On the eve of the state of emergency

Four scenarios for a political crisis in Moscow

Imagine that from tomorrow, from zero o'clock, due to threats to the sovereignty and traditional values ​​of our people, caused by interference in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation by foreign states and the actions of national traitors paid for by them, a state of emergency is introduced throughout the country. It includes the abolition of elections at all levels, the restriction of the operation of certain articles of the Constitution, the possibility of imposing a curfew, and temporary control over the media. A state of emergency is introduced to protect the integrity and independence of our Motherland and to ensure the safety and peaceful labor of citizens of the Russian Federation.

Well, maybe not tomorrow, but in two weeks. Maybe it won’t happen at all - this is not an insider, but a hypothesis - I would like to be mistaken. But they have already said everything about foreign interference, about the "fifth column" and so on. Let's see what are the options for the development of events in recent weeks, what they can lead to?

First option. The ruling group realizes the depth of the abyss into which it has led the country, and enters into negotiations on the conditions and procedure for leaving power.

This is a very good, peaceful option. His flaw is he's incredible.

Second. The authorities will somehow agree with the leaders of the protesters, outbid or intimidate them. But they definitely won’t succeed - the heroes of today’s confrontation have no way back. You can, of course, be imprisoned seriously or even killed (God forbid, of course, but this cannot be ruled out). But that won't do anything either. The authorities, with their stupid vertical thinking, do not understand that thousands of people are leaving not because Navalny or Yashin called for this, but because they are united by the word "got it." There will be no such leaders, one of them will betray, there will be others, and everything will continue.

Third. The protests will continue for some time according to the already formed scenario - "festivities", dispersal, detentions, indignation, courts. And then they go down. The state of joyful excitement cannot last long, fatigue and disappointment will set in. Again, as at the beginning of the twentieth century, someone will emigrate, someone will fall into mysticism. The number of suicides will increase. Someone traditionally gets drunk. For the authorities, this is an ideal option - they made a fuss, made some noise, and everything calmed down. They are probably counting on him.

But there is also bad news for the authorities. A certain percentage of the protesters will not go into spiritualism or drunkenness - they will go into an illegal position. They will no longer denounce, but act. What comes after, we already went through a little more than a hundred years ago.

And the fourth option with the introduction of a state of emergency. Look at the situation through the eyes of the authorities. Even the modest level of civil and political freedoms that they have agreed to in recent years has proved to be an insurmountable barrier in their struggle for what they call stability, that is, for the preservation of themselves and their regime. There, behind the high red wall, far from all are idiots - they see that it is becoming increasingly difficult to get their candidates in the elections, they are aware of the fall not only in popularity, but also in legitimacy, they hear the menacing rumble of indignation over landfills, fires, floods and theft.

They are not able to stop all this within the framework of existing procedures, which means that the procedures must be canceled. In fact, this is what they have been doing all these twenty years. Their hatred for the dashing nineties, of which they themselves were not the best part, is not just a propaganda tool. It is sincere - it was then that a new state began to be created, which resolutely did not suit them and the state they inherited. In this new state, the people were declared not to be a hindrance, not an object of charity and care, not a reservoir of free labor - a subject. We have never had it like this - there was no need to negotiate with society. It was possible to carry out collectivization, to resettle entire nations or to ban, as Emperor Paul did, round hats, you could do anything. And then there are elections, parties, media, lawyers.

In the beginning, they quite successfully turned all institutions into a sham without the use of force, they simply outplayed everyone. And suddenly it broke.

Consider also that the biography, the career of people who make the most important decisions today, has prepared them for the fact that democracy is something weak and incomprehensible, and true wisdom and beauty are a soldier's system.

Of course, not Stalin's times. For the introduction of a state of emergency, reasons are needed - they are. Riots - invented, of course, but it does not matter, the hostile actions of the United States and NATO, the "fifth column" - where without it? And if they made such a decision, then they need not to stop, but to continue the protest, they need not to intimidate, but to demonstrate a mixture of toughness and weakness - exactly what pushes people to continue the confrontation. This is what they do.

They allow their sadists to beat people, but, obviously, they do not give a special command to do this - if they did, then there would be thousands not detained, but crippled.

They put them in jail for a day - a one-year term may be ahead, but so far there are none. And what is a day for a guy who came out for a just cause? Order.

Of course, they did not invent all this in advance, but they may well take advantage of what happened and behave in such a way that the further development of events will give them a reason understandable to people for introducing an open dictatorship. They can do it in literally days. They can, if they decide not to cancel the elections on September 8 - and they have already begun to talk about this - depending on the results of the vote.

If they are still able to separate real results from falsifications, then it will be important for them to find out how much they have lost? If it turns out that their level of support has not decreased or decreased slightly, you can continue to rule as before. Well, no, it's not.

Paradoxically, it turns out that by going to rallies or voting against their henchmen, we are bringing the state of emergency closer, which may not be bloody, but it certainly will not be humane, and it will end completely badly. But, first, the reality must be understood, even if it is extremely unpleasant. Knowledge is an element of freedom. Secondly, our loyalty, if we suddenly decide to be loyal, will not change anything, only slightly delay. And most importantly, how will we look in the mirror if we humble ourselves?