
Head of the International Human Rights Group "Agora"
This is no longer an act [intimidation] before the action, this is exactly the second “swamp” . The concept has changed [compared to previous protests] - raising rates. The authorities are sending a signal: the price of protest is now - a prison. Only in the yard is not 2012, when, after several soft Medvedev years, hard acceleration and searches with arrests were shock. Today, few are afraid to spend a couple of years behind bars for their beliefs.
[Regarding the prospects of the case] cases are initiated to go to court for the conviction. The organizers [protests in the criminal case] must inevitably be famous people. They cannot be organizers of protest in Moscow unknown to anyone. Therefore, we all know them. Therefore, they are under the main risk.
I did not see everything that was happening [on protests on July 27], but [from a legal point of view] of the organization of riots, there were no accurately. Participants [protests] will try to catch those who used violence - with video and other evidence. True, such was not particularly reported. The calls [to the riots] will be sought on the Internet.
The person involved in the "Swamp business"
I myself was not on the action on July 27, but I followed. This is not very similar to what was in Bolotnaya Square. Much smaller, less conflict situations. Now they [investigators] are catching some very simple stories. For example, a criminal case against a person who abandoned the urn. Well, this is a complete garbage compared to Bolotnaya. There were many such episodes.
Of course, what was July 27 is not mass riots. I studied all this in great detail during the “swamp business”. In order for the action to be considered mass riots, there must be a number of signs. For example, these actions should be aimed at disorganizing the normal activity of any institution or something like that. In addition, there should be an obvious use of violence by protesters. And this violence should go precisely from the protesters, and not when they were surrounded by a ring of police officers and people simply tried to break out. Here everything is attracted by the ears and there is no question of any riots.
It is quite obvious that it applies an article about riots in a purely political vein. This is an absolutely political story. As soon as the protest goes beyond the minimum framework allotted by power, this article is used. This is the main goal.
Another important factor seems that since the time of Bolotnaya they created a huge power machine that is interested in such matters. I am interested in creating such a summons within the authorities that all visitors do it, that all this is a Maidan. Now it seems that at the top where decisions are made, the most insane fraction wins.
It is difficult to understand what will happen next. You can't get into your mind. After all, even if all [independent] candidates were allowed, they would still not have a majority [in the Moscow City Duma]. In general, I do not understand why they [the authorities] decided to rest like that. But now they have already created a precedent when in Moscow everyone see how the authorities relate to the opinion of people. What they are doing now demotivates that part of a society that aims to do something and create in Russia. It is very clearly clear exactly who the authorities did not hear.
Mediazone editor -in -chief
Do not forget that the case of the 141st article appeared before the action on the 27th. The authorities saw that people still went outside. And if criminal cases do not scare people, you need to increase a degree. It is necessary that the detainees are detained. It is necessary for people to be afraid.
Therefore, I think, a new “swamp business” will spin. They [the authorities] see that the street activity is on the rise, and they remember the year 2012, when it was criminal cases that managed to force people to leave the street. I think they want to do the same here. The main goal of the authorities and security forces is to have a minimum on the streets. They decided that there were already too many people there. The situation is too unpleasant for them.
Perhaps now there will be less detainees than in the “swamp business”, but I do not believe that there will be no accused at all. I'm afraid we are before a new large -scale business.
From the point of view of the organization [mass riots]-it is unlikely that there will be some accusations in the near future. I do not think that the organizers can make unregistered candidates. Nevertheless, the organizers had to work with people in place.
But from the point of view of participation and calls, I suspect, the defendants in the case will appear in the very near future. I think that until the 3rd day [that is, before the date on which the new protest rally is scheduled] we will learn about some investigative actions. According to our data, they have already begun.
Judging by how the case was instituted, in one form or another, under the threat, now all participants in the action. Everyone has risks for a criminal case. I think this is the task of organs. Indeed, in reality, there were no hints of riots in this action. I can’t imagine how they are going to prove this article, realizing that the whole world knows: there were no mass riots. They could just as successfully start against the protesters of the case of genocide.
In general, I do not believe that this is a response to a new action [August 3]. It seems to me that the decision to disagree the action is made by Moscow [that is, the city hall] in one form or another, and the decision to initiate a criminal case was made much higher. This is clearly a political decision, agreed with the first persons of the state.
Pavel Merzlikin recorded