Nuclear fangs of old enemies

India and Pakistan bring the troops to a state of full combat readiness and exchange extremely sharp statements after the Indian government announced the elimination of the special status of its northernmost state Jammu and Kashmir . This huge region with an ancient and complex history, strategically located at the junction of the borders of India, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan, has been divided into several parts for many decades, it is the land of discord, attacks of militants and a border conflict between Delhi, Islamabad and partially Beijing. The state of Jammu and Kashmir is the only part of India with the overwhelming Muslim population.

The Kashmir section has never been enshrined in any official agreements, and therefore since 1947, when independent India and Pakistan appeared on the map of the world, remains a focus of tension between its states that occupy various parts. According to the results of the war of 1947-1949, India gained control of approximately two -thirds of the region, the rest of the Pakistan.

In total, in the history of the confrontation between India and Pakistan, three major wars and several smaller conflicts took place, including the First Indo-Pakistani War (the First Kashmir War, 1947-1949), the Second Indo-Pakistani War (the Second Kashmir War, 1965) and the Third Indo-Pakistani War (1971, more related to the war for Bangladesh independence ). In 1984, in Kashmir there was a poorly -intensifying border conflict on the Siachen glacier, which ended only in 2003, when an agreement on the ceasefire entered into force. In 1999, Pakistan began the so-called Kargil war , but, unlike the previous ones, it did not become truly large-scale. At the same time, the official Islamabad generally always states that his army never participated in this conflict.

In February 2019, a new escalation of the conflict took place due to the attack of the Jamma and Kashmir of the attack, which killed 45 Indian police officers, committed on February 14. In response to the attack, India inflicted an air jacket for the camp of the local attack of the local Islamabad of the Muslim terrorist group " Jaisish-Muhammad ", in the city of Balakot in the city of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan. Following this, Pakistani aviation bombed the territory near military facilities along the control line in Kashmir. Indian pilots pursued Pakistani planes, there was an air battle in which the Air Force of India and Pakistan lost one aircraft on each side.

Until now, Kashmir is actually separated by the so -called "Loc" ( LOC ) - a demarcation line drawn through the territory of the former principality of Jammu and Kashmir . This is not recognized legally, but de facto the border. Previously, it was called the “Line of the Crosses of Fire”, but was renamed the “Control line”-after the parties signing the relevant agreement in 1972, the Indian part of the principality then became known as Jammu and Kashmir, while Pakistan created its formations, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir . At the same time, part of his Kashmir Pakistan, to improve relations, handed over to China, who has his historical claims to this region - which still causes protests and a sharp rejection in Delhi. Therefore, in Kashmir there is also the so-called "Line of Actual Control" (LAC ), taking into account the current actual possession of the PRC of the Aksai-Chin region transmitted by it.

In recent decades, the Indo-Pakistani conflict because of Kashmir began to cause all greater fears due to the fact that both states created their own nuclear weapons and are actively continuing to increase their military power. The exact number of nuclear warheads available to the Armed Forces of India and Pakistan was never known. However, according to unconfirmed data, India has about 120–130. Pakistan counted at least 140 two years ago.

On August 6, the lower house of the India Parliament (Lock Sabha), following the Senate (Raji Sabha), approved the government’s decision to cancel Article 370 of the Constitution of the country, which gave the state Jammu and Kashmir a special status, and to divide it into two allied territories (having much less autonomous rights than any other Indian staff, and not governors, but directly, but directly From the capital) - on the actual Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh , a separate historical territory. Earlier in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, any laws and orders of the Federal Government of India were to receive the approval of the local legislative assembly (with the exception of defense and external relations).

Also in the Indian Constitution , article 35a still existed , which prohibits all other Indians (that is, mainly Hindu, Hinduists) from other states and territories move here, buy land and work in local authorities. In accordance with Article 35a, the Kashmirs received numerous benefits when admitting to the civil service and upon admission to state educational institutions. Now that the special status of Kashmir is canceled, the inhabitants of the rest of India receive the right to acquire property in the region and settle in Kashmir forever. It is this fact that causes the greatest anger and fears of the Kashmir Muslim majority - they are convinced that the region will soon occur and the majority of the population will be the Hindus.

Units of special police forces India in the city of Jammu. August 5, 2019

The decision of the federal government in Delhi, headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the leader of the ruling nationalist Indian Indian People’s Party (Bharatia Dzhanat Party), which now has a decisive majority in both wards of parliament, preceded a significant increase in Indian military power in the region, the commandant’s accession and blocking and blocking access and blocking mobile communications throughout the state, as well as the arrests of local political leaders. Under house arrest were former prime ministers Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims Omar Abdullah and Mehbuba Mufti. There is evidence that in Jammu and Kashmir in the last decade there was almost a third of all Indian ground forces. In addition, during July - early August, up to 30 thousand soldiers were transferred there.

