Translated material
What will the growth of protests in Moscow lead to
There is no good way out of the crisis in Moscow. The compromise could be a change in the Dragon Elections legislation - but the opposition does not require this, resting on the local problem of current pride -dreams. And the authorities are to concede where they do not ask, it makes no sense at all.
The head of the analytical department of Taiga.info Alexei Mazur about what protests in Moscow means and what the strategy of negotiations in the spirit of "kill yourself against the wall yourself" threatens.
Do not swear to another pit, you yourself will fall into it. This is perhaps the best moral from the current Moscow crisis.
Firstly, I immediately want to cool hot heads-this is not a revolution. And not transit of power. In the best (or worst, how to see) this case is a step towards it. You know how in accidents at nuclear power plants. The first protection system did not work, it does not matter - there are three more. Two did not work - already a serious emergency. Three did not work - just the trouble, the harbinger of the disaster.
Protests in Moscow is a local story. The same local as a square in Yekaterinburg, a landfill in Shies, elections in Khakassia or tariff wars in Novosibirsk. The only difference is that Moscow is the capital, everything that happens in it is immediately interpreted as a federal history, and all aspects of the confrontation are so related to it.
The course of the events that we observe looks like a series of government mistakes. Standard errors. About the same thing happened under Yanukovych in Ukraine. There were several thousand students on the Maidan, they were beaten with batons, there were tens of thousands, or even a hundred. The response of the authorities “beat a little, we must more” look logical, but stupid - and how much more? And from the guns of the buckshot at what point should you start (in the XVIII - XIX centuries the city planned, based on the convenience of acceleration of crowds with buckshot)?
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Power incorporates gigantic reputational losses. How should police officers and Rosgvardists feel today? They were involved in the thousands in Moscow, two thousand detentions were drawn, of which only a dozen or two were on social networks as an example of atrocities and unjustified violence. But because of them, a sharply negative attitude towards everyone who takes part in stripping streets from protesters. Police and Rosgvardists are forced to hide their faces. And tomorrow I’m ashamed to say where they work, and the day after tomorrow you will not meet a decent girl.
And all this for what? So as not to let several bosoters into the Moscow City Duma?
It seems that the authorities have gone crazy and lost adequacy. But read my reconstruction of the “meetings” about “disperse - not to disperse”, and you will see that an iron, seemingly logic leads to grandiose errors.
Today they say and write that 50 thousand, they say, a little. Not the same one thousand, as the organizers stated. And not 150, as it was at the peak of swamp protests.
But this is all nonsense. The question is in the trend - will decline or will not go. Do they extinguish or make the measures? And while it turns out that they are kindling. And now one degree of protection has flew, the second ... What next? Each new round of escalation increases risks.
The bad story is that there is no good way out. The opposition wants to register its candidates, but the authorities no longer have legal ways to register them. To cancel the election is also not.
The compromise could be a change in the Dragon Elections legislation - but the opposition does not require this, resting on the local problem of the current Moscow City Duma. And the authorities are to concede where they do not ask - it makes no sense at all.
It would be possible to cancel the elections in case of voluntary withdrawal of all candidates. But in all districts at the same time it is extremely difficult and will look even more grotesque than the non -registration of candidates depending on their political views.
What is good in the current story? The problem of filtering candidates, depending on the degree of their opposition, fell into the center of public attention. And because of the tactical impasse that arose in the Moscow Moscow region, this problem will pulsate and shimmer with all the colors for another month. And the problem, one way or another, will have to be solved. You can’t fly under the bed out of the closet under the bed. In addition, the topic became toxic - in the next electoral cycle, following the example of Moscow, the protest against the non -me candidates will begin to promote in the regions.
Bad is that the spiral of escalation is still in the ascending phase. The final round does not threaten anything good. As the example of Ukraine, and Russia itself shows, can be demolished by a protest, but it is unlikely that new civilian institutions are building. The people who defended the White House in 1991 dumped home, and the Yeltsins and the Khasbulatovs remained and divided the power lying in the square. And then they divided it again, and then - the remnants of the economy.
Any conflict is better to resolve a reasonable compromise. Then, in the end, a reasonable and balanced political system is built.
In our country, the negotiation strategy in the spirit of "kill yourself against the wall yourself." And this threatens the eternal cycle of turning the boards and began from scratch.