение: официальная статистика не фиксирует тех, кто употребляет наркотики не системно. Дело в том, что продажа наркотиков через интернет сделала их более доступными для молодежи. Если раньше для покупки требовался знакомый дилер, то теперь наркотики время от времени может купить любой человек, владеющий интернетом. Именно эти потребители — покупающие наркотики не регулярно — не попадают в статистику, так как официальный учет ориентирован на тех потребителей, кто оказывается в больницах или наркодиспансерах с тяжелыми отравлениями или зависимостью.

Цены на наркотики

Известно, что цена на наркотики зависит от удаленности от места производства или поставки, стоимости синтеза вещества и покупательной способности населения . Том Уэйнрайт в своей книге о работе наркокартелей «Наркономика» пишет: чем дальше от источника производства наркотика, тем дороже товар, так как любая транспортировка связана с риском и дополнительными финансовыми затратами намного сильнее, чем в любом другом бизнесе.

Средняя цена на наркотики по городам России

Рублей за грамм вещества

Чем дальше, тем дороже

Если посмотреть на среднюю цену наркотиков по городам, станет более понятна наркогеография России:

Санкт-Петербург с его морскими портами, как и в 90-е, возможно, основное место импорта заграничных наркотиков. Большинство «импортных» наркотиков в Петербурге стоят дешевле всего (самое логичное объяснение — здесь самые низкие расходы на логистику). Видно, что цена многим выше в городах Урала, Сибири и Дальнего Востока: во Владивостоке, Челябинске, Омске, Перми.

Гипотеза о том, что наркотики, как в 90-х, приходят из стран Центральной Азии, не подтверждается. Например, привозной гашиш на Урале и в Сибири стоит дороже, чем в Петербурге. Это же относится ко всем привозным наркотикам.

Новые синтетические наркотики, судя по всему, производятся в лабораториях почти повсеместно. В пользу этого говорит наблюдение, что цены на альфа-ПВП и мефедрон — простые и дешевые в производстве наркотики — примерно одинаковы во всех городах.

Цены на наркотики по городам России

Цены на гашиш варьируют от 850 рублей (Петербург) до 1,5 тысяч (Владивосток). По информации от владельца крупного магазина, гашиш почти не производится в России, он привозной, точка ввоза — Петербург. Это подтверждается более высокой ценой в далеких от Петербурга городах.

Кокаин полностью привозится из Южной Америки через промежуточные остановки в Европе или Африке, и это самый дорогой наркотик в нашем исследовании. Тенденция та же, что и с прочими привозными наркотиками — дешевле всего в Петербурге, где есть крупная точка ввоза. Цена на кокаин колеблется от 8 до 15 тысяч рублей за грамм, это дороже, чем в любой другой европейской и северо-американской стране. Общий спрос на этот вид наркотика растет, но его доля в потреблении падает. Даже одно из прозвищ этого наркотика, используемое наркопотребителями, звучит как «первый».

Цены Альфу-ПВП колеблются от 1,5 до 3,5 тыс. рублей. Его синтез дешев и прост, поэтому его производят повсеместно. Есть сложности с доставкой прекурсоров наркотика в Калининград и Владивосток, от этого цены там выше.

Цена на Мефедрон колеблется от 1,6 до 3,5 тыс. рублей. Его синтезируют на месте, поэтому цены примерно одинаковы по всей стране. Есть сложности с доставкой прекурсоров наркотика в Калининград и Владивосток, от этого цены там выше.

Амфетамин большей частью производится в России в подпольных нарколабораториях. На карте видно, что самые низкие цены на этот наркотик на северо-западе страны. Вероятно, здесь сконцентрированы основные центры его производства, хотя, вероятно, на цены влияет опять же фактор Петербурга как крупной точки ввоза наркотиков. Цены на амфетамин варьируют от 1 до 1,5 тыс. рублей.

По информации владельца магазина, почти вся марихуана выращивается в России. Дешевле всего грамм наркотика стоит в Севастополе — 1 тыс. рублей. Цена в этом городе заметно меньше, чем в остальных российских городах, потому что его привозят из соседней Украины, где грамм «шишек» стоит в среднем 600 рублей. В остальных же городах цена практически везде одинакова.

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По данным нашего исследования, средний чек на площадке равен 4,5 тыс. рублей, а средняя цена грамма синтетического наркотика в два раза меньше — 1,85 тыс. рублей. Получается, типичная сделка на «Г____» — это покупка одного-двух граммов вещества, что в случае синтетических наркотиков (а именно они сейчас в моде), согласно российскому законодательству, предполагает реальный тюремный срок. Только за 2019 год через площадку прошло 850 тысяч таких сделок. Наверное, это самые важные цифры, которые нужно помнить, думая о масштабах проблем, связанных с наркотиками в России.