On August 15, in India, large -scale celebrations are planned on the occasion of the next day of independence. According to Indian special services and police, Kashmir Muslim militants, who, according to Delhi, supports the Pakistani army, are preparing several terrorist attacks on this day, primarily in Kashmir.

Narendra Modi and his entourage say that the abolition of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir will lead to the economic prosperity of the region, the elimination of separatist and terrorist movements and the solution of numerous local social problems, primarily to the return of the home of more than 150 thousand Kashmir pandites-a special higher Hindic ethnocast group , whose members were fled from Kashmira because From the Islamist groups.

A Photojournalist Returns from #kashmir and Shared Some Pictures of the Valley. pic.twitter.com/k2c8wvug06

- Kashmir Source (@kashmirsource) August 7, 2019

However, in Islamabad and in Beijing, recently building more and more close military-political ties with each other, they consider it completely different. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan stated that he ordered all the diplomatic channels to intensify the exposure of "a cruel Indian racist regime that violates human rights." "The Pakistani army intends to firmly support the Kashmirtsev in their fair struggle for freedom, until the end, - the head of the General Staff of the Pakistani army, General Kamar Jave Badzhva, made such a statement on August 7, adding:" We are ready to fulfill our obligations in their relation. " In the Pakistani cities that there are almost million, very aggressive anti -Indian manifestations .

Anti -Indian demonstration in the Pakistani Lachore. August 2019

And the representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry Hua Chunin emphasized: "India’s actions are unacceptable and will not have any legal force for us. India continues to undermine the territorial sovereignty of China, unilaterally changing its internal legislation."

About how far India, Pakistan and China can go in its determination to defend their own innocence, and about many other aspects of the Kashmir conflict in a conversation with Radio Liberty is discussed by a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, experts of South Asia Alexei Kupriyanov :

- The Kashmir conflict is one of the oldest, complex and dangerous in the world. It can be compared with the Arab-Israeli conflict, for example. It lasts decades, then fading, then swinging again. Now again the inevitable exacerbation will follow?

- Yes, now different separatists there are activated and, most likely, mass protests will begin, including in Srinagar and in Kargil. The population of Kashmir consists of three large groups - these are Hinduists who live mainly in Jamma, Muslims living in Kashmir, and Buddhists in Ladakh. Ladakh itself is divided into two districts - Lech and Kargil. Moreover, in Leha the vast majority are Buddhists, and in Kargil -again, Muslims. It turns out, in fact, that there, the Muslim minority will be in the new allied territory with the Buddhist majority, and Muslims in Kargil are very unhappy with what is happening. Most likely, there will be protests everywhere on the streets, promotions, manifestations and at the same time strengthening terrorist activity, that is, explosions, shooting, terrorist attacks and all that spirit.

- How much in the last years in the Kashmir conflict and in general in this huge region, international terrorist Islamic movements and groups have been involved?

- I would divide international terrorist groups in relation to Kashmir into several categories. The first category is the group, as they say, a long -range radius of action, such as the “Islamic state”, the second is groups of the middle radius, such as the “Taliban”, and the third - groups of the near radius. The Islamic State is practically not present in Kashmir. They tried to create some of their cells here, but almost the same thing happened as in Afghanistan-namely, that when the Islamic State came to Afghanistan, it turned out that almost all the local, conditionally, “protest field” was occupied there. Everyone knows each other well, and when some strangers appear, it is difficult for them to get rid of. Therefore, the Islamic State, for example, in Afghanistan, is far from being as successful as in Iraq and in Syria.

In Kashmir, the situation for the Islamic State is even worse, because the territory is less, and the degree of state control over what is happening, the concentration of security forces, the penetration of special services agents into the ranks of potential terrorists, the government’s understanding itself is much higher than the level of control, any kind of, in Afghanistan. That is, it is very difficult to resist any group from the side in Kashmir. After their first action, they were eliminated, including competitors, other militants. In my opinion, they still exist there, but they do not have any influence on the situation at all.

Hindus who are not constantly living in Kashmir, now urgently leave the region just in case. City of Srinar, August 6, 2019

-And "Taliban" and "al-Qaeda"? Afghanistan is located relatively next to Kashmir.

- Afghan groups are there, but they are involved in what is happening very weakly. The Taliban is like such a Pashtun movement, and since there are no Pashtuns in Kashmir, there is no base for him. "Al-Qaeda" is generally like an umbrella structure, in itself in Kashmir it is not particularly active, but there are organizations that are somehow connected with it. Not directly, but, for example, in some cases of drug trafficking, for something else. Terrorist groups in Kashmir are precisely the Kashmir groups. That is, these are people who are based, live in Kashmir himself, they, as a rule, are ethnic Kashmiris or have some close economic, household relations with Kashmir. The most noticeable of them is Jaisish-Muhammad .

- That is, they are not for the "World Caliphate" fight?

- The people who founded it at one time went to fight against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Then they returned from there and created the Jaisish-Muhammad. They are connected with both the Taliban and the al-Qaeda, but at the same time they have their own agenda. They received joint combat experience at one time, support some connections, but this does not mean that they are subordinate to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. In general, Islamic groups in Kashmir are divided into two parts. The first group is those that advocate joining Pakistan, that is, for merging with the self-proclaimed Azad-Kashmir controlled by him.

The second group is groups that advocate the complete independence of Kashmir, that is, for creating their own, Kashmir state there. And they can often change their agenda. That is, for example, the same group can slowly migrate from one camp to another, change slogans. Those people who advocate joining Pakistan enjoy some support from Islamabad. Pakistanis claim that this support is extremely moral. And the Indians are sure that this support is directly material, that this is money, weapons and camp training camps.

- And why in Kashmir during all this time did not arise a single, monolithic front of the struggle for their own independence or for merging with Pakistan?

The Kashmir young man throws a grenade with tear gas back in Indian police. City of Srinar, May 2019

- Everyone has his own opinion on what needs to be done, everyone is fighting for financing, everyone tries to rise and drown other competitors, everyone is trying to pull people from another organization into their organization. And all this is under continuous pressure from the Indian police, special services and taking into account the fact that one or another, one way or another, is to focus on some money transferred from abroad, resources and everything else. That is, everyone is trying to somehow cling to their source of financing. There are a lot of separate political forces.

What is the Indian state? India is a country with a very high degree of federalization, the organizational structure of the Indian state means that elections are held there, and as a result, a government is formed following these elections, which has a very high degree of autonomy. The Kashmir government has still had a special degree of autonomy, even higher, thanks to a special status. From him, the Indian government in Delhi expected that it would hold some promotions against separatists.

But those people who were in power in Kashmir until recently were, as a rule, were not at all interested in speaking to the silent guides of the Indian political will. They tried to extinguish the separatist bonfire, retaining some levers of influence on what was happening. Without destroying the separatists, but trying to make peace with them. That is, the Kashmir situation itself is completely different from some familiar picture, when, for example, there is a certain central government and there are freedom-loving separatists who are fighting against it. In this case, the local separatist movement is partially supported by local official politicians, and partially local politicians are trying to repay it somehow.

- Is this the current decision of the government of India turned out to be unexpected and swift? Or, as they say, everything went to this, all this was brewing and everyone who was interested in the issue was ready for a long time?

The checkpoint of the Indian Army in the city of Jammu. August 6, 2019

- BDP, the Indian People’s Party, Bharatiya Dzhanat Party, starting in 1951, included in its promises, this is its program to cancel the special territorial status of Kashmir. But almost 70 years have passed, and the BDP was already in power under the atal of Bikhari Vajpai , but she did nothing to cancel the status of Kashmir. Narendra Modi did nothing in his first time. And many Indians are accustomed to the fact that this is just such a standard promise that will never be fulfilled. And nothing gave reason to assume that this would happen right now. Nevertheless, apparently, the BDP, and Modya directly, just waited for them to have the vast majority wherever possible, and made this decision very quickly, without any difficult discussions. If they had to somehow discuss, discuss this business, the whole idea would become public. And Pakistan would be ready, he could have time to start a diplomatic attack on India, contact the UN earlier.

There%27s Been Angry Speeches in #pakistan from Politicians to GHQ. The Army Says It%27s Prepart to go to any exten for Kashmiri PEOPLE. While @imrankhanpti Called the Latest Development in Indian-Held #kashmir a manifling of the ideology of racism & hatelatest on @ajenglish pic.twitter.com/mfrcormzs

- Osama Bin Javaid (@osamabinjavaid) August 7, 2019

And after all, the Indians did a very good preparatory work. Right before the announcement of the decision on territorial reform, they, under various pretexts, took out all tourists and pilgrims from Kashmir (and this is a region that largely living in tourism, including foreign and religious) and after that, very quickly and very decisively, threw the troops there, chopped off the Internet and telephone communications and actually blocked the possibility of mass protests. That is, the decision ripened for a long time, prepared for it for a long time, direct preparation, without any leaks, began a few months ago - and therefore, in fact, such an effect of surprise was achieved.

-How can Pakistan now affect the situation, do anything but verbal demarchees, appeals to the world community, calls, angry complaints, and so on?

- No way. In reality, Islamabad does not have the opportunity to influence anything. Because Pakistan found these events by surprise. The military version is absolutely not on the agenda, since the Pakistani army is not ready for it, and India has overwhelming military superiority. Somehow starting a war of any scale-for the sake of Kashmir Pakistan is not ready and will not do this. Most likely, moral, and not only moral, support on his part of separatist movements in Kashmir will intensify.

Pakistan found these events by surprise

Most likely, Pakistan will diplomatically act in two directions. Firstly, he will try to “Islamize the situation” as much as possible , that is, to attract Muslim countries to their side, arguing that India violates the rights of Kashmir Muslims. These will, of course, be the countries of the Persian Gulf, as well as, for example, Malaysia, Türkiye. And, having secured their support, try to contact the UN with a protest. Because the Kashmir problem is an international conflict, it is recognized as an international conflict. And therefore, Islamabad can try to play the fact that Delhi is doing something unilaterally there. But, again, India has something to fend off, because Pakistan even earlier he himself changed the control regime in his Kashmir territories, and moreover, even some of them transferred to China.

And the second, perhaps, the most beautiful option would be if Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan would now turn to US President Donald Trump-since Trump unexpectedly offered his mediation in resolving the Kashmir crisis. India, after all, is categorically against the intervention of any third country in the resolution of this conflict, and if Trump and the United States are now drawn into this problem and will insist on somehow participating in its resolution, then he will be divided in a very unpleasant situation. India will have to or hard enough to abandon the mediation of the United States, and it is really tough to do it, because this is not the first time that Washington is trying to "participate", or - you will have to make concessions. But then this will mean a rather serious national humiliation for her.

-Or maybe Islamabad is now threatening to somehow deliberate that he will ask Peking? Given their growing "friendship", various joint Sino-Pakistani grandiose projects and also that China, in fact, is also a participant in the Kashmir dispute, although the youngest in this context?

- Pakistan has already hinted at such an opportunity. He stated that India with his actions "complicates its relations with neighboring nuclear powers." Considering that India has only two neighboring nuclear powers, and one of them is Pakistan, it is clear which way was the hint. But China is not at all interested in getting into the Kashmir crisis and spoiling relations with the Indians. Now the relations of Beijing and Delhi are experiencing a rapprochement period. Slowly, this rapprochement, of course, will be exhausted, since India always seeks to balance, observing strategic autonomy, and not get closer to anyone. But while China is more and more investing in India, the Indian-Chinese turnover is growing, and most importantly, now China does not affect this Kashmir problem at all.

I want to express my main idea: in fact, it may very well be that this course of the Narendra Modi will completely unexpectedly serve the resolution of the Kashmir crisis! Because nobody likes this ancient ball of sore problems, neither Pakistanis, nor Indians, nor Chinese. The Kashmir conflict strongly interferes with the development of the economy, the development of normal relations. Of course, there are forces in all these states, especially in Pakistan, who are interested in extracting eternal political benefits from this, but it is clear that the Kashmir problem economically interferes with Pakistan. And in all three countries there are quite sound minds that understand that the status quo that has now developed cannot be changed in any way.

That is, there is no military path that would unite Kashmir again, who would suddenly allow the Indian Kashmir to attach to the Azad-Kashmir under Pakistani control. As there is no option that would allow India to get the whole Jammu and Kashmir to which she claims. China, in principle, does not need these territories at all, he has already received everything he considers his own, Aksai-chin plus another part of the Pakistani territory, and all this is more than suitable because it covers the safety issues of its infrastructure projects.

The Pakistani military taught the treatment of weapons of teachers of rural schools in Azad-Kashmir. March 2019

Theoretically, the best option would be now, in my opinion, to simply recognize the current situation, and instead of these control lines, to conduct universally recognized international boundaries. Now there are two lines in Jamma and Kashmire - Loc and Lac, separating the Pakistanis from the Indians, and Indians from the Chinese. If you turn them into normal boundaries, then the Kashmir crisis will simply resolve in itself, disappear. How all the greater internal problems of India and Pakistan associated with Kashmir will disappear. The Indians have Kashmir protests, the Pakistanis has a problem with Gilgit-Baltistan . Because formally Gilgit-Baltistan is part of the Azad-Kashmir, but located directly under the Pakistani administration. At the same time, the inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan themselves look strong enough into the future, since they absolutely do not want to go back to control under the control of the self-proclaimed Azad-Kashmir unrecognized by the world. They want to become normal Pakistani citizens, to get Pakistani passports so that Gilgit-Baltistan turns into another ordinary Pakistani province. If, following the example of India, Pakistan conducts his own structural reforms in the same way, that is, it eliminates Gilgit-Baltistan as part of the Azad-Kashmir, turning it into a direct controlled territory, it may very well be that the Kashmir issue will soon be resolved